# Canadian National Railway (CNI) Sector: Railroads | Field | Value | |---|---| | Price | $127.20 | | Market cap | $78B | | Intrinsic value source | Analysts | | Data as of | 2026-11-10 | | Next earnings | 2027-01-29 (estimate) | Analysts: Leaning bullish Picks: Research only Discount category: Pricey ## In short Investors pay a premium for the rail network and pricing of CN, and volume growth with new labor agreements and open trade between Canada and the United States can earn it. ## Themes and gap - Themes: Tariffs and trade (trade-tariffs), Regulation and courts (regulation-legal) - Gap type: Can close (closable) - Why: The new collective agreements in Canada and the Q4 2026 report, expected in late January 2027, show whether volumes and margins hold. ## About Canadian National Railway (CN) runs a rail network of nearly 20,000 miles. It connects the Atlantic and Pacific coasts of Canada with the U.S. Midwest and the U.S. Gulf Coast. It carries more than 300 million tons of products each year. Its freight groups are petroleum and chemicals, metals and minerals, forest products, coal, grain and fertilizers, intermodal and automotive. In Q3 2026, intermodal gave C$1,065 million and petroleum and chemicals C$1,000 million of the C$4,574 million of freight revenues. The company reports in Canadian dollars under U.S. GAAP. Its shares trade on the Toronto Stock Exchange as CNR and on the New York Stock Exchange as CNI, and one NYSE share is one common share. The head office is in Montreal. Tracy Robinson is President and Chief Executive Officer. ## Thesis CN trades at a premium because investors pay for its network across Canada and the U.S. Midwest, its strong pricing and its buybacks. In Q3 2026, revenues rose 15% to C$4,771 million, mainly because of higher fuel surcharges, higher volumes and freight rates, and adjusted diluted EPS rose 18% to C$2.16. The company expects 2026 adjusted diluted EPS growth in the mid-to-high single digit range, nearer the upper end, against C$7.63 in 2025. But volume growth in revenue ton-miles was only 4%, and the operating ratio rose to 63.7% because of an asset impairment of C$118 million. For the premium to be earned, three things must be true. Volume must grow in grain, energy and intermodal while trade rules between Canada and the United States change. Productivity must keep the adjusted operating ratio near 61% or lower. The talks for the collective agreements that expire on December 31, 2026 must end without a long stoppage. The new agreements and the Q4 2026 report with the 2027 guidance, expected in late January 2027, are the next tests. ## Checkpoints - Oct 30, 2026: Q3 2026 results: volume and EPS. Status: Passed. Watch: Volume growth and adjusted EPS growth near the top of the guidance pass; a lower guidance fails. Outcome: Revenue ton-miles rose 4% and adjusted diluted EPS rose 18%, and CN said that 2026 EPS growth tracks to the upper end of its range. - Jan 29, 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 results and 2027 guidance. Status: Pending. Watch: A 2027 guidance with EPS growth and a stable operating ratio passes; a lower volume outlook fails. - Jan 2027 (estimate): New collective agreements in Canada. Status: Pending. Watch: New agreements without a stoppage pass; a strike, lockout or long arbitration fails. ## Balance sheet - Cash: CA$743M - Debt: CA$22.8B - Net debt: CA$22.1B - EBITDA, last 12 months: CA$9.1B - Net debt / EBITDA: 2.4× (medium) - Interest cover: 7.0× - Debt due within 12 months: CA$1.3B - Ratings: Moody's A2 (negative outlook), S&P A- (stable outlook) CN funds itself with notes, commercial paper and cash flow. At September 30, 2026, debt was C$22,812 million: C$1,308 million current and C$21,504 million long-term. Commercial paper was US$850 million (C$1,210 million), against US$90 million at the end of 2025. Adjusted debt-to-adjusted EBITDA was 2.61 times for the 12 months to September 30, 2026, with adjusted EBITDA of C$9,080 million. Interest cover is operating income divided by interest expense for the first nine months of 2026 (C$5,060 million against C$720 million). In the same period, operating cash flow was C$4,780 million, free cash flow was C$2,918 million and buybacks were C$1,999 million. The quarterly dividend is C$0.9150 per share. Moody's changed its outlook to negative and confirmed its A2 rating, and S&P confirmed its A- rating with a stable outlook. There were 601.2 million shares outstanding. As of 2026-09-30. Sources: - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/16868/000001686826000041/a2026q3fsnotes.htm - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/16868/000001686826000041/a2026q3mda.htm - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/16868/000001686826000041/a2026q3pressreleasestatssu.htm ## Dividends - Dividend yield: 1.6% (last 12 months, at the current price) - Paid per share, last 12 months: $1.993 (3 payments) - Current annual rate: $2.652 ($0.663 x 4 a year) - Latest ex-dividend date: 2026-09-08, $0.663 per share Dividends per share by year: 2016: $1.149, 2017: $1.275, 2018: $1.391, 2019: $1.615, 2020: $1.745, 2021: $1.972, 2022: $2.247, 2023: $2.324, 2024: $2.463, 2025: $1.907. Source: company filings and market data, read on 2026-11-10. ## Recent events - 2026-10-30: CN reported Q3 2026 results. Revenues rose 15% to C$4,771 million, diluted EPS rose 9% to C$2.00 and adjusted diluted EPS rose 18% to C$2.16. The results include an impairment of C$118 million for parts of its dispatching and back office IT projects that CN stopped. CN repurchased about 3.9 million shares for C$676 million in the quarter. - 2026-10-29: CN said that its Chief Financial Officer Ghislain Houle will retire. Jamie Lockwood, Vice-President, Investor Relations and Special Projects, becomes Chief Financial Officer on February 1, 2027. - 2026-08-31: Teamsters Canada Rail Conference gave notice to bargain for a new collective agreement, which covers about 6,000 conductors and locomotive engineers in Canada. United Steelworkers gave notice for about 2,800 track workers on September 1, 2026. Both agreements expire on December 31, 2026. - 2026-07-22: CN and Union Pacific announced a memorandum of understanding for a commercial agreement. CN would get new rights on Union Pacific's network for moves between Canada and Mexico, and Union Pacific would get more operating rights on CN's former EJ&E corridor around Chicago. ## Latest news and filings - Next earnings: 2027-01-29 (expected; the company has not confirmed it) | Filed | Form | Headline | Period end | XBRL document | Link | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026-02-04 | 40-F | Annual report for the period ended Dec 31, 2025 | 2025-12-31 | | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/16868/000110465926010352/tm261145d1_40f.htm | | 2026-02-04 | 6-K | Interim report for the period ended Dec 31, 2025 | 2025-12-31 | cni-20251231_d2 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/16868/000001686826000011/cni-20251231_d2.htm | | 2025-02-04 | 40-F | Annual report for the period ended Dec 31, 2024 | 2024-12-31 | | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/16868/000110465925009198/tm251244d1_40f.htm | | 2025-02-04 | 6-K | Interim report for the period ended Dec 31, 2024 | 2024-12-31 | cni-20241231_d2 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/16868/000001686825000011/cni-20241231_d2.htm | Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 16868): https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000016868&type=&dateb=&owner=include&count=40 ## Risks - High: The collective agreements with Teamsters Canada Rail Conference and United Steelworkers expire on December 31, 2026. A strike or lockout can stop most traffic in Canada. - Medium: Tariffs and trade disputes between Canada and the United States can lower cross-border volumes of products such as metals, forest products and cars. - Medium: The proposed merger of Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern can change competition in the U.S. rail market. CN spent C$48 million in the first nine months of 2026 on advice for the regulatory review. - Medium: Volumes depend on grain crops, energy prices and the economy. Weak crops or lower coal and frac sand volumes can lower revenues. - Low: CN reports in Canadian dollars, so the NYSE share price and the U.S. dollar value of the dividend change with the exchange rate. ## Links - Page: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/CNI/ - History of changes: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/CNI/history/ - JSON with full history: https://picks.utilarium.app/data/company/CNI.json > Picks is a personal record of stock picks. It gives general opinions about stocks, including a "Top pick" label. They are not tailored to your needs, goals or risk tolerance. Kevin is not a registered adviser and relies on the general-advice exemption in Canadian securities law (NI 31-103 s.8.25). Do your own research, or ask a registered adviser. Kevin may hold any stock on this site. Prices, intrinsic values and ratings can be delayed or wrong; check the original source. Full disclaimer: /disclaimer/.