# ConocoPhillips (COP)

Sector: Oil & gas production

| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Price | $134.47 |
| Market cap | $159B |
| Intrinsic value source | Analysts |
| Data as of | 2026-11-10 |
| Next earnings | 2027-02-05 (estimate) |

Analysts: Bullish

Picks: Research only

Discount category: Close to intrinsic value

## In short

The market doubts that ConocoPhillips can keep its 2026 earnings when oil prices fall, and steady cash returns with Willow on schedule for the free cash flow rise by 2029 can close the gap.

## Themes and gap

- Themes: Power and energy (power-energy), New management (management-change)
- Gap type: Slow (slow)
- Why: The gap depends on oil prices and on large projects such as Willow, which the company expects to add most of their cash flow toward 2029.

## About

ConocoPhillips is a global exploration and production company. It explores for, produces, transports and sells crude oil, natural gas, natural gas liquids, bitumen and LNG. The Lower 48 states of the United States give about two thirds of its production, mainly from the Delaware and Midland basins of the Permian, the Eagle Ford and the Bakken. It also produces in Alaska, Canada, Norway, Qatar, Libya, Australia, Malaysia and other countries, and it is building the Willow oil project in Alaska. It bought Marathon Oil in November 2024. Production was 2,302 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (MBOED) in Q3 2026. The company is based in Houston, Texas.

## Thesis

The market doubts that ConocoPhillips can keep its 2026 earnings when oil prices return to normal. Its realized price was $61.40 per barrel of oil equivalent in Q3 2026, 32% higher than a year earlier, because of supply problems in the Middle East. The same conflict cut its production in Qatar. Investors also wait for large projects to pay back: Willow in Alaska, LNG in Qatar and Port Arthur LNG in Texas use cash now, and the company expects most of their cash flow toward 2029. For the gap to close, four things must be true. Cash from operations must pay for the capital plan of $12 billion to $12.5 billion and for the 45% of cash from operations that the company returns to shareholders, also at lower prices. Costs must fall as planned, with more than $1 billion of run-rate savings by the end of 2026. Willow must stay on schedule for first oil in early 2029, as the company said in Q3 2026. The company must deliver the $7 billion increase in free cash flow by 2029 that it expects. The Q4 2026 report with the 2027 plan, expected in early February 2027, is the next test. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters. The main reason it may not close is a fall in oil prices, which the company cannot control.

## Checkpoints

- Q4 2026 (estimate): Close of the Kirkuk joint venture purchase. Status: Pending. Watch: A close by the end of 2026 on the agreed terms passes; a delay into 2027 or a change of terms fails.
- Feb 5, 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 results and 2027 plan. Status: Pending. Watch: A 2027 capital plan at or below the 2026 level, cost savings on plan and Willow on schedule pass; higher capital spending or a Willow delay fail.

## Balance sheet

- Cash: $9.9B
- Debt: $23.3B
- Net debt: $13.3B
- Interest cover: 31×
- Undrawn credit line: $5.5B, to February 2030
- Debt due within 12 months: $878M

ConocoPhillips funds itself mainly with long-term notes. Debt was $23.3 billion at September 30, 2026, of which $0.9 billion is short-term. Cash is cash and cash equivalents of $7.8 billion and short-term investments of $2.2 billion; the company also held $1.1 billion of long-term investments in debt securities. Interest cover is income before income taxes plus interest and debt expense, divided by interest and debt expense, for the first nine months of 2026. The $5.5 billion revolving credit facility runs to February 2030 and was undrawn, and the company had no commercial paper outstanding. In the first nine months of 2026, the company used $9.1 billion for capital spending and investments, $5.4 billion for buybacks and $3.1 billion for dividends. In July 2026, it remarketed $600 million of St. John the Baptist Parish revenue refunding bonds at 3.0%, with a mandatory tender date of July 2, 2029.

As of 2026-09-30.

Sources:

- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1163165/000116316526000045/cop-20260930.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1163165/000116316526000043/cop-20261105x8kexx991.htm

## Dividends

- Dividend yield: 2.5% (last 12 months, at the current price)
- Paid per share, last 12 months: $3.36 (4 payments)
- Current annual rate: $3.36 ($0.84 x 4 a year)
- Payout ratio: 50% of the earnings of the last fiscal year (the year ended 2025-12-31)
- Latest ex-dividend date: 2026-08-17, $0.84 per share
- Growth over the last 5 years: 13.9% a year
- Growth over the last 10 years: 12.9% a year

Dividends per share by year: 2016: $1.00, 2017: $1.06, 2018: $1.16, 2019: $1.335, 2020: $1.69, 2021: $1.95, 2022: $4.99, 2023: $3.91, 2024: $3.12, 2025: $3.18.

Source: company filings and market data, read on 2026-11-09.

## Recent events

- 2026-11-05: ConocoPhillips reported Q3 2026 results. Net income was $4.0 billion, or $3.34 per share, and adjusted EPS was $3.27, up from $1.61 a year earlier, mainly because of higher prices. Production was 2,302 MBOED. Cash from operations was $7.2 billion, and the company returned $3.4 billion, including $2.4 billion of buybacks. It raised the quarterly dividend by 11% to $0.93 per share. It expects Q4 2026 production of 2.32 to 2.36 million barrels of oil equivalent per day.
- 2026-09-01: Andy O'Brien became President and CEO, and Ryan Lance became executive chair in a transitional role. Konnie Haynes-Welsh became CFO. The company announced the change on August 6, 2026.
- 2026-08-06: ConocoPhillips reported Q2 2026 results. Adjusted EPS was $3.24, up from $1.42 a year earlier. It doubled buybacks to $2.0 billion in the quarter and reached its $5 billion asset sale target ahead of schedule. It agreed to buy a 42% interest in a joint venture that redevelops four oil fields in the Kirkuk area of northern Iraq, with a close expected by the end of 2026, and it signed an agreement to return to Syria.
- 2026-04-30: ConocoPhillips reported Q1 2026 results. Adjusted EPS was $1.89. It removed Qatar from its Q2 production guidance because of the conflict in the Middle East and set 2026 capital spending at $12 billion to $12.5 billion.
- 2026-02-05: ConocoPhillips reported 2025 results. Adjusted earnings were $7.7 billion, or $6.16 per share, down from $7.79 per share in 2024. It returned $9.0 billion, or 45% of cash from operations. It said that it expects $7 billion of additional free cash flow by 2029.

## Latest news and filings

- Last earnings: 2026-11-05 (8-K: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1163165/000116316526000043/)
- Next earnings: 2027-02-05 (expected; the company has not confirmed it)

| Filed | Form | Headline | Period end | XBRL document | Link |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2026-11-05 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Sep 30, 2026 | 2026-09-30 | cop-20260930 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1163165/000116316526000045/cop-20260930.htm |
| 2026-11-05 | 8-K | Earnings release |  | cop-20261105 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1163165/000116316526000043/cop-20261105.htm |
| 2026-08-11 | 8-K | Change of directors or officers |  |  | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1163165/000110465926094062/tm2622739d1_8k.htm |
| 2026-08-06 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Jun 30, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | cop-20260630 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1163165/000116316526000032/cop-20260630.htm |
| 2026-08-06 | 8-K | Earnings release |  | cop-20260806 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1163165/000116316526000030/cop-20260806.htm |
| 2026-06-23 | 8-K | Change of directors or officers |  |  | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1163165/000110465926076836/tm2618585d1_8k.htm |
| 2026-05-14 | 8-K | Shareholder vote results |  |  | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1163165/000110465926061130/tm2614551d1_8k.htm |
| 2026-04-30 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Mar 31, 2026 | 2026-03-31 | cop-20260331 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1163165/000116316526000018/cop-20260331.htm |
| 2026-04-30 | 8-K | Earnings release |  | cop-20260430 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1163165/000116316526000016/cop-20260430.htm |
| 2026-02-17 | 10-K | Annual report for the period ended Dec 31, 2025 | 2025-12-31 | cop-20251231 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1163165/000116316526000009/cop-20251231.htm |

Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 1163165): https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001163165&type=&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

## Risks

- High: Earnings depend on oil and gas prices. Prices in 2026 rose because of the conflict in the Middle East. If supply returns, prices and earnings can fall fast.
- Medium: Willow, the Qatar LNG projects and Port Arthur LNG need large investments before they produce. Cost overruns or delays can lower the expected rise in free cash flow by 2029.
- Medium: The company has LNG assets in Qatar and plans to invest in Iraq and Syria. The conflict in the Middle East constrained production in Qatar through Q3 2026. More escalation can damage operations or delay projects.
- Low: Rules on emissions, methane or drilling permits can raise costs or delay projects, mainly in Alaska.

## Links

- Page: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/COP/
- History of changes: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/COP/history/
- JSON with full history: https://picks.utilarium.app/data/company/COP.json

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