# Dollar General (DG) Sector: Discount retail | Field | Value | |---|---| | Price | $137.44 | | Market cap | $30B | | Intrinsic value source | Analysts | | Data as of | 2026-11-12 | | Next earnings | 2026-12-03 (estimate) | Analysts: Leaning bullish Picks: Research only Discount category: Close to intrinsic value ## In short The market doubts that margins keep rising while an FTC lawsuit is open, and steady same-store sales with a small settlement can lift its value. ## Themes and gap - Themes: Weak consumer (weak-consumer), Regulation and courts (regulation-legal) - Gap type: Can close (closable) - Why: The Q3 report in December 2026 and the first steps of the FTC case show whether margin gains hold and what the case costs. ## About Dollar General Corporation (Dollar General) is a discount retailer based in Goodlettsville, Tennessee. It had 21,148 stores in 48 US states and Mexico at July 31, 2026. It sells consumables, seasonal goods, home products and apparel. In the year that ended January 30, 2026 (fiscal 2025), net sales were $42,724.4 million, operating profit was $2,203.7 million and net income was $1,512.3 million. In fiscal 2026, it plans about 4,730 real estate projects: about 450 new stores in the United States, about 10 new stores in Mexico, and the remodel or relocation of about 4,270 existing stores. Todd Vasos is Chief Executive Officer. The company files 10-K and 10-Q reports with the SEC, and its common stock trades on the New York Stock Exchange in US dollars. ## Thesis The price of Dollar General depends on whether it can keep growing sales and margin without the help of tariff refunds, and on how a lawsuit of the Federal Trade Commission ends. In Q2 of fiscal 2026, net sales rose 5.2% to $11.3 billion. Same-store sales rose 3.5%, with customer traffic up 2.0%, and operating profit rose 29.2% to $769.2 million. The company says that tariff refunds, after related reinvestments, added about 66 basis points to the operating margin and about $0.25 to EPS in the quarter. It raised its guidance for fiscal 2026 to net sales growth of 4.0% to 4.3% and diluted EPS of $7.80 to $8.00. On October 26, 2026, the FTC and several states filed a lawsuit in the United States District Court for the Middle District of Tennessee. They say that the company broke the FTC Act, the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act and state laws on consumer protection, and they seek an injunction, money and civil penalties. The company says that it will defend itself and that the demands of the FTC staff were unreasonable. For the price to hold or rise, three things must be true. Traffic and same-store sales must keep growing in all four categories. The margin must hold when the refunds end, helped by lower distribution costs. The case must end without a large payment or a change that hurts sales. The next tests are the Q3 report, expected in December 2026, and the first steps of the court case. ## Checkpoints - Dec 3, 2026 (estimate): Q3 fiscal 2026 results: margin and traffic. Status: Pending. Watch: Same-store sales and customer traffic keep growing and diluted EPS stays in the guided range of $7.80 to $8.00 for the year, and this passes; a cut to the guidance fails. - 2027 (estimate): FTC lawsuit: first rulings or a settlement. Status: Pending. Watch: The company settles or wins early rulings without a large payment or a change that hurts sales, and this passes; a large payment or a strict order fails. ## Balance sheet At July 31, 2026, Dollar General had cash and cash equivalents of $1,589.6 million, against $1,284.6 million at January 30, 2026. Long-term obligations were $4,558.1 million, and the current portion was $12.7 million. They include senior notes that fall due from 2028. Operating lease liabilities were $9,630.3 million long-term and $1,572.0 million current. Merchandise inventories were $6.55 billion. Net interest expense was $42.9 million in Q2, down from $57.7 million a year before. Cash flow from operations was $1.5 billion in the first half, and capital spending was $758 million. The company has $1.4 billion left under its share repurchase authorization and plans to buy back up to $700 million in fiscal 2026. As of 2026-07-31. Sources: - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/29534/000110465926101932/dg-20260731x10q.htm - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/29534/000110465926101918/tm2623914d1_ex99.htm ## Dividends - Dividend yield: 1.7% (last 12 months, at the current price) - Paid per share, last 12 months: $2.36 (4 payments) - Current annual rate: $2.36 ($0.59 x 4 a year) - Payout ratio: 34% of the earnings of the last fiscal year (the year ended 2026-01-30) - Latest ex-dividend date: 2026-10-06, $0.59 per share - Growth from 2020 to 2025: 11.0% a year - Growth from 2015 to 2025: 10.4% a year Dividends per share by year: 2016: $1.00, 2017: $0.78, 2018: $1.13, 2019: $1.25, 2020: $1.40, 2021: $1.62, 2022: $2.62, 2023: $1.77, 2024: $2.36, 2025: $2.36. Source: company filings and market data, read on 2026-11-13. ## Recent events - 2026-11-05: A director, Timothy I. McGuire, told the company that he will resign from the board for personal reasons, effective December 3, 2026. The company said that he does not disagree with it on any matter. - 2026-10-26: The FTC and several states filed a lawsuit against Dollar General in federal court in Tennessee. The company said that the FTC staff sent it a draft complaint on September 23, 2026, and demanded significant monetary relief. The company will defend the case and said that it could have a material adverse effect on its financial statements if the defense fails. - 2026-08-27: Dollar General reported Q2 fiscal 2026 results. Net sales rose 5.2% to $11.3 billion, same-store sales rose 3.5%, operating profit rose 29.2% to $769.2 million and diluted EPS rose 33.3% to $2.48. Cash flow from operations for the half-year was $1.5 billion. - 2026-08-27: Dollar General raised its guidance for fiscal 2026 to net sales growth of 4.0% to 4.3%, same-store sales growth of 2.5% to 2.9% and diluted EPS of $7.80 to $8.00. It plans share repurchases of up to $700 million. - 2026-08-26: The board declared a quarterly dividend of $0.59 per share. The company had $1.4 billion left under its share repurchase authorization at the end of Q2. ## Latest news and filings - Last earnings: 2026-08-27 (8-K: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/29534/000110465926101918/) - Next earnings: 2026-12-03 (expected; the company has not confirmed it) | Filed | Form | Headline | Period end | XBRL document | Link | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026-11-10 | 8-K | Change of directors or officers | | | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/29534/000110465926125204/tm2629262d1_8k.htm | | 2026-10-26 | 8-K | Other company news | | | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/29534/000110465926118869/tm2628315d1_8k.htm | | 2026-08-28 | 8-K | Change of directors or officers and Investor disclosure | | | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/29534/000110465926102689/tm2624201d1_8k.htm | | 2026-08-27 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Jul 31, 2026 | 2026-07-31 | dg-20260731x10q | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/29534/000110465926101932/dg-20260731x10q.htm | | 2026-08-27 | 8-K | Earnings release and Investor disclosure | | | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/29534/000110465926101918/ | | 2026-06-02 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended May 1, 2026 | 2026-05-01 | dg-20260501x10q | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/29534/000110465926069205/dg-20260501x10q.htm | | 2026-06-02 | 8-K | Earnings release and Shareholder vote results | | | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/29534/000110465926069198/ | | 2026-03-24 | 8-K | Change of directors or officers and Investor disclosure | | | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/29534/000110465926033643/tm269511d1_8k.htm | | 2026-03-20 | 10-K | Annual report for the period ended Jan 30, 2026 | 2026-01-30 | dg-20260130x10k | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/29534/000110465926032325/dg-20260130x10k.htm | | 2026-03-12 | 8-K | Earnings release and Investor disclosure | | | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/29534/000110465926026697/ | Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 29534): https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000029534&type=&dateb=&owner=include&count=40 ## Risks - High: The FTC lawsuit can lead to payments and changes in how the company sells goods. The plaintiffs seek an injunction, a monetary judgment and civil penalties. The company says that the demands overstate any harm, but it cannot promise that it will win. - Medium: Part of the margin gain will not come again. Tariff refunds added about 66 basis points to the operating margin in Q2, and a lower LIFO provision also helped. Markdowns and transport costs rose. - Medium: Costs of a big real estate plan can rise. Capital spending of $1.4 billion to $1.5 billion is planned for fiscal 2026, and the company plans about 4,730 projects, including about 450 new stores. Capital spending was $758 million in the first half. - Medium: Interest and lease costs are large. Long-term obligations were $4.56 billion and operating lease liabilities were $11.2 billion at July 31, 2026. - Low: Debt falls due from 2028. Senior notes of about $500 million each fall due on May 1, 2028 and July 5, 2028, and notes of about $965 million fall due on April 3, 2030. ## Links - Page: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/DG/ - History of changes: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/DG/history/ - JSON with full history: https://picks.utilarium.app/data/company/DG.json > Picks is a personal record of stock picks. It gives general opinions about stocks, including a "Top pick" label. They are not tailored to your needs, goals or risk tolerance. Kevin is not a registered adviser and relies on the general-advice exemption in Canadian securities law (NI 31-103 s.8.25). Do your own research, or ask a registered adviser. Kevin may hold any stock on this site. Prices, intrinsic values and ratings can be delayed or wrong; check the original source. Full disclaimer: /disclaimer/.