# Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)

Sector: Semiconductors

| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Price | $508.58 |
| Market cap | $834B |
| Intrinsic value source | Analysts |
| Data as of | 2026-11-10 |
| Next earnings | 2027-02-02 (estimate) |

Analysts: Bullish

Picks: Research only

Discount category: Close to intrinsic value

## In short

The market doubts that AMD can keep its AI growth against Nvidia, and an on-time MI450 ramp with new large customers and steady margins through 2027 can close the gap.

## Themes and gap

- Themes: AI supplier (ai-supplier), China and geopolitics (china-geopolitics), Tariffs and trade (trade-tariffs)
- Gap type: Can close (closable)
- Why: The Q4 2026 report in early February 2027 and the first gigawatt of MI450 deliveries to OpenAI and Meta in 2027 are dated checks that can close the gap within about two years.

## About

AMD designs processors and accelerators and uses outside foundries, mainly TSMC, to make them. It has three segments. Data Center sells EPYC server CPUs, Instinct GPUs for AI, Helios rack-scale systems and networking products; its revenue was $8.5 billion in Q3 2026. Client and Gaming sells Ryzen PC processors, Radeon graphics and custom chips for game consoles; its revenue was $3.7 billion. Embedded sells adaptive chips from the former Xilinx and embedded processors to industrial, automotive, communications and defense customers; its revenue was $1.1 billion. Total revenue was $34.6 billion in 2025 and $13.4 billion in Q3 2026. AMD and Intel are the two main makers of x86 processors. OpenAI and Meta each signed agreements to buy AMD Instinct GPUs and received warrants for AMD shares.

## Thesis

The market doubts that AMD can keep its fast AI data center growth for many years against Nvidia. Data Center revenue grew 97% in Q3 2026, and AMD guides Q4 2026 revenue to about $17 billion, a growth of about 66%. OpenAI and Meta each committed to buy one gigawatt of Instinct GPUs, and their warrants vest fully only at six gigawatts each. AMD set targets at its November 2025 Financial Analyst Day for revenue growth above 35% a year and non-GAAP EPS above $20 in three to five years, as press reports give them. Investors fear three things. Nvidia and its CUDA software can keep most of the AI accelerator market. GPU sales depend on two large buyers, OpenAI and Meta. The customer warrants and stock pay dilute shareholders. For the gap to close, three things must be true. The MI450 and Helios ramp must deliver the first gigawatt to OpenAI and Meta on time in 2027, with a non-GAAP gross margin near 55% or higher. More large customers must buy Instinct GPUs, so that sales do not depend on two buyers. EPYC must keep taking share in servers as AI agents need more CPUs. The Q4 2026 report, expected in early February 2027, gives the first test. If deliveries stay on time and new customers sign, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters.

## Checkpoints

- Feb 2, 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 results: Helios and MI450 ramp. Status: Pending. Watch: Revenue at or above about $17 billion with a non-GAAP gross margin near 55% and a strong Q1 2027 guidance pass; a miss on revenue or a lower gross margin fail.
- 2027 (estimate): First gigawatt of Instinct GPUs to OpenAI and Meta. Status: Pending. Watch: Delivery of the first gigawatt to each customer and new large Instinct customers pass; delays or no new customers fail.

## Balance sheet

- Cash: $15.8B
- Debt: $7.1B
- Net cash: $8.7B
- Undrawn credit line: $5.0B, to May 2031
- Debt due within 12 months: $0.0M
- Last debt due: 2052

AMD has more cash than debt. At September 26, 2026, cash and cash equivalents were $7.40 billion and short-term investments were $8.37 billion, for $15.78 billion. Debt principal was $7.13 billion of senior notes due from 2028 to 2052, with a carrying value of $7.08 billion and nothing due within one year; AMD added $4.75 billion of notes in August 2026. It had no commercial paper outstanding and no borrowings under its $5.0 billion revolving credit facility of May 2026. Operating cash flow was $6.52 billion in the first nine months of 2026, and capital spending was $1.85 billion. Inventories rose to $11.46 billion from $7.92 billion at the end of 2025 as AMD built Helios and MI450 supply. A warrant liability of $1.2 billion for customer warrants is in other long-term liabilities. The World Labs purchase is paid in shares, and the Taalas purchase uses cash and shares.

As of 2026-09-26.

Sources:

- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000188/q32026991.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000191/amd-20260926.htm

## Dividends

Advanced Micro Devices does not pay a dividend.

Source: company filings and market data, read on 2026-11-09.

## Recent events

- 2026-11-03: AMD reported Q3 2026 results. Revenue grew 45% to a record $13.4 billion, and Data Center revenue grew 97% to $8.5 billion on Instinct MI450 and EPYC sales. Gaming revenue fell 40%. GAAP EPS was $1.46, after a $1.1 billion non-cash charge for the change in fair value of customer warrants, and non-GAAP EPS was $2.09. AMD guided Q4 2026 revenue to about $17 billion, plus or minus 3%, with a non-GAAP gross margin of about 55%.
- 2026-09-26: AMD agreed to buy World Labs, a model research company, for about $8.2 billion, to be paid in AMD shares. In August 2026, it agreed to buy Taalas, a maker of inference chips, in a cash and stock deal valued at about $2.9 billion, including up to about $1.4 billion of contingent payments. AMD expects both deals to close in Q4 2026.
- 2026-08-13: AMD sold $4.75 billion of senior notes due 2029, 2031, 2033 and 2036.
- 2026-08-04: AMD reported Q2 2026 results. Revenue was $11.5 billion, and Data Center revenue grew 107% to $6.7 billion. GAAP EPS was $1.38 and non-GAAP EPS was $1.66.
- 2026-05-13: AMD signed a new five-year $5.0 billion revolving credit facility to replace its $3.0 billion facility.
- 2026-05-05: AMD reported Q1 2026 results. Revenue was $10.3 billion, and Data Center revenue grew 57% to $5.8 billion. Non-GAAP EPS was $1.37.
- 2026-02-23: AMD issued Meta a warrant for up to 160 million AMD shares at $0.01 per share. Meta committed to buy one gigawatt of Instinct GPUs. The warrant vests in steps up to six gigawatts of purchases, and the last step needs an AMD stock price of $600.
- 2026-02-03: AMD reported 2025 results. Revenue grew to a record $34.6 billion, GAAP EPS was $2.65 and non-GAAP EPS was $4.17.

## Latest news and filings

- Last earnings: 2026-11-03 (8-K: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000188/)
- Next earnings: 2027-02-02 (expected; the company has not confirmed it)

| Filed | Form | Headline | Period end | XBRL document | Link |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2026-11-04 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Sep 26, 2026 | 2026-09-26 | amd-20260926 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000191/amd-20260926.htm |
| 2026-11-03 | 8-K | Earnings release and Investor disclosure |  | amd-20261103 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000188/amd-20261103.htm |
| 2026-09-28 | 8-K | Current report |  | amd-20260926 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000182/amd-20260926.htm |
| 2026-08-19 | 8-K | Change of directors or officers |  | amd-20260817 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000163/amd-20260817.htm |
| 2026-08-17 | 8-K | New material agreement and New debt or financial obligation |  |  | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000119312526354029/d142696d8k.htm |
| 2026-08-05 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Jun 27, 2026 | 2026-06-27 | amd-20260627 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/amd-20260627.htm |
| 2026-08-04 | 8-K | Earnings release and Investor disclosure |  | amd-20260804 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000121/amd-20260804.htm |
| 2026-07-01 | 8-K | Change of directors or officers |  | amd-20260626 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000115/amd-20260626.htm |
| 2026-05-15 | 8-K | New material agreement and End of a material agreement |  |  | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000119312526226746/d118163d8k.htm |
| 2026-05-06 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Mar 28, 2026 | 2026-03-28 | amd-20260328 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000076/amd-20260328.htm |

Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 2488): https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000002488&type=&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

## Risks

- High: Nvidia leads the market for AI accelerators, and its CUDA software is widely used. If MI450 and later GPUs do not win more customers, Data Center growth can slow.
- High: The warrants to OpenAI and Meta can each give up to 160 million shares at $0.01, about 20% of the 1,640 million shares outstanding together. The shares vest only with GPU purchases and stock price targets up to $600, but they dilute shareholders when they vest. Changes in their fair value also move GAAP earnings.
- Medium: Sales of Instinct GPUs depend on a few large buyers. A delay of their data center plans, or a slower MI450 ramp, can lower revenue in a quarter.
- Medium: Export rules can limit sales of AI chips to China and other countries. In 2025, U.S. export rules on AI chips for China caused inventory charges at AMD.
- Medium: AMD depends on TSMC for its most advanced chips and on memory makers for HBM. Supply limits or higher memory prices can limit shipments or lower margins.
- Low: The World Labs and Taalas purchases cost about $11 billion in total and add new kinds of businesses. If they do not add value, the shares and cash spent on them are lost to shareholders.

## Links

- Page: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/AMD/
- History of changes: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/AMD/history/
- JSON with full history: https://picks.utilarium.app/data/company/AMD.json

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