# Banco Bradesco (BBD)

Sector: Banks

| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Price | $2.73 |
| Intrinsic value source | Analysts |
| Data as of | 2026-10-29 |
| Next earnings | 2027-02-05 (estimate) |

Analysts: Leaning bullish

Picks: Top pick

Discount category: Below intrinsic value

## In short

The market prices Bradesco for Brazil risk after the election and for rising delinquency, and steady profit growth with a return on equity well above Brazilian rates can close the gap over two to three years.

## Themes and gap

- Themes: Interest rates (interest-rates), Weak consumer (weak-consumer)
- Gap type: Slow (slow)
- Why: Bradesco must show a higher return on equity and stable credit quality over several years of high Brazilian interest rates, and the 4Q26 report with the 2027 guidance in early February 2027 is the next test.

## About

Banco Bradesco is one of the largest private banks in Brazil. It gives loans, deposits, cards, asset management and investment banking services to individuals and companies. Through Bradesco Seguros it also sells insurance, pension plans and capitalization bonds. At September 30, 2026, its expanded loan portfolio was R$1,149.5 billion, of which 42% went to individuals and 58% to companies, and its total deposits were R$764.3 billion. In 3Q26, total revenue was R$38.0 billion and recurring net income was R$7.1 billion. The NYSE-listed BBD shares are American Depositary Shares, and each one represents one preferred share. The bank reports in Brazilian reais.

## Thesis

The market prices Bradesco for the risk of Brazil and for slow profit recovery. Brazilian stocks and the real fell sharply on October 26, 2026, after the presidential runoff, according to press reports, because investors fear higher fiscal risk and high interest rates for longer. Bradesco itself says that the economy is slowing, that household debt service is high and that delinquency rises. Loans more than 90 days overdue rose to 4.6% in 3Q26 from 4.1% a year earlier, and loan loss provisions rose 24.3%. The management report gives a return on average equity of 14.6% for the first nine months of 2026, close to the Selic rate of 13.75%. In October 2026, the bank also issued 604.9 million new shares in a R$10 billion capital increase. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Recurring net income must keep growing while the 90-day delinquency ratio stays near 4.6%. The return on equity must rise clearly above the cost of money in Brazil, toward the 16.1% of 3Q26 before the capital increase. The 2027 guidance must show growth in fee income and insurance income, not only in loans. The 4Q26 report and the 2027 guidance, expected in early February 2027, give the next test. If these checks pass, the gap can close over two to three years. The main reason it may not close is a fiscal or currency crisis in Brazil, which can keep interest rates high and push delinquency up.

## Checkpoints

- Feb 5, 2027 (estimate): 4Q26 results and 2027 guidance. Status: Pending. Watch: Recurring net income above R$7.1 billion, a 90-day delinquency ratio of 4.6% or lower and 2027 guidance for growth in NII net of provisions pass; higher delinquency or weaker guidance fail.

## Balance sheet

Bradesco funds itself mainly with customer deposits, financial bills and repos. At September 30, 2026, total deposits were R$764.3 billion and customer funds were R$1,142.9 billion. The expanded loan portfolio was R$1,149.5 billion, and the ratio of loans to funding was 84.3%. Shareholders' equity was R$188.5 billion, which includes R$9.7 billion of the capital increase subscribed by that date. Capital is the real limit for a bank. The common equity ratio was 12.1%, the Tier I ratio was 13.7% and the total Basel ratio was 16.0%, against regulatory minimums of 8.0% for common equity and 9.5% for Tier I. Risk-weighted assets were R$1,217.0 billion. The allowance for expanded loans was R$59.6 billion. Book value per share was R$16.86 on 11,175.6 million shares after the capital increase. The bank paid R$12.1 billion of gross interest on capital in the first nine months of 2026, a payout of 66%.

As of 2026-09-30.

Sources:

- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1160330/000129281426004994/bbdpr3q26_6k.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1160330/000129281426004992/bbdbook3q26_6k.htm

## Dividends

- Dividend yield: 8.5% (last 12 months, at the current price)
- Paid per share, last 12 months: $0.233 (12 payments)
- Current annual rate: $0.876 ($0.073 x 12 a year)
- Latest ex-dividend date: 2026-10-15, $0.073 per share

Dividends per share by year: 2016: $0.3051, 2017: $0.3132, 2018: $0.2592, 2019: $0.4985, 2020: $0.138, 2021: $0.191, 2022: $0.086, 2023: $0.339, 2024: $0.148, 2025: $0.166.

Source: company filings and market data, read on 2026-10-29.

## Recent events

- 2026-10-22: Bradesco reported 3Q26 results. Recurring net income rose 14.6% from a year earlier to R$7.1 billion, and total revenue rose 8.4% to R$38.0 billion. Net interest income rose 14.2%, but expanded loan loss provisions rose 24.3% to R$10.6 billion. Loans more than 90 days overdue rose to 4.6% of the portfolio. The efficiency ratio improved to 45.4%. The Tier I capital ratio rose to 13.7%. The bank kept its 2026 guidance.
- 2026-10-22: The Board of Directors approved a new share buyback program. From November 8, 2026 to May 8, 2028, Bradesco can buy back up to 106,584,881 shares, of which up to 53,413,506 are common shares and up to 53,171,375 are preferred shares.
- 2026-10-08: The Central Bank of Brazil approved the R$10 billion capital increase. The bank issued 302,876,396 common shares at R$15.43 and 301,976,357 preferred shares at R$17.64. Controlling shareholders subscribed R$5.4 billion and other shareholders subscribed R$4.6 billion. The new shares were credited on October 13, 2026.
- 2026-08-06: Bradesco filed its 2Q26 results. Recurring net income rose 16.2% from a year earlier to R$7.1 billion, its tenth quarter in a row of higher net income. Total revenue rose 10.3% to R$37.6 billion.
- 2026-07-29: Bradesco announced a capital increase of up to R$10 billion. The controlling shareholders committed to subscribe at least R$8 billion. The bank said that the capital will support investment in technology, commercial efficiency and business growth, and that it will add about 0.9 percentage points to the common equity ratio.
- 2026-05-06: Bradesco reported 1Q26 results. Recurring net income rose 16.1% from a year earlier to R$6.8 billion, and total revenue rose 14.0% to R$36.9 billion. The bank also introduced Bradsaúde, which groups its healthcare assets.
- 2026-02-06: Bradesco reported its 4Q25 results and gave 2026 guidance. It expects expanded loan portfolio growth of 8.5% to 10.5%, NII net of provisions of R$42 billion to R$48 billion, fee income growth of 3% to 5%, operating expense growth of 6% to 8% and insurance income growth of 6% to 8%.

## Latest news and filings

- Next earnings: 2027-02-05 (expected; the company has not confirmed it)

| Filed | Form | Headline | Period end | XBRL document | Link |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2026-03-25 | 20-F | Annual report for the period ended Dec 31, 2025 | 2025-12-31 |  | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1160330/000129281426001753/bbdform20f_2025.htm |
| 2025-03-31 | 20-F | Annual report for the period ended Dec 31, 2024 | 2024-12-31 |  | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1160330/000129281425001244/bbdform20f_2024.htm |

Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 1160330): https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001160330&type=&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

## Risks

- High: Brazil country risk. After the October 25, 2026 presidential runoff, Brazilian stocks and the real fell sharply, according to press reports. A fiscal crisis or a weaker real can keep the Selic rate high, slow the economy and lower the value of the bank's earnings in US dollars.
- High: Credit quality. Loans more than 90 days overdue rose to 4.6% at September 30, 2026, from 4.1% a year earlier. Delinquency rose most in small and medium company loans with federal government guarantees and in rural loans. In 3Q26, provisions covered only 83% of new Stage 3 loans. Higher losses can lower profit.
- Medium: Competition from digital banks and fintechs puts pressure on fees and on mass-market lending. Fee income grew only 3.1% from a year earlier in 3Q26, and checking account fees fell 5.0%.
- Medium: The R$10 billion capital increase added 604.9 million shares, about 5.7% more shares. If the bank cannot earn a good return on the new capital, profit per share grows more slowly than net income.
- Low: Tax disputes. In 2026, Bradesco booked R$1.8 billion of non-recurring tax charges from a tax settlement program and other tax provisions. New tax rules or disputes can cause more charges.

## Links

- Page: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/BBD/
- History of changes: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/BBD/history/
- JSON with full history: https://picks.utilarium.app/data/company/BBD.json

> Picks is a personal record of stock picks. It gives general information only, not financial, investment, tax or legal advice, and not advice for your situation. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Kevin may hold any stock on this site. Prices, intrinsic values and ratings can be delayed or wrong; check the original source. Full disclaimer: /disclaimer/.