# Ahold Delhaize (ADRNY) Sector: Grocery retail | Field | Value | |---|---| | Price | $39.22 | | Market cap | $35B | | Intrinsic value source | Analysts | | Data as of | 2026-11-12 | | Next earnings | 2027-02-17 (confirmed) | Analysts: Very bullish Picks: Top pick Discount category: Far below intrinsic value ## In short The market prices Ahold Delhaize as a mature grocer with slow growth in the United States and thin margins, and a sales recovery with steady margins and a 2027 buyback can lift its value. ## Themes and gap - Themes: Weak consumer (weak-consumer) - Gap type: Can close (closable) - Why: The Q4 report on February 17, 2027 shows whether sales in the United States recover and whether the incident stays inside its cost range. ## About Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V. is a Dutch food retail group with its head office in Zaandam. It serves over 77 million customers each week in Europe, the United States and Indonesia through 17 local brands, including Albert Heijn and Food Lion, and the online retailer bol. At the end of Q3 2026 it had 9,832 stores, including franchise and affiliate stores: 2,021 in the United States and 7,811 in Europe. Q3 2026 net sales were €23.1 billion, online sales were €2.6 billion and the underlying operating margin was 4.1%. Frans Muller is President and Chief Executive Officer. The shares trade on Euronext Amsterdam and Brussels (AD). The pick is the American Depositary Receipt (ADR) that trades over the counter in the United States (ADRNY), in US dollars. Ahold Delhaize's Annual Report 2025 says that one ADR represents one ordinary share, that the program is a sponsored Level I program and that J.P. Morgan is the depositary. Ahold Delhaize is not an SEC filer. It reports in euros under IFRS in its own reports. ## Thesis The market prices Ahold Delhaize as a mature grocer with slow growth in the United States and a thin profit margin. Comparable sales in the United States grew 0.5% in Q3 2026. Lower SNAP benefits, a cyclospora outbreak, egg price deflation and pharmacy pricing changes held back growth. In October 2026 a cybersecurity incident hit online and supply-chain operations in the Benelux and the United States. The company expects it to cut Q4 net sales by €200 million to €250 million and operating income by €75 million to €100 million, and it cut its 2026 outlook for earnings per share growth to low single digits. It also agreed to buy Tesco Czechia and Slovakia for an enterprise value of about €1.2 billion, with closing expected in 2027. For the price to rise, United States sales must return to steady growth when the one-time effects pass, the cost of the incident must stay inside the stated range, and the underlying operating margin must stay near 4%. A share buyback of €1 billion in 2027 lifts earnings per share if profit holds. The Q4 report on February 17, 2027 is the next test. If United States sales recover and margins hold, the gap can close within about two years. If United States growth stays near zero, the gap could last longer. The ADR is priced in US dollars, so the euro exchange rate also moves its price. ## Checkpoints - Feb 17, 2027: Q4 2026 results: United States sales and incident cost. Status: Pending. Watch: United States comparable sales growth above 0.5% and a cost of the incident inside the stated range pass; weaker sales or a higher cost fails. - May 12, 2027: Q1 2027 results: United States sales. Status: Pending. Watch: United States comparable sales growth excluding gasoline above the Q3 2026 rate of 0.5% passes; a lower rate fails. ## Balance sheet Net debt was €16,087 million at September 27, 2026, with lease liabilities of €10,572 million in the non-current part, against €15,961 million at June 28, 2026 and €14,699 million at December 28, 2025. Gross debt was €19,747 million and cash and similar items were €3,660 million. In Q3 2026 free cash flow was €445 million, dividends paid were €445 million and the share buyback was €285 million. In the first three quarters, Ahold Delhaize bought back 23,847,837 of its own shares at an average price of €35.41. It had 865,173,863 common shares outstanding at September 27, 2026, against 886,877,259 at December 28, 2025. All amounts are in euros. As of 2026-09-27. Sources: - https://media.aholddelhaize.com/media/voehurnq/ahold-delhaize-q3-2026-interim-report.pdf ## Dividends - Dividend yield: 3.6% (last 12 months, at the current price) - Paid per share, last 12 months: $1.415 (2 payments) - Current annual rate: $1.415 (the last two payments) - Latest ex-dividend date: 2026-08-17, $0.589 per share - Growth from 2020 to 2025: -7.0% a year - Growth from 2015 to 2025: 3.1% a year Dividends per share by year: 2016: $2.0542, 2017: $0.605, 2018: $0.776, 2019: $1.12, 2020: $1.096, 2021: $0.985, 2022: $1.043, 2023: $1.18, 2024: $1.209, 2025: $0.761. Source: company filings and market data, read on 2026-11-13. ## Recent events - 2026-11-04: Ahold Delhaize reported Q3 2026 results. Net sales were €23.1 billion, comparable sales excluding gasoline rose 1.2% (0.5% in the United States and 2.1% in Europe), and diluted underlying earnings per share were €0.69. It cut its 2026 outlook: underlying operating margin approaching 4.0%, low-single-digit growth in diluted underlying earnings per share at constant rates, and free cash flow of around €2.1 billion. It announced a €1 billion share buyback to start at the beginning of 2027. It also said that a cybersecurity incident in October 2026 mainly affected its online capabilities in the Benelux and the United States and its Benelux supply-chain operations, that it has restored most affected operations and that bol was not affected. - 2026-10-30: Ahold Delhaize agreed to buy 100% of Tesco Czechia and Slovakia. The enterprise value is about €1.2 billion, or €1.7 billion after IFRS 16 lease adjustment. It expects to close in 2027 after regulatory clearances and to fund the deal with committed financing and existing resources. - 2026-08-05: Ahold Delhaize announced an interim dividend for 2026 of €0.51 per common share. It paid the dividend on August 27, 2026. ## Risks - High: Slow United States growth. Comparable sales excluding gasoline in the United States grew 0.5% in Q3 2026, and the underlying operating margin there fell 0.3 percentage points to 4.3%. The United States is more than half of net sales. - Medium: Cybersecurity. The October 2026 incident is expected to cut Q4 operating income by €75 million to €100 million. More response costs or a new incident could cost more and hurt trust in the online business. - Medium: Thin margins. The underlying operating margin was 4.1% in Q3 2026. A small rise in costs or a price cut to win customers can remove much of the profit. - Medium: Debt and leases. Net debt was €16,087 million at September 27, 2026, of which most is lease liabilities. The Tesco Czechia and Slovakia deal adds financing in 2027. - Low: Currency and trading. The ADR is priced in US dollars, and the profit is in euros and dollars, so exchange rates move the ADR price. The ADR trades over the counter, with an average daily volume of 78,452 in 2025, so it is thinner than the shares in Amsterdam. ## Links - Page: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/ADRNY/ - History of changes: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/ADRNY/history/ - JSON with full history: https://picks.utilarium.app/data/company/ADRNY.json > Picks is a personal record of stock picks. It gives general opinions about stocks, including a "Top pick" label. They are not tailored to your needs, goals or risk tolerance. Kevin is not a registered adviser and relies on the general-advice exemption in Canadian securities law (NI 31-103 s.8.25). Do your own research, or ask a registered adviser. Kevin may hold any stock on this site. Prices, intrinsic values and ratings can be delayed or wrong; check the original source. Full disclaimer: /disclaimer/.