# Affirm Holdings (AFRM)

Sector: Consumer credit and payments

| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Price | $65.84 |
| Market cap | $22B |
| Intrinsic value source | Analysts |
| Data as of | 2026-11-13 |
| Next earnings | 2027-02-04 (estimate) |

Analysts: Bullish

Picks: Research only

Discount category: Close to intrinsic value

## In short

The market weighs the fast loan growth and rising profit of Affirm against loan losses and its need for steady funding, and steady credit results through 2027 can lift its value.

## Themes and gap

- Themes: Weak consumer (weak-consumer), Interest rates (interest-rates)
- Gap type: Can close (closable)
- Why: The Q2 fiscal 2027 report, expected in early February 2027, covers the holiday quarter and shows whether growth, loan losses and the margin stay on the guided path.

## About

Affirm Holdings, Inc. (Affirm) is based in San Francisco, California. It offers loans that a person repays over time at online and in-store checkout, and the Affirm Card, which lets a person choose to pay over time. It earns network fees from merchants, interest on loans and gains on loan sales. It sells loans to capital partners and funds the rest with warehouse lines and securitizations. The fiscal year ends on June 30. GMV was $14.4 billion in Q1 fiscal 2027, the quarter ended September 30, 2026, and revenue was $1,262 million. Affirm had 28.7 million active consumers and 6.0 million active cardholders. The Class A common stock trades on Nasdaq in US dollars. Affirm files 10-K and 10-Q reports.

## Thesis

The price of Affirm depends on whether it can keep loan volume growing above 30% a year while credit losses and funding costs stay low. In Q1 fiscal 2027 GMV grew 34%, revenue grew 35% and operating income rose to $187.1 million from $63.7 million. The provision for credit losses grew 59% to $259.4 million, faster than revenue, and Affirm depends on loan buyers, warehouse lines and securitizations, which depend on credit markets. Amazon made 20% of GMV. For the price to hold or rise, four things must be true. GMV growth must stay above 30%, with more volume from the Affirm Card. Loan losses must stay close to what the allowance expects. Funding must stay available with the equity capital that Affirm needs at 5% or less of its portfolio, as it guides. The operating margin must stay above the 14.75% that Affirm guides for fiscal 2027. The Q2 fiscal 2027 report, expected in early February 2027, covers the holiday quarter and is the next test.

## Checkpoints

- Feb 4, 2027 (estimate): Q2 fiscal 2027 results (holiday quarter). Status: Pending. Watch: GMV is in the guided range of $17.9 billion to $18.2 billion and the operating margin is in the range of 11.5% to 13.5%, and this passes; GMV below the range or a loss provision that grows much faster than revenue fails.
- Q2 2027 (estimate): First Affirm Edge pilots. Status: Pending. Watch: The first pilots go live in the first calendar half of 2027, as Affirm expects, and this passes; no pilot by June 2027 fails.

## Balance sheet

- Cash: $3.0B
- Debt: $10.3B
- Net debt: $7.3B
- Last debt due: 2030

At September 30, 2026, Affirm had cash and cash equivalents of $2,072.4 million and securities available for sale of $932.8 million. Loans held for investment were $10,114.6 million. Funding debt was $2,904.5 million and notes issued by securitization trusts were $6,221.2 million, and these fund and are secured by loans. Convertible senior notes had a carrying amount of $1,130.6 million: $221.3 million of 0% notes due November 15, 2026 and $920.0 million of 0.75% notes due December 15, 2029. The debt in the tiles is the sum of these carrying amounts, $10,256.3 million. Stockholders' equity was $5,751.2 million. Equity capital required for funding is expected to stay at or below 5% of the total platform portfolio.

As of 2026-09-30.

Sources:

- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1820953/000162828026071153/afrm-20260930.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1820953/000162828026071005/affirmfq127shareholderle.htm

## Dividends

Affirm Holdings does not pay a dividend.

Source: company filings and market data, read on 2026-11-13.

## Recent events

- 2026-11-05: Affirm reported Q1 fiscal 2027 results. GMV rose 34% to $14.4 billion, revenue rose 35% to $1,262 million, revenue less transaction costs was $617 million, operating income was $187.1 million and net income was $164.2 million. It guided Q2 GMV to $17.9 billion to $18.2 billion and fiscal 2027 GMV to more than $65.25 billion.
- 2026-08-27: Affirm reported fiscal Q4 2026 results. The board named Michael Linford, the chief operating officer, as President from August 27, 2026. Libor Michalek stays as President for engineering, risk, operations, product and design.
- 2026-06-24: The board added Ryan Schneider, the former chief executive of Anywhere Real Estate and former head of the card business of Capital One, as a director from July 1, 2026.
- 2026-06-18: Affirm raised its unsecured revolving credit commitment from $330 million to $675 million and moved its maturity two years to June 18, 2029, with a condition tied to its 0% convertible notes due 2026.

## Latest news and filings

- Last earnings: 2026-11-05 (8-K: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1820953/000162828026071005/)
- Next earnings: 2027-02-04 (expected; the company has not confirmed it)

| Filed | Form | Headline | Period end | XBRL document | Link |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2026-11-05 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Sep 30, 2026 | 2026-09-30 | afrm-20260930 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1820953/000162828026071153/afrm-20260930.htm |
| 2026-11-05 | 8-K | Earnings release |  | afrm-20261105 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1820953/000162828026071005/ |
| 2026-08-27 | 10-K | Annual report for the period ended Jun 30, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | afrm-20260630 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1820953/000162828026059279/afrm-20260630.htm |
| 2026-08-27 | 8-K | Earnings release and Change of directors or officers |  | afrm-20260825 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1820953/000162828026059271/ |
| 2026-06-25 | 8-K | New material agreement and Change of directors or officers |  | afrm-20260618 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1820953/000162828026045491/afrm-20260618.htm |
| 2026-05-07 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Mar 31, 2026 | 2026-03-31 | afrm-20260331 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1820953/000162828026032294/afrm-20260331.htm |
| 2026-05-07 | 8-K | Earnings release |  | afrm-20260507 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1820953/000162828026032105/ |
| 2026-02-05 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Dec 31, 2025 | 2025-12-31 | afrm-20251231 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1820953/000162828026005855/afrm-20251231.htm |
| 2026-02-05 | 8-K | Earnings release |  | afrm-20260205 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1820953/000162828026005772/ |
| 2026-01-16 | 8-K | Change of directors or officers |  | afrm-20260113 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1820953/000162828026002442/afrm-20260113.htm |

Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 1820953): https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001820953&type=&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

## Risks

- High: Credit losses can rise. The provision for credit losses was $259.4 million in Q1 fiscal 2027, up 59%, against revenue up 35%. Loans held for investment were $10.1 billion, and a weaker consumer would raise delinquencies.
- High: Funding depends on credit markets. Funding debt was $2.9 billion and notes issued by securitization trusts were $6.2 billion at September 30, 2026. If investors stop buying loans or spreads widen, funding costs rise and growth can slow.
- Medium: One partner is a large part of volume. Amazon made 20% of GMV in Q1 fiscal 2027, and the top five partners made 40%.
- Medium: Interest rates can raise costs. The outlook assumes that short-term benchmark rates rise during fiscal 2027, which raises the cost of funding.
- Low: Warrants for partners add cost and dilution. Enterprise warrant expense is higher in Q2 fiscal 2027, and the exercise price of Amazon warrants was cut to $63.06 per share in November 2025.

## Links

- Page: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/AFRM/
- History of changes: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/AFRM/history/
- JSON with full history: https://picks.utilarium.app/data/company/AFRM.json

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