# Expedia Group (EXPE) Sector: Online travel booking | Field | Value | |---|---| | Price | $259.79 | | Market cap | $29B | | Intrinsic value source | Analysts | | Data as of | 2026-11-12 | | Next earnings | 2027-02-11 (estimate) | Analysts: Leaning bullish Picks: Research only Discount category: Close to intrinsic value ## In short The market doubts that travel demand and B2B growth hold up as AI tools change how people book trips, and steady bookings growth with buybacks through 2027 can lift its value. ## Themes and gap - Themes: AI disruption risk (ai-disruption), Weak consumer (weak-consumer) - Gap type: Can close (closable) - Why: The Q4 2026 report in February 2027 and its outlook for 2027 show whether bookings growth and margins hold. ## About Expedia Group, Inc. (Expedia Group) is a travel marketplace based in Seattle, Washington. Its consumer brands are Expedia, Hotels.com and Vrbo. It also runs a business-to-business (B2B) platform that sells travel to partners, an advertising network and trivago. It has three segments: B2C, B2B and trivago. In Q3 2026, gross bookings were $34.0 billion, of which B2C was $22.9 billion, and revenue was $4,938 million. Revenue was $12,679 million for nine months of 2026. Ariane Gorin is Chief Executive Officer, and Derek Andersen has been Chief Financial Officer since May 2026. Its common stock trades on the Nasdaq Stock Market in US dollars. It also has Class B common stock, with 5,523,452 shares outstanding at October 23, 2026. ## Thesis The price of Expedia Group depends on whether it can keep gross bookings growth near 10% while margins rise and it returns cash to owners. In Q3 2026, gross bookings rose 11% to $34.0 billion, revenue rose 12% to $4,938 million, and adjusted EBITDA rose 17% to $1,689 million at a margin of 34.2%. B2B revenue rose 23% and B2B gross bookings rose 19%, while B2C gross bookings rose 7%. The company raised its guidance for 2026 to revenue of $16.37 billion to $16.43 billion and adjusted EBITDA margin up 1.8 to 2.0 points. But the guide for Q4 revenue growth is only 4.0% to 5.7%, and booked air tickets fell 6% in Q3. For the price to hold or rise, three things must be true. B2B must keep growing faster than B2C. Travel demand must stay strong while the average daily rate, which rose only 2%, grows slowly. Buybacks, which were $576 million in Q3, and the dividend of $0.48 per share each quarter must continue without more debt. The next tests are the Q4 2026 report in February 2027 and its outlook for 2027. ## Checkpoints - Feb 11, 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 results and the outlook for 2027. Status: Pending. Watch: Revenue lands in the guided range of $3.69 billion to $3.75 billion and the outlook for 2027 shows growth of gross bookings and margin expansion, and this passes; a cut to growth or a lower margin fails. - May 2027 (estimate): Q1 2027 results: B2B growth and margin. Status: Pending. Watch: B2B revenue keeps growing faster than B2C and adjusted EBITDA margin rises, and this passes; slower B2B growth or a falling margin fails. ## Balance sheet At September 30, 2026, Expedia Group had cash and cash equivalents of $5,040 million, restricted cash of $1,543 million and short-term investments of $527 million. Much of the cash is money from travelers for trips not yet taken: deferred merchant bookings were $12,579 million. Total debt was $5,460 million, net of discounts and costs, all in senior unsecured notes: $749 million at 4.625% due 2027, $999 million at 3.8% due 2028, $1,244 million at 3.25% due 2030, $495 million at 2.95% due 2031, $987 million at 5.4% due 2035 and $986 million at 5.5% due 2036. The $749 million falls due within 12 months. In 2026, it repaid $750 million of 5.0% notes in February and settled its convertible notes. It has a $2.5 billion revolving credit facility until March 2031, with no borrowings. Adjusted EBITDA was $4,198 million for the last 12 months. In nine months, it bought back 6.2 million shares for $1.5 billion at an average price of $239.47 under its 2023 program. As of 2026-09-30. Sources: - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1324424/000132442426000062/expe-20260930.htm - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1324424/000132442426000059/earningsrelease-q32026.htm ## Dividends - Dividend yield: 0.7% (last 12 months, at the current price) - Paid per share, last 12 months: $1.84 (4 payments) - Current annual rate: $1.92 ($0.48 x 4 a year) - Payout ratio: 16% of the earnings of the last fiscal year (the year ended 2025-12-31) - Latest ex-dividend date: 2026-08-27, $0.48 per share - Growth from 2020 to 2025: 36.3% a year - Growth from 2015 to 2025: 6.7% a year Dividends per share by year: 2016: $1.00, 2017: $1.16, 2018: $1.24, 2019: $1.32, 2020: $0.34, 2021: $0.00, 2022: $0.00, 2023: $0.00, 2024: $0.00, 2025: $1.60. Source: company filings and market data, read on 2026-11-13. ## Recent events - 2026-11-04: Expedia Group reported Q3 2026 results. Gross bookings rose 11% to $34,008 million, revenue rose 12% to $4,938 million and operating income rose 28% to $1,326 million. Adjusted EBITDA rose 17% to $1,689 million, and adjusted EPS rose 24% to $9.39. Booked room nights rose 7%. - 2026-11-04: Expedia Group raised its guidance for 2026 to gross bookings of $131.4 billion to $131.9 billion and revenue of $16.37 billion to $16.43 billion. For Q4 it guided revenue of $3.69 billion to $3.75 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $830 million to $880 million. It declared a dividend of $0.48 per share, payable on December 10, 2026. - 2026-11-04: Expedia Group said that it bought back about 2.0 million shares for $576 million in Q3. In May 2026 it authorized a new program of up to $5 billion, and $5.1 billion remained under its programs at September 30, 2026. - 2026-04-23: Expedia Group said that Derek Andersen, who was Chief Financial Officer of Snap Inc., became its Chief Financial Officer on May 11, 2026. He succeeded Scott Schenkel. - 2026-04-10: Expedia Group sold $1.0 billion of 5.500% senior notes due 2036. Net proceeds were about $986 million, for general purposes such as debt repayment, buybacks and acquisitions. ## Latest news and filings - Last earnings: 2026-11-04 (8-K: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1324424/000132442426000059/) - Next earnings: 2027-02-11 (expected; the company has not confirmed it) | Filed | Form | Headline | Period end | XBRL document | Link | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026-11-05 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Sep 30, 2026 | 2026-09-30 | expe-20260930 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1324424/000132442426000062/expe-20260930.htm | | 2026-11-04 | 8-K | Earnings release and Investor disclosure | | expe-20261104 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1324424/000132442426000059/ | | 2026-08-06 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Jun 30, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | expe-20260630 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1324424/000132442426000053/expe-20260630.htm | | 2026-08-05 | 8-K | Earnings release and Investor disclosure | | expe-20260805 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1324424/000132442426000051/ | | 2026-06-23 | 8-K | Shareholder vote results | | expe-20260617 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1324424/000132442426000042/expe-20260617.htm | | 2026-05-08 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Mar 31, 2026 | 2026-03-31 | expe-20260331 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1324424/000132442426000035/expe-20260331.htm | | 2026-05-07 | 8-K | Earnings release and Other company news | | expe-20260507 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1324424/000132442426000031/ | | 2026-04-23 | 8-K | Change of directors or officers and Investor disclosure | | expe-20260417 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1324424/000132442426000016/expe-20260417.htm | | 2026-04-10 | 8-K | Other company news | | | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1324424/000110465926042073/tm2611456d1_8k.htm | | 2026-03-30 | 8-K | New material agreement and End of a material agreement | | | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1324424/000110465926036875/tm269986d1_8k.htm | Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 1324424): https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001324424&type=&dateb=&owner=include&count=40 ## Risks - Medium: Growth is slowing. The guide for Q4 revenue growth is 4.0% to 5.7%, against 12% in Q3. Booked air tickets fell 6% in Q3, and the average daily rate rose only 2%. - Medium: Rules and taxes for short-term rentals and lodging can cost money. The company records legal reserves and occupancy tax items, which were $86 million in Q3 2025 and a net gain of $45 million for nine months of 2026. - Medium: Travel demand can fall in a weak economy. Expedia Group says that travel demand is resilient now. A fall in spending would hit gross bookings, which are the base of its revenue. - Low: Debt and buybacks use cash. Total debt was $5,460 million, with $749 million due within 12 months. It paid $1.5 billion for 6.2 million shares in nine months. - Low: Voting control is concentrated. The company lists concentrated voting control and possible conflicts of interest among its risks. ## Links - Page: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/EXPE/ - History of changes: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/EXPE/history/ - JSON with full history: https://picks.utilarium.app/data/company/EXPE.json > Picks is a personal record of stock picks. It gives general opinions about stocks, including a "Top pick" label. They are not tailored to your needs, goals or risk tolerance. Kevin is not a registered adviser and relies on the general-advice exemption in Canadian securities law (NI 31-103 s.8.25). Do your own research, or ask a registered adviser. Kevin may hold any stock on this site. Prices, intrinsic values and ratings can be delayed or wrong; check the original source. Full disclaimer: /disclaimer/.