# BP (BP)

Sector: Integrated oil & gas

| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Price | $44.59 |
| Intrinsic value source | Analysts |
| Data as of | 2026-11-10 |
| Next earnings | 2027-02-09 (estimate) |

Analysts: Leaning bullish

Picks: Research only

Discount category: Close to intrinsic value

## In short

The market doubts that BP can keep its 2026 cash flow when oil prices and refining margins fall, and lower debt with a clear plan from the December 2026 update can close the gap within one to two years.

## Themes and gap

- Themes: Power and energy (power-energy), High debt (leverage), New management (management-change)
- Gap type: Can close (closable)
- Why: The strategy update on December 15, 2026 and the Q4 2026 report expected in early February 2027 show whether debt keeps falling and the new plan holds at lower prices.

## About

BP is an integrated oil and gas company with its head office in London. It produces oil and gas, refines crude oil, trades energy and sells fuels and lubricants. Its brands include Amoco, Aral, ampm, bp pulse, Castrol, PETRO, TA and Thorntons. Upstream production was 2.22 million barrels of oil equivalent per day and refinery throughput was 1.40 million barrels per day in Q3 2026. It now reports three segments: gas and low carbon energy, oil production and operations, and customers and products. From January 1, 2027, it will report upstream and downstream segments. It reports in U.S. dollars. One American depositary share (ADS) equals six ordinary shares.

## Thesis

The market doubts that BP can keep its higher profits when oil prices and refining margins fall from their 2026 levels, and it remembers years of strategy changes and high debt. In 2026, conflict in the Middle East raised the Brent price, and BP's underlying replacement cost profit for the first nine months rose to $17.4 billion from $5.9 billion a year earlier. BP suspended share buybacks in February 2026 and used the cash to reduce net debt to $13.9 billion at September 30, 2026. It also had a new CEO, Meg O'Neill, from April 2026, and the board removed its Chair in May 2026. For the gap to close, three things must be true. BP must keep reducing debt, hybrids and Gulf of America liabilities with the 2026 cash and the Castrol and Aker BP sale proceeds. The strategy update on December 15, 2026 must give a clear capital frame and targets that investors can track. Upstream production and refining availability must stay near the Q3 2026 levels, so that earnings hold up better when prices fall. The December 15 update and the Q4 2026 report, expected in early February 2027, give the next tests. If these checks pass, the gap can close within one to two years. The main reason it may not close is a fast fall in oil prices and refining margins before the balance sheet work is complete.

## Checkpoints

- Oct 30, 2026: Q3 2026 results: net debt. Status: Passed. Watch: A clear fall in net debt from $22.3 billion and steady upstream production pass; higher net debt or a fall in production fail. Outcome: Net debt fell by $8.4 billion to $13.9 billion and production stayed at about 2.2 million barrels of oil equivalent per day.
- Dec 15, 2026: Strategy and outlook update. Status: Pending. Watch: A clear capital frame, debt targets and return targets that hold at lower oil prices pass; a vague plan or higher spending without return targets fail.
- Feb 9, 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 results: cash and debt. Status: Pending. Watch: Lower net debt, the Castrol proceeds received and steady operations pass; a rise in net debt or new large impairments fail.

## Balance sheet

- Cash: $43.0B
- Debt: $55.4B
- Net debt: $12.4B

BP funds itself with bonds, hybrid bonds and other borrowings. Finance debt was $55.37 billion at September 30, 2026, and cash and cash equivalents were $42.99 billion. BP reports net debt of $13.87 billion, which includes a $1.50 billion liability on hedges of the finance debt, down from $22.25 billion at June 30, 2026 and $26.05 billion at September 30, 2025. BP also had $12.10 billion of hybrid bonds in equity at September 30, 2026, after it redeemed €2.5 billion of hybrid bonds and $1.0 billion of perpetual hybrid securities in 2026. BP says that the total of net debt, hybrids, leases and Gulf of America settlement liabilities fell by $9.3 billion in Q3 2026. It expects Gulf of America settlement payments of about $1.6 billion before tax in 2026, plus a $350 million settlement with the State of Louisiana at a date not yet set.

As of 2026-09-30.

Sources:

- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/313807/000165495426009265/a0767b.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/313807/000165495426009536/a9499b.htm

## Dividends

- Dividend yield: 4.5% (last 12 months, at the current price)
- Paid per share, last 12 months: $2.017 (4 payments)
- Current annual rate: $2.08 ($0.52 x 4 a year)
- Latest ex-dividend date: 2026-08-14, $0.52 per share
- Growth over the last 10 years: -1.7% a year

Dividends per share by year: 2016: $2.40, 2017: $2.40, 2018: $2.43, 2019: $2.46, 2020: $1.89, 2021: $1.286, 2022: $1.376, 2023: $1.666, 2024: $1.832, 2025: $1.958.

Source: company filings and market data, read on 2026-11-09.

## Recent events

- 2026-11-05: BP sold 5% of its 15.9% shareholding in Aker BP at NOK 311 per share, for gross proceeds of about NOK 9.83 billion ($1.06 billion). BP now holds about 10.9% of Aker BP. It now expects 2026 divestment and other proceeds of about $9 billion, about $1 billion more than before.
- 2026-10-30: BP reported Q3 2026 results. Underlying replacement cost profit was $8.5 billion, up from $5.7 billion in Q2, mainly from higher refining margins and gas trading. Operating cash flow was $14.8 billion, and net debt fell by $8.4 billion to $13.9 billion. BP recorded $4.0 billion of post-tax impairments, mainly on transition businesses. It kept the dividend at 8.66 cents per share and will give a strategy and outlook update on December 15, 2026.
- 2026-09-02: BP appointed Ian Tyler as Chair after a search. He had been Interim Chair since May 26, 2026.
- 2026-08-04: BP reported Q2 2026 results. Underlying replacement cost profit was $5.7 billion, operating cash flow was $10.9 billion and net debt was $22.3 billion at June 30, 2026.
- 2026-07-31: BP completed the sale of the Gelsenkirchen refinery in Germany to Klesch Group. BP had agreed the sale on March 19, 2026.
- 2026-05-26: The board decided that Albert Manifold should no longer serve as Chair and director, with immediate effect, after serious concerns about governance standards, oversight and conduct. It appointed Ian Tyler as Interim Chair.
- 2026-04-01: Meg O'Neill, former CEO of Woodside Energy, became CEO of BP. The board had announced her appointment on December 18, 2025, when Murray Auchincloss stepped down.
- 2026-02-10: BP reported 2025 results, with underlying replacement cost profit of $7.5 billion. The board suspended the share buyback, retired the guidance to return 30-40% of operating cash flow to shareholders and set 2026 capital expenditure at $13-13.5 billion. It will use excess cash to strengthen the balance sheet.
- 2025-12-29: BP agreed to sell 65% of the Castrol business to Stonepeak and to keep 35%. BP expects about $6 billion of proceeds when the sale completes.

## Latest news and filings

- Next earnings: 2027-02-09 (expected; the company has not confirmed it)

| Filed | Form | Headline | Period end | XBRL document | Link |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2026-08-04 | 6-K | Interim report for the period ended Jun 30, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | bp-20260630 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/313807/000031380726000016/bp-20260630.htm |
| 2026-03-06 | 20-F | Annual report for the period ended Dec 31, 2025 | 2025-12-31 | bp-20251231 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/313807/000031380726000006/bp-20251231.htm |
| 2025-08-05 | 6-K | Interim report for the period ended Jun 30, 2025 | 2025-06-30 | bp-20250630 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/313807/000031380725000026/bp-20250630.htm |
| 2025-03-06 | 20-F | Annual report for the period ended Dec 31, 2024 | 2024-12-31 | bp-20241231 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/313807/000031380725000007/bp-20241231.htm |

Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 313807): https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000313807&type=&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

## Risks

- High: Profits depend on oil and gas prices and refining margins. Brent averaged $96.99 per barrel in Q3 2026 and $69.13 in Q3 2025, and refining margins were high in 2026 because of the conflict in the Middle East. A return to 2025 prices would cut profit and cash flow by a large amount.
- Medium: Finance debt was $55.4 billion at September 30, 2026, and BP also has $12.1 billion of hybrid bonds in equity, lease liabilities and Gulf of America settlement liabilities. BP says that it is still too leveraged.
- Medium: BP had a new CEO in April 2026, removed its Chair in May 2026 and will set out a new plan on December 15, 2026. More strategy changes can lower investor trust.
- Medium: BP recorded post-tax impairments of $4.0 billion in Q3 2026, mainly on transition businesses. New write-downs can follow if projects earn less than planned.
- Low: Tier 1 and tier 2 process safety events rose to 35 in the first nine months of 2026 from 23 a year earlier. A serious incident can bring costs and fines.

## Links

- Page: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/BP/
- History of changes: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/BP/history/
- JSON with full history: https://picks.utilarium.app/data/company/BP.json

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