# Cummins (CMI)

Sector: Engines, power generation and truck components

| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Price | $454.18 |
| Market cap | $62B |
| Intrinsic value source | Analysts |
| Data as of | 2026-11-11 |
| Next earnings | 2027-02-05 (estimate) |

Analysts: Bullish

Picks: Research only

Discount category: Below intrinsic value

## In short

Cummins trades below its intrinsic value because investors fear a truck downturn and doubt that data center demand lasts, and strong power generation results with stable truck markets can close the gap.

## Themes and gap

- Themes: AI supplier (ai-supplier), Tariffs and trade (trade-tariffs), Regulation and courts (regulation-legal)
- Gap type: Can close (closable)
- Why: The Q4 2026 report and the 2027 outlook, expected in early February 2027, show whether power generation growth can offset weaker pickup truck demand.

## About

Cummins makes diesel and natural gas engines, generator sets and power systems, and truck parts such as axles, brakes, turbochargers, fuel systems and aftertreatment systems. It also sells batteries and electric drives. It reports five segments: Engine, Components, Distribution, Power Systems and Accelera, its zero-emissions business. In Q3 2026, net sales were $9,438 million. Before the eliminations of sales between segments, Distribution gave $3,310 million, Engine $3,130 million, Components $2,856 million, Power Systems $2,289 million and Accelera $103 million. Its customers include PACCAR, Traton, Daimler Truck and Stellantis. Demand for backup and prime power for data centers is the main growth driver of Power Systems. Cummins services its products through about 640 distributor locations and more than 13,000 certified dealer locations. In 2025, sales were $33.7 billion, and Cummins had about 67,400 employees. Its shares trade on the New York Stock Exchange. The head office is in Columbus, Indiana. Jennifer Rumsey is Chair and Chief Executive Officer.

## Thesis

Cummins trades below its intrinsic value because investors fear that truck markets turn down and that the strong demand for data center power does not last. In Q3 2026, EBITDA was a record 18.9% of sales and Power Systems had an EBITDA margin of 25.4%, but Cummins cut its 2026 revenue outlook to growth of about 10%, from 10% to 13%, because demand for pickup truck engines in North America was weak. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Power Systems and Distribution must keep their growth from power generation for data centers. North America truck demand must stay strong in 2027, when Cummins starts its new X10 and X15 engines after the EPA proposed changes to the U.S. emission rules. Accelera must continue to reduce its losses, after charges of $458 million in 2025 and $199 million in Q1 2026. The Q4 2026 report and the 2027 outlook, expected in early February 2027, are the next test. If these conditions hold through 2027, the gap can close in one to two years.

## Checkpoints

- Nov 5, 2026: Q3 2026 results and the 2026 outlook. Status: Passed. Watch: EBITDA of 18% of sales or more and a kept margin outlook pass; a lower margin outlook fails. Outcome: EBITDA was a record 18.9% of sales, and the margin outlook stayed at about 18.2%, but the revenue outlook fell to growth of about 10%.
- Feb 5, 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 results and the 2027 outlook. Status: Pending. Watch: 2026 revenue growth of about 10% and a 2027 outlook for higher revenue pass; an outlook for lower revenue fails.
- 2027 (estimate): Launch of the new X10 and X15 truck engines. Status: Pending. Watch: A launch in 2027 on time and without large warranty costs passes; delays or large costs fail.

## Balance sheet

- Cash: $4.2B
- Debt: $7.5B
- Net debt: $3.3B
- Undrawn credit line: $3.7B
- Debt due within 12 months: $885M
- Ratings: S&P A (stable outlook), Moody's A2 (stable outlook)

Cummins funds itself with cash flow, bonds and commercial paper. At September 30, 2026, cash and cash equivalents were $3,571 million and marketable securities $614 million, together $4,185 million. Total debt was $7,519 million: long-term debt of $6,634 million, current maturities of long-term debt of $154 million, loans payable of $383 million and commercial paper of $348 million. Total debt was 34.4% of total capital. Cummins had no borrowings under its $4.0 billion of committed credit facilities, and $3,652 million was available. S&P rates the senior debt A and Moody's A2, both with a stable outlook. In the first nine months of 2026, net cash provided by operating activities was $3,213 million and capital expenditures $741 million. Cummins paid dividends of $854 million and bought back 1.4 million shares for $833 million, and $1.4 billion of the repurchase authorization was left. There were 137,077,890 shares at September 30, 2026. The quarterly dividend is $2.20 per share.

As of 2026-09-30.

Sources:

- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/26172/000002617226000035/cmi2026q38-kex99.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/26172/000002617226000037/cmi-20260930.htm

## Dividends

- Dividend yield: 1.8% (last 12 months, at the current price)
- Paid per share, last 12 months: $8.20 (4 payments)
- Current annual rate: $8.80 ($2.20 x 4 a year)
- Payout ratio: 37% of the earnings of the last fiscal year (the year ended 2025-12-31)
- Latest ex-dividend date: 2026-08-21, $2.20 per share
- Growth from 2020 to 2025: 7.7% a year
- Growth from 2015 to 2025: 8.1% a year

Dividends per share by year: 2016: $4.00, 2017: $4.21, 2018: $4.44, 2019: $4.902, 2020: $5.283, 2021: $5.60, 2022: $6.04, 2023: $6.50, 2024: $7.00, 2025: $7.64.

Source: company filings and market data, read on 2026-11-11.

## Recent events

- 2026-11-05: Cummins reported Q3 2026 results. Net sales rose 13% to $9,438 million, and net income attributable to Cummins was $1,140 million, or $8.25 per diluted share, against $3.86 a year earlier. EBITDA was a record $1.8 billion, or 18.9% of sales. Power Systems sales rose 15% to $2.3 billion. Cummins now expects 2026 revenue growth of about 10%, from 10% to 13% before, and EBITDA of about 18.2% of sales, because pickup truck demand in North America was weaker than expected.
- 2026-08-04: Cummins reported Q2 2026 results. Net sales rose 9% to a record $9.5 billion, and diluted EPS was $6.73. Cummins raised its 2026 outlook to revenue growth of 10% to 13% and EBITDA of 18.0% to 18.5% of sales. It increased the quarterly dividend by 10% to $2.20 per share, the 17th year in a row of increases.
- 2026-05-05: Cummins reported Q1 2026 results. Net sales rose 3% to $8.4 billion, and diluted EPS was $4.71. The results include charges of $199 million, or $1.44 per diluted share, for the sale of the low-pressure fuel cell business on March 31, 2026, for which Cummins made a net payment of $175 million.
- 2026-02-05: Cummins reported 2025 results. Revenue fell 1% to $33.7 billion, and net income was $2.8 billion, or $20.50 per diluted share. The results include charges of $458 million, or $3.28 per diluted share, for the electrolyzer business of Accelera. Cummins expected 2026 revenue growth of 3% to 8%.

## Latest news and filings

- Last earnings: 2026-11-05 (8-K: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/26172/000002617226000035/)
- Next earnings: 2027-02-05 (expected; the company has not confirmed it)

| Filed | Form | Headline | Period end | XBRL document | Link |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2026-11-05 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Sep 30, 2026 | 2026-09-30 | cmi-20260930 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/26172/000002617226000037/cmi-20260930.htm |
| 2026-11-05 | 8-K | Earnings release |  | cmi-20261105 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/26172/000002617226000035/ |
| 2026-08-04 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Jun 30, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | cmi-20260630 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/26172/000002617226000029/cmi-20260630.htm |
| 2026-08-04 | 8-K | Earnings release |  | cmi-20260804 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/26172/000002617226000026/ |
| 2026-05-14 | 8-K | Shareholder vote results |  | cmi-20260512 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/26172/000002617226000018/cmi-20260512.htm |
| 2026-05-05 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Mar 31, 2026 | 2026-03-31 | cmi-20260331 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/26172/000002617226000016/cmi-20260331.htm |
| 2026-05-05 | 8-K | Earnings release |  | cmi-20260505 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/26172/000002617226000013/ |
| 2026-02-10 | 10-K | Annual report for the period ended Dec 31, 2025 | 2025-12-31 | cmi-20251231 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/26172/000002617226000009/cmi-20251231.htm |
| 2026-02-05 | 8-K | Earnings release |  | cmi-20260205 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/26172/000002617226000004/ |
| 2025-07-14 | 8-K | Change of directors or officers |  | cmi-20250714 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/26172/000002617225000025/cmi-20250714.htm |

Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 26172): https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000026172&type=&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

## Risks

- Medium: Truck markets are cyclical. In Q3 2026, demand for pickup truck engines in North America was weak, and a fall in heavy-duty and medium-duty truck demand can lower sales and margins of the Engine and Components segments.
- Medium: Much of the growth comes from generator sets and power systems for data centers. If data center spending slows, Power Systems and Distribution can grow more slowly.
- Medium: Engines must meet emission rules in many countries. The EPA proposed changes to the U.S. rules for 2027, and Cummins must launch its new X10 and X15 engines in 2027 with a measured production ramp. Cummins also continues to obey the terms of its 2024 settlement with U.S. regulators about the emissions of engines for pickup trucks.
- Low: Tariffs, export controls and trade disputes can raise costs. The U.S. did not extend the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement on July 1, 2026, and new terms are not yet known.
- Low: Accelera continues to lose money while demand for hydrogen and zero-emissions products grows slowly. Its EBITDA loss was $402 million in the first nine months of 2026.

## Links

- Page: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/CMI/
- History of changes: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/CMI/history/
- JSON with full history: https://picks.utilarium.app/data/company/CMI.json

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