# Engie (ENGIY)

Sector: Energy utility: networks, renewables and energy supply

| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Price | $27.85 |
| Intrinsic value source | AI estimate |
| Data as of | 2026-11-10 |
| Next earnings | 2027-02-25 (confirmed) |

Analysts: Very bullish

Picks: Research only

Discount category: Pricey

## In short

Investors pay more than the AI estimate for the networks and renewables of Engie, and only a fair nuclear deal with lower debt and higher earnings can earn it.

## Themes and gap

- Themes: Power and energy (power-energy), High debt (leverage), Interest rates (interest-rates)
- Gap type: Can close (closable)
- Why: The heads of terms for the nuclear sale, due by December 12, 2026, and the FY 2026 results on February 25, 2027 show whether earnings and debt support the price.

## About

Engie is a French energy company. It produces electricity from renewable sources, gas and nuclear power, runs gas and electricity networks, builds local energy infrastructure such as district heating and cooling networks, and supplies energy to homes and businesses. It reports the activities Renewable & Flex Power, Infrastructures, Supply & Energy Management and Nuclear. In the first nine months of 2026, Infrastructures gave €3,014 million, Renewable & Flex Power €2,576 million and Supply & Energy Management €1,832 million of EBIT of €7,074 million. Renewable and storage capacity was 60.2 GW at September 30, 2026. In May 2026, Engie bought UK Power Networks, an electricity distribution company in the United Kingdom. The company reports in euros under IFRS, and its shares trade in Paris and Brussels. ENGIY is an ADR in the United States, and one ADS represents one share. Engie has more than 90,000 employees in 30 countries. The head office is in La Garenne-Colombes, France. Catherine MacGregor is Chief Executive Officer.

## Thesis

Engie trades above the AI estimate because investors pay for its growing regulated networks, mainly UK Power Networks, its renewable projects and a dividend policy with a floor of €1.10 per share. In the first nine months of 2026, EBIT excluding nuclear rose 9.7% to €7.0 billion, and Engie now expects net recurring income Group share in the upper end of €4.9 billion to €5.5 billion for 2026. For the shares to keep this price, three things must be true. UK Power Networks must add the planned earnings, so that the ratio of economic net debt to EBITDA falls from 4.2 times to 4.0 times or less. Engie and the Belgian State must agree on the sale of the nuclear activities at a price that does not hurt Engie, after they extended the target date to December 12, 2026. Energy prices in Europe must not fall so much that the margins of gas generation and B2B supply drop further. The FY 2026 results on February 25, 2027 are the next test. A weak nuclear deal or lower energy prices can push the shares down to the AI estimate.

## Checkpoints

- Nov 5, 2026: 9M 2026 results and 2026 guidance. Status: Passed. Watch: Growth in EBIT excluding nuclear and confirmed 2026 guidance pass; a guidance cut fails. Outcome: EBIT excluding nuclear rose 9.7%, and Engie now expects net recurring income Group share in the upper end of its range.
- Dec 12, 2026: Heads of terms for the sale of the nuclear activities. Status: Pending. Watch: Signed heads of terms at a valuation that does not hurt Engie pass; no agreement or a low price fails.
- Feb 25, 2027: FY 2026 results and dividend. Status: Pending. Watch: Net recurring income Group share of €5.2 billion or more and a ratio of economic net debt to EBITDA of 4.0 times or less pass; a lower result fails.

## Valuation

The intrinsic value for Engie is an AI estimate from November 10, 2026. It is not an analyst's value. An AI research agent calculated it from Engie's reports. The company reports in euros, and the estimate is in U.S. dollars per ADS. The method is a multiple of net recurring income Group share for 2027, per share. The 9M 2026 results press release (November 5, 2026) expects net recurring income Group share in the upper end of €4.9 billion to €5.5 billion for 2026, and it gives a share capital of €2,542,427,868, which the estimate reads as 2,542,427,868 shares of €1 each. The FY 2025 results press release (February 25, 2026) gives €4.9 billion for 2025 and guidance of €4.9 billion to €5.5 billion for 2027. The form of ADR of the depositary, Citibank, N.A. (Form 424B3, October 15, 2018, under the Form F-6 registration of November 1, 2016), states that each ADS represents one share. The ADS price of $27.85 and the Paris price of €24.73 on November 9, 2026 are close to this ratio. Net recurring income is after interest, so the estimate makes no debt adjustment. It uses an exchange rate of $1.11473 per euro, the market rate on November 9, 2026, as an assumption. The income and the multiples in each case are assumptions. The low case assumes that energy prices fall and the nuclear deal costs value, with €4.9 billion for 2027, or €1.93 per share, at 9 times. It gives €17.35 per share and $19.34 per ADS. The base case assumes €5.5 billion, or €2.16 per share, at 11 times. It gives €23.80 per share and $26.53 per ADS. The high case assumes that UK Power Networks and renewables grow faster, with €5.9 billion, or €2.32 per share, at 12.5 times. It gives €29.01 per share and $32.34 per ADS. The estimate assumes weights of 25%, 50% and 25%. The weighted intrinsic value is €23.49 per share and $26.19 per ADS. The value moves with the euro. Efficient scale and regulation are the main sources of the advantage. Gas and power distribution networks such as UK Power Networks are local monopolies with returns that regulators set, and a second network is very costly to build. But generation and energy supply are competitive, and their prices follow energy markets. The estimate expects the advantage to last 10 years or more, but not 20 years.

As of 2026-11-10.

Sources:

- https://www.engie.com/app/uploads/2026/11/PR-ENGIE-9M-2026-results.pdf
- https://www.engie.com/app/uploads/2026/03/PR-ENGIE-FY-2025-VDEF.pdf
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1243443/000119380518001229/e617989_424b3-engie.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1243443/000119380516004195/e615522_f6ef-engie.htm

## Balance sheet

Engie funds itself with bonds, hybrid bonds, bank loans, new shares and cash flow. At September 30, 2026, net financial debt was €57.0 billion, €18.1 billion more than at December 31, 2025. The increase came mainly from capital spending of €26.2 billion, of which €19.1 billion was for the acquisition of UK Power Networks, and from €4.2 billion of dividends paid. Cash flow from operations of €7.5 billion, a capital increase of €3.0 billion through an accelerated bookbuild and €3.1 billion of hybrid debt partly offset it. Economic net debt, a wider measure that the company uses, was €62.5 billion, and the ratio of economic net debt to EBITDA was 4.2 times, with only five months of UK Power Networks. Engie targets 4.0 times or less after a full year of UK Power Networks. Liquidity was €19.9 billion, including €12.9 billion of cash. S&P rates the debt BBB+, Moody's Baa1 and Fitch BBB+, all with a stable outlook. The dividend for 2025 was €1.35 per share, and the policy is a payout of 65% to 75% of net recurring income Group share with a floor of €1.10 per share. The share capital was €2,542,427,868.

As of 2026-09-30.

Sources:

- https://www.engie.com/app/uploads/2026/11/PR-ENGIE-9M-2026-results.pdf
- https://www.engie.com/app/uploads/2026/07/PR-ENGIE-H1-2026-results.pdf
- https://www.engie.com/app/uploads/2026/03/PR-ENGIE-FY-2025-VDEF.pdf

## Dividends

- Dividend yield: 5.7% (last 12 months, at the current price)
- Paid per share, last 12 months: $1.594 (1 payment)
- Current annual rate: $1.594 ($1.594 x 1 a year)
- Latest ex-dividend date: 2026-05-04, $1.594 per share
- Growth over the last 5 years: 19.8% a year

Dividends per share by year: 2016: $1.106, 2017: $0.531, 2018: $0.86, 2019: $0.849, 2020: $0.00, 2021: $0.647, 2022: $0.965, 2023: $1.491, 2024: $1.547, 2025: $1.682.

Source: company filings and market data, read on 2026-11-10.

## Recent events

- 2026-11-05: Engie reported results for the first nine months of 2026. Revenue was €54.3 billion, EBITDA excluding nuclear rose 8.9% to €10.7 billion, and EBIT excluding nuclear rose 9.7% to €7.0 billion, or 3.3% on an organic basis. UK Power Networks gave €452 million of EBIT since May 2026. Economic net debt was €62.5 billion, 4.2 times EBITDA. Engie now expects net recurring income Group share in the upper end of €4.9 billion to €5.5 billion for 2026.
- 2026-11-04: Engie, Electrabel and the Belgian State extended to December 12, 2026 the target date for the heads of terms on a possible purchase of the nuclear activities by the Belgian State. Engie said that significant differences remain, mainly on the valuation.
- 2026-10-17: The Tihange 3 reactor in Belgium reconnected to the grid after upgrade work for its lifetime extension. Doel 4 reconnected on November 1, 2026.
- 2026-07-31: Engie reported H1 2026 results. EBIT excluding nuclear rose 1.2% organically to €5.3 billion, and net recurring income Group share was €3.0 billion. Engie raised its 2026 guidance for net recurring income Group share to €4.9 billion to €5.5 billion from €4.6 billion to €5.2 billion. It completed the acquisition of UK Power Networks in May 2026 and raised €3.0 billion of new equity through an accelerated bookbuild.
- 2026-04-30: Engie and the Belgian State signed a letter of intent for exclusive negotiations on a possible purchase by the Belgian State of all the nuclear activities of Engie and Electrabel. The parties said that the transaction should not change the overall financial position of Engie and Electrabel.
- 2026-02-25: Engie reported 2025 results. Net recurring income Group share fell to €4.9 billion from €5.5 billion, and net income Group share was €3.8 billion. The board proposed a dividend of €1.35 per share for 2025, a payout of 67%. Engie also agreed to buy 100% of UK Power Networks and gave guidance for net recurring income Group share of €5.2 billion to €5.8 billion in 2028.

## Risks

- Medium: Economic net debt rose to €62.5 billion at September 30, 2026 after the purchase of UK Power Networks, 4.2 times EBITDA. Engie targets 4.0 times or less, and a lower credit rating can raise its cost of debt.
- Medium: The talks with the Belgian State about the nuclear activities can fail or give a low price. Belgian nuclear provisions were €8.6 billion at the end of 2025, and Engie expects them to stay broadly stable at the end of 2026.
- Medium: Lower energy prices in Europe reduce the margins of gas generation and B2B supply. In the first nine months of 2026, EBIT of Gas generation fell 20.4% and EBIT of B2B fell 29.8% on an organic basis.
- Low: Higher energy prices raise working capital needs and margin calls. Cash flow from operations fell by €4.0 billion to €7.5 billion in the first nine months of 2026.
- Low: Regulators set the returns of gas and power networks in France, the United Kingdom and Latin America. Lower allowed returns at a new price review can reduce earnings.
- Low: Engie reports in euros. A stronger U.S. dollar lowers the value of each ADS in U.S. dollars, because the ADS price follows the share price in Paris.

## Links

- Page: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/ENGIY/
- History of changes: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/ENGIY/history/
- JSON with full history: https://picks.utilarium.app/data/company/ENGIY.json

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