# Estée Lauder (EL)

Sector: Luxury beauty & personal care

| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Price | $112.33 |
| Market cap | $41B |
| Intrinsic value source | Analysts |
| Data as of | 2026-11-12 |
| Next earnings | 2027-02-04 (estimate) |

Analysts: Leaning bullish

Picks: Research only

Discount category: Close to intrinsic value

## In short

The market doubts that Estée Lauder can keep its profit recovery going after a weak period, and sales growth with the margin gains that it targets for fiscal 2030 can lift its value.

## Themes and gap

- Themes: China and geopolitics (china-geopolitics), Tariffs and trade (trade-tariffs)
- Gap type: Can close (closable)
- Why: The Q2 fiscal 2027 report in February 2027 shows whether the margin gains and the raised outlook hold.

## About

The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (Estée Lauder) is a New York company that makes and sells prestige beauty products. Its categories are skin care, makeup, fragrance and hair care. Its brands include Estée Lauder, Clinique, M·A·C, La Mer, Aveda, Jo Malone London, TOM FORD, Le Labo, The Ordinary and Bumble and bumble. Net sales were $3,715 million in the first quarter of fiscal 2027, which ended on September 30, 2026. Skin care was $1,651 million, makeup $1,048 million, fragrance $861 million and hair care $128 million. Mainland China sales were $614 million. The company sells through department stores, specialty stores, travel retail, its own stores and online. Stéphane de La Faverie is President and Chief Executive Officer, and Akhil Shrivastava is Chief Financial Officer. On October 26, 2026, 247,823,116 Class A shares and 114,507,344 Class B shares were outstanding. The Class A shares trade on the NYSE in US dollars. The fiscal year ends on June 30.

## Thesis

The market prices Estée Lauder as a beauty company that is still repairing its profit after a weak period, and it asks if the recovery will last. Fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS was $2.51, and GAAP EPS was only $0.50 after restructuring charges. The first quarter of fiscal 2027 was strong. Organic sales rose 6%, adjusted operating margin rose to 12.1% from 7.3%, and adjusted EPS was $0.72 against $0.32. The company raised its fiscal 2027 outlook to adjusted EPS of $3.20 to $3.45. Doubts remain. Tariffs still cost money, makeup sales rose only 2%, and the company says that it stays careful about the economy and about conflict in the Middle East. For the gap to close, organic sales growth must stay at 4.0% to 5.5% and the margin must keep rising toward the fiscal 2030 ambition of 16.5% to 18.5%, with double-digit adjusted EPS growth. Cash flow must also follow. Operating cash flow was negative in Q1, and the company expects $1.4 billion to $1.5 billion for the year. The Q2 report in February 2027 is the next test.

## Checkpoints

- Nov 2, 2026: Q1 fiscal 2027 results: margin and sales. Status: Passed. Watch: Adjusted operating margin of 11% or more with organic sales growth of 4% or more passes; less fails. Outcome: Adjusted operating margin was 12.1% and organic sales rose 6%. The company raised its outlook.
- Feb 4, 2027 (estimate): Q2 fiscal 2027 results: outlook. Status: Pending. Watch: An adjusted EPS outlook of $3.20 or more, kept or raised, with organic sales growth of 4% or more passes; a cut fails.
- Aug 2027 (estimate): Fiscal 2027 results: fiscal 2028 outlook. Status: Pending. Watch: A fiscal 2028 outlook with adjusted EPS growth of 10% or more passes; weaker growth fails.

## Balance sheet

Estée Lauder had cash and cash equivalents of $3.20 billion at September 30, 2026. Debt was $7,251 million: $503 million due within a year and $6,748 million long-term ($6,803 million at June 30, 2026). Operating lease liabilities were $1,949 million. Total equity was $4,038 million. Total debt was 64% of total capitalization, against 66% at June 30, 2026. Free cash flow was negative $235 million in Q1 (negative $436 million a year before), and the company paid dividends of $126 million. It expects operating cash flow of $1.4 billion to $1.5 billion in fiscal 2027 and capital spending of about 4% of sales.

As of 2026-09-30.

Sources:

- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1001250/000100125026000060/el-20260930.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1001250/000100125026000057/fy2027q1exhibit991.htm

## Dividends

- Dividend yield: 1.2% (last 12 months, at the current price)
- Paid per share, last 12 months: $1.40 (4 payments)
- Current annual rate: $1.40 ($0.35 x 4 a year)
- Payout ratio: 280% of the earnings of the last fiscal year (the year ended 2026-06-30)
- Latest ex-dividend date: 2026-08-31, $0.35 per share
- Growth from 2020 to 2025: -1.2% a year
- Growth from 2015 to 2025: 3.2% a year

Dividends per share by year: 2016: $1.24, 2017: $1.40, 2018: $1.57, 2019: $1.77, 2020: $1.49, 2021: $2.19, 2022: $2.46, 2023: $2.64, 2024: $2.33, 2025: $1.40.

Source: company filings and market data, read on 2026-11-13.

## Recent events

- 2026-11-04: At a Capital Markets Experience in Shanghai, Estée Lauder gave its fiscal 2030 ambition: sustainable mid-single-digit organic sales growth each year, double-digit adjusted EPS growth through fiscal 2030 and an adjusted operating margin of 16.5% to 18.5% in fiscal 2030.
- 2026-11-02: Estée Lauder reported fiscal 2027 first quarter results. Net sales were $3,715 million, up 7%, and adjusted EPS was $0.72 against $0.32. It raised its fiscal 2027 outlook to organic sales growth of 4.0% to 5.5%, an adjusted operating margin of 12.9% to 13.7% and adjusted EPS of $3.20 to $3.45.
- 2026-10-30: The board declared a quarterly dividend of $0.35 per share on the Class A and Class B shares, payable on December 15, 2026 to holders of record on November 30, 2026.
- 2026-10-05: Estée Lauder bought the rest of Mountain Valley Springs India, the owner of the Forest Essentials brand.
- 2026-08-19: Estée Lauder reported fiscal 2026 results and gave a fiscal 2027 outlook of adjusted EPS of $3.10 to $3.35 and organic sales growth of 3% to 5%.

## Latest news and filings

- Last earnings: 2026-11-02 (8-K: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1001250/000100125026000057/)
- Next earnings: 2027-02-04 (expected; the company has not confirmed it)

| Filed | Form | Headline | Period end | XBRL document | Link |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2026-11-04 | 8-K | Investor disclosure |  | el-20261104 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1001250/000100125026000066/el-20261104.htm |
| 2026-11-02 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Sep 30, 2026 | 2026-09-30 | el-20260930 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1001250/000100125026000060/el-20260930.htm |
| 2026-11-02 | 8-K | Earnings release |  | el-20261102 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1001250/000100125026000057/ |
| 2026-09-08 | 8-K | Investor disclosure |  | el-20260908 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1001250/000100125026000045/el-20260908.htm |
| 2026-08-19 | 10-K | Annual report for the period ended Jun 30, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | el-20260630 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1001250/000100125026000041/el-20260630.htm |
| 2026-08-19 | 8-K | Earnings release |  | el-20260819 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1001250/000100125026000038/ |
| 2026-07-24 | 8-K | Change of directors or officers |  | el-20260720 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1001250/000100125026000033/el-20260720.htm |
| 2026-05-01 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Mar 31, 2026 | 2026-03-31 | el-20260331 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1001250/000100125026000019/el-20260331.htm |
| 2026-05-01 | 8-K | Earnings release |  | el-20260501 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1001250/000100125026000017/ |
| 2026-03-24 | 8-K | Other company news |  | el-20260323 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1001250/000100125026000010/el-20260323.htm |

Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 1001250): https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001001250&type=&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

## Risks

- Medium: Tariffs cost money. The company says that tariffs hurt its Q1 fiscal 2027 results, and it keeps watching changes in the United States and other markets.
- Medium: China and travel retail may slow again. Mainland China sales were $614 million in Q1, up 9% on an organic basis, and its operating margin was only 5.2%. Hainan travel retail drove part of the growth.
- Medium: The margin plan needs cost cuts to continue. Restructuring and other charges were $1.83 per share in fiscal 2026 and $41 million in Q1 fiscal 2027. The fiscal 2030 margin ambition is above today's level.
- Medium: Debt is high against equity. Debt was $7,251 million and total equity was $4,038 million at September 30, 2026. Total debt was 64% of total capitalization.
- Low: Some categories are weak. Makeup sales rose 2% and hair care sales fell 1% in Q1, while fragrance grew 19%.

## Links

- Page: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/EL/
- History of changes: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/EL/history/
- JSON with full history: https://picks.utilarium.app/data/company/EL.json

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