# ASE Technology (ASX)

Sector: Semiconductor packaging and testing

| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Price | $34.36 |
| Intrinsic value source | AI estimate |
| Data as of | 2026-11-10 |
| Next earnings | 2027-01-29 (estimate) |

Analysts: Very bullish

Picks: Research only

Discount category: Far above intrinsic value

## In short

Investors pay more than the AI estimate for the AI packaging growth of ASE, and only strong AI chip demand with rising margins in 2027 can earn it.

## Themes and gap

- Themes: AI supplier (ai-supplier), China and geopolitics (china-geopolitics), Tariffs and trade (trade-tariffs)
- Gap type: Can close (closable)
- Why: The monthly revenue reports and the Q4 2026 report in early February 2027 show whether AI packaging demand and margins keep rising.

## About

ASE Technology (ASE) is the largest provider of outsourced assembly and test services for semiconductors. It packages and tests chips for chip designers and chip makers, including advanced packages for AI and high-performance computing chips, and it makes packaging materials. Its subsidiary USI gives electronic manufacturing services (EMS), such as the assembly of modules and systems. In Q3 2026, packaging gave about 50%, testing 11% and EMS 38% of net revenues of NT$244,161 million. ASE has plants in Taiwan, China, South Korea, Japan, Singapore, Malaysia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Mexico, Tunisia, the United States and Europe, and it had 119,346 employees at September 30, 2026. Its shares trade in Taipei, and its ADSs trade on the New York Stock Exchange. Each ADS represents two common shares. The head office is in Kaohsiung, Taiwan. Jason C.S. Chang is Chairman.

## Thesis

ASE trades above the AI estimate because investors pay for its fast growth in advanced packaging and testing for AI chips. In Q3 2026, net revenues rose 44.8% to NT$244,161 million, ATM revenues rose 51.0%, and the ATM operating margin rose to 20.0%. Net income attributable to shareholders rose to NT$26,996 million from NT$10,870 million. ASE expects Q4 2026 revenue to grow by 6% to 8% from Q3, with a higher operating margin. For the shares to keep this price, three things must be true. Demand for AI chips must stay strong in 2027, so that the new capacity fills. ATM margins must keep rising while ASE spends heavily on equipment, US$2,104 million in Q3 2026 alone. Trade rules between the United States, China and Taiwan must not cut its sales. The monthly revenue reports and the Q4 2026 report, expected in early February 2027, are the next tests. A slowdown in AI chip orders or lower margins can push the shares down to the AI estimate.

## Checkpoints

- Oct 29, 2026: Q3 2026 results: ATM growth and margins. Status: Passed. Watch: ATM revenue growth above 40% and a higher ATM margin pass; a lower ATM margin fails. Outcome: ATM revenues rose 51.0%, and the ATM operating margin rose to 20.0% from 15.7% in Q2 2026.
- Jan 29, 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 results and 2027 outlook. Status: Pending. Watch: Q4 revenue growth of 6% to 8% with an operating margin of 14.5% or more passes; a lower margin fails.
- Q2 2027 (estimate): AI packaging demand in 2027. Status: Pending. Watch: Monthly ATM revenue growth above 30% from a year earlier in the first half of 2027 passes; a fall fails.

## Valuation

The intrinsic value for ASE Technology is an AI estimate from November 10, 2026. It is not an analyst's value. An AI research agent calculated it from ASE's filings. The company reports in New Taiwan dollars, and the estimate is in U.S. dollars per ADS. The method is a multiple of basic earnings per share for 2027. The Q3 2026 results (6-K, October 29, 2026) give basic EPS of NT$6.13 for Q3 2026, and the quarterly table of the earnings presentation gives NT$3.23 for Q1 2026 and NT$4.80 for Q2 2026, so NT$14.16 for the first nine months, and NT$9.37 for 2025. The presentation also expects Q4 2026 revenue growth of 6% to 8% from Q3 and an operating margin of 14.5% to 15.5%. On this basis, the estimate assumes basic EPS of about NT$21 for 2026. The annual report on Form 20-F for 2025 states that each ADS represents two common shares, and the Q3 2026 results give EPS of NT$6.13 per share as US$0.384 per ADS, which agrees with this ratio. The ADS price of $34.36 and the Taipei price of NT$561 on November 9, 2026 are also close to this ratio. EPS already includes the interest on debt, so the estimate makes no debt adjustment. It uses an exchange rate of NT$32.76 per U.S. dollar, the market rate on November 9, 2026, as an assumption. The EPS and the multiples in each case are assumptions. The low case assumes that AI chip demand slows and margins fall, with EPS of NT$21.0 for 2027, at 14 times. It gives NT$294 per share and $17.95 per ADS. The base case assumes EPS of NT$27.0, about 29% growth, at 18 times. It gives NT$486 per share and $29.67 per ADS. The high case assumes that advanced packaging and testing keep their fast growth, with EPS of NT$32.0, at 21 times. It gives NT$672 per share and $41.03 per ADS. The estimate assumes weights of 25%, 50% and 25%. The weighted intrinsic value is NT$484.50 per share and $29.58 per ADS. The value moves with the New Taiwan dollar. Cost advantage from scale and switching costs are the main sources of the advantage. ASE is the largest company in outsourced assembly and test, and its customers must qualify each package and test process, which takes time. But other assembly and test companies and the foundries also offer advanced packaging, and prices follow the chip cycle. The estimate expects the advantage to last 10 years or more, but not 20 years.

As of 2026-11-10.

Sources:

- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1122411/000095010326016324/dp255760_6k.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1122411/000095010326016323/dp255782_6k.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1122411/000119312526135585/d50802d20f.htm

## Balance sheet

- Cash: NT$88.4B
- Debt: NT$394.4B
- Net debt: NT$306.0B
- Interest cover: 13×
- Undrawn credit line: NT$457.3B
- Debt due within 12 months: NT$75.6B

ASE funds itself with bank loans, bonds, convertible bonds and cash flow. At September 30, 2026, short-term borrowings were NT$70,428 million, the current part of long-term debt NT$5,141 million, bonds payable NT$42,201 million and long-term borrowings NT$276,633 million, so debt was NT$394,403 million. Cash and cash equivalents were NT$88,421 million, and current financial assets were NT$19,517 million. Unused credit lines were NT$457,283 million. The company states a net debt to equity ratio of 0.66 and a current ratio of 1.16. Equity attributable to shareholders of the parent was NT$422,834 million. Equipment capital spending was US$2,104 million in Q3 2026. Interest cover is operating income divided by net interest expense for Q3 2026 (about NT$33,206 million, 13.6% of net revenues, against NT$2,611 million). There were 4,488,092,493 shares at September 30, 2026, including treasury shares held by subsidiaries. The cash dividend for 2025 is NT$6.6 per share.

As of 2026-09-30.

Sources:

- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1122411/000095010326016324/dp255760_6k.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1122411/000095010326016323/dp255782_6k.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1122411/000119312526135585/d50802d20f.htm

## Dividends

- Dividend yield: 1.2% (last 12 months, at the current price)
- Paid per share, last 12 months: $0.417 (1 payment)
- Current annual rate: $0.417 ($0.417 x 1 a year)
- Latest ex-dividend date: 2026-07-06, $0.417 per share
- Growth over the last 5 years: 6.7% a year
- Growth over the last 10 years: 5.2% a year

Dividends per share by year: 2016: $0.251, 2017: $0.231, 2018: $0.532, 2019: $0.16, 2020: $0.136, 2021: $0.302, 2022: $0.479, 2023: $0.571, 2024: $0.322, 2025: $0.356.

Source: company filings and market data, read on 2026-11-10.

## Recent events

- 2026-11-10: ASE reported October 2026 net revenues of NT$88,615 million, up 47.1% from October 2025. ATM net revenues were NT$56,840 million, up 57.7%.
- 2026-10-29: ASE reported Q3 2026 results. Net revenues rose 44.8% to NT$244,161 million. Net income attributable to shareholders rose to NT$26,996 million from NT$10,870 million, and basic EPS was NT$6.13, or US$0.384 per ADS. The gross margin was 22.1% and the operating margin 13.6%. ATM revenues rose 51.0%, with an operating margin of 20.0%. For Q4 2026, ASE expects revenue growth of 6% to 8% from Q3, a gross margin of 23% to 24% and an operating margin of 14.5% to 15.5%.
- 2026-08-03: ASE priced US$1 billion of zero coupon convertible bonds due 2031. It uses the money to repay loans of subsidiaries and to buy materials in foreign currencies.
- 2026-07-30: ASE reported Q2 2026 results. Net revenues were NT$191,064 million, up 26.7%, and net income attributable to shareholders was NT$21,065 million. Basic EPS was NT$4.80.
- 2026-03-27: The board resolved to pay a cash dividend of NT$6.6 per share. On February 5, 2026, ASE reported 2025 net revenues of NT$645,388 million, net income attributable to shareholders of NT$40,658 million and basic EPS of NT$9.37.

## Latest news and filings

- Next earnings: 2027-01-29 (expected; the company has not confirmed it)

| Filed | Form | Headline | Period end | XBRL document | Link |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2026-04-01 | 20-F | Annual report for the period ended Dec 31, 2025 | 2025-12-31 |  | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1122411/000119312526135585/d50802d20f.htm |
| 2025-03-27 | 20-F | Annual report for the period ended Dec 31, 2024 | 2024-12-31 |  | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1122411/000119312525064603/d889608d20f.htm |

Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 1122411): https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001122411&type=&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

## Risks

- High: The semiconductor industry is cyclical. If demand for AI or other chips falls, ASE can have too much capacity after large equipment purchases.
- Medium: Sales depend on a few customers. In Q3 2026, the five largest customers gave about 46% of net revenues on an ATM basis, and one customer gave more than 10% of total net revenues.
- Medium: Most plants are in Taiwan and China. Tension between Taiwan and China, export controls or U.S. tariffs can stop production or lower sales.
- Medium: Debt rose with capital spending. The net debt to equity ratio was 0.66 at September 30, 2026, against 0.47 at June 30, 2026.
- Low: ASE reports in New Taiwan dollars, but it sells mostly in U.S. dollars. Changes in the exchange rate move margins and the value of each ADS in U.S. dollars.

## Links

- Page: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/ASX/
- History of changes: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/ASX/history/
- JSON with full history: https://picks.utilarium.app/data/company/ASX.json

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