# Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) Sector: Copper mining | Field | Value | |---|---| | Price | $62.33 | | Market cap | $89B | | Intrinsic value source | Analysts | | Data as of | 2026-11-10 | | Next earnings | 2027-01-21 (estimate) | Analysts: Bullish Picks: Research only Discount category: Far above intrinsic value ## In short Investors pay a premium for the copper reserves and growth projects of Freeport-McMoRan, and only a high copper price with a full Grasberg recovery by the end of 2027 can earn it. ## Themes and gap - Themes: Regulation and courts (regulation-legal), Tariffs and trade (trade-tariffs) - Gap type: Slow (slow) - Why: The Grasberg ramp-up to 80% of capacity in mid-2027 and the IUPK extension show whether output recovers, but the copper price decides most of the result. ## About Freeport-McMoRan (Freeport) is one of the largest publicly traded copper producers in the world. It mines copper, gold and molybdenum. It operates the Grasberg minerals district in Indonesia through PT Freeport Indonesia (PTFI), in which it owns 48.76%. It also operates seven copper mines in Arizona and New Mexico, the Cerro Verde mine in Peru (55.66% owned), the El Abra mine in Chile (51% owned) and two molybdenum mines in Colorado. In 2025, revenue was $25.9 billion, and Freeport sold 3.6 billion pounds of copper, 1.1 million ounces of gold and 83 million pounds of molybdenum. The head office is in Phoenix, Arizona, and Kathleen Quirk is its president and chief executive officer. ## Thesis Freeport trades at a premium because investors pay for its large copper reserves, its growth projects and a copper price that is much higher than a year ago. The average realized copper price was $6.54 per pound in Q3 2026, against $4.68 in Q3 2025, and adjusted EPS rose to $0.88 from $0.50. But Freeport does not control the copper price, and its output in Indonesia is still low: after an external mud rush at the Grasberg Block Cave mine in September 2025, mill throughput in Q3 2026 was 67% of capacity. For the premium to be earned, three things must be true. The copper price must stay near the $6.50 per pound that the company uses for its fourth-quarter outlook. PTFI must reach 80% of capacity in mid-2027 and approach full capacity by the end of 2027, as the company expects. The Indonesia government must issue the amended mining license (IUPK) that extends the Grasberg rights beyond 2041. The $4.5 billion Bagdad expansion, approved on November 4, 2026, adds copper only from mid-2030. The Q4 2026 report, expected in late January 2027, is the next test. If the copper price falls or the ramp-up slips, the premium can shrink quickly. ## Checkpoints - Oct 27, 2026: Q3 2026 results and Grasberg ramp-up. Status: Passed. Watch: Ramp-up on plan and kept targets for 2027 pass; a lower target or a new incident fails. Outcome: Mill throughput was 67% of capacity, and PTFI kept its targets of 80% in mid-2027 and near full capacity by the end of 2027. - Jan 21, 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 results and 2027 outlook. Status: Pending. Watch: Copper sales near 875 million pounds in Q4 2026 and higher 2027 volumes pass; lower volumes or much higher costs fail. - Jun 2027 (estimate): Grasberg at 80% of capacity. Status: Pending. Watch: PTFI at 80% of capacity and a restart of Production Block 1S by mid-2027 pass; a delay fails. ## Balance sheet - Cash: $4.3B - Debt: $9.4B - Net debt: $5.1B - Interest cover: 22× - Undrawn credit line: $4.9B - Debt due within 12 months: $1.7B Freeport's debt is mainly senior notes: $5.3 billion issued by FCX, $3.0 billion by PTFI and $0.4 billion by Freeport Minerals Corporation at September 30, 2026. Total debt was $9.40 billion and cash was $4.34 billion, so net debt was $5.06 billion. Without the $3.24 billion of debt for PTFI's smelter and refinery, net debt was $1.83 billion, and the financial policy keeps net debt on this basis at no more than $3.0 to $4.0 billion. The weighted average interest rate was 5.2%, and the weighted average maturity was about eight years. Debt due within one year was $1.68 billion, which includes $0.7 billion of PTFI notes due in April 2027 and $0.6 billion of FCX notes due in the second half of 2027. FCX had $3.0 billion available under its revolving credit facility, PTFI $1.5 billion and Cerro Verde $350 million, and all three facilities run to 2031. Interest cover is operating income divided by net interest expense for the first nine months of 2026 ($6.49 billion against $295 million). After the noncontrolling interests' share and withholding taxes, $3.3 billion of the cash was available to the parent. In the first nine months of 2026, Freeport paid $650 million of dividends and $305 million for buybacks. There were 1,434,936,034 shares outstanding on October 31, 2026. As of 2026-09-30. Sources: - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/831259/000083125926000045/a3q2026exhibit991.htm - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/831259/000083125926000051/fcx-20260930.htm ## Dividends - Dividend yield: 1.0% (last 12 months, at the current price) - Paid per share, last 12 months: $0.60 (4 payments) - Current annual rate: $0.60 ($0.15 x 4 a year) - Latest ex-dividend date: 2026-10-15, $0.15 per share Dividends per share by year: 2016: $0.00, 2017: $0.00, 2018: $0.15, 2019: $0.20, 2020: $0.05, 2021: $0.225, 2022: $0.60, 2023: $0.60, 2024: $0.60, 2025: $0.60. Source: company filings and market data, read on 2026-11-10. ## Recent events - 2026-11-04: Freeport's board approved a $4.5 billion expansion of the Bagdad copper and molybdenum mine in Arizona. The project more than doubles mining and milling rates and adds about 225 million pounds of copper and 12 million pounds of molybdenum each year. Initial production is targeted for mid-2030. About 20% of the cost falls in 2027, 30% to 35% in 2028 and the rest in 2029 and 2030. Freeport expects long-term unit net cash costs at Bagdad to fall by about 20%. - 2026-10-27: Freeport reported Q3 2026 results. Revenue was $7.55 billion, net income attributable to common stock was $1.17 billion, or $0.81 per share, and adjusted EPS was $0.88. Copper sales were 749 million pounds at an average realized price of $6.54 per pound, and unit net cash costs were $2.07 per pound. Idle facility and restoration costs at PTFI were $244 million. For 2026, Freeport expects copper sales of about 3.0 billion pounds, gold sales of 649 thousand ounces and operating cash flows of about $8.5 billion. - 2026-10-02: Freeport gave a Q3 2026 operational update. Copper production was about 830 million pounds. PTFI's smelter in East Java started to operate again in late August 2026, and about 60 thousand ounces of refined gold sales moved from Q3 to Q4 2026. - 2026-07-23: Freeport reported Q2 2026 results. Net income attributable to common stock was $984 million, or $0.68 per share, and adjusted EPS was $0.74. Copper sales were 710 million pounds at an average realized price of $6.17 per pound. Freeport bought 2.0 million Cerro Verde shares for $107 million, which raised its share of Cerro Verde to 55.66% from 55.08%. - 2026-04-23: Freeport reported Q1 2026 results. Net income attributable to common stock was $881 million, or $0.61 per share, and adjusted EPS was $0.57. The results include a gain of $0.7 billion from an insurance settlement for the September 2025 mud rush. PTFI started a phased ramp-up of the Grasberg Block Cave mine in March 2026 and changed the ramp-up schedule for changes to material handling systems. In February 2026, Freeport and PTFI signed a memorandum of understanding with the Indonesia government to extend the Grasberg rights beyond 2041. Freeport keeps 48.76% of PTFI through 2041 and about 37% from 2042. - 2026-01-22: Freeport reported 2025 results. Revenue was $25.9 billion, net income attributable to common stock was $2.20 billion, or $1.52 per share, and adjusted EPS was $1.77. Q4 2025 adjusted EPS was $0.47. Freeport sold 3.6 billion pounds of copper in 2025 and first expected copper sales of about 3.4 billion pounds for 2026. ## Latest news and filings - Last earnings: 2026-10-27 (8-K: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/831259/000083125926000045/) - Next earnings: 2027-01-21 (expected; the company has not confirmed it) | Filed | Form | Headline | Period end | XBRL document | Link | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026-11-06 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Sep 30, 2026 | 2026-09-30 | fcx-20260930 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/831259/000083125926000051/fcx-20260930.htm | | 2026-11-04 | 8-K | Other company news | | fcx-20261104 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/831259/000083125926000048/fcx-20261104.htm | | 2026-10-27 | 8-K | Earnings release and Investor disclosure | | fcx-20261027 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/831259/000083125926000045/fcx-20261027.htm | | 2026-10-02 | 8-K | Earnings release and Investor disclosure | | fcx-20261002 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/831259/000083125926000043/fcx-20261002.htm | | 2026-09-08 | 8-K | Other company news | | fcx-20260901 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/831259/000083125926000038/fcx-20260901.htm | | 2026-08-06 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Jun 30, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | fcx-20260630 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/831259/000083125926000036/fcx-20260630.htm | | 2026-07-23 | 8-K | Earnings release and Investor disclosure | | fcx-20260723 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/831259/000083125926000033/fcx-20260723.htm | | 2026-06-10 | 8-K | Shareholder vote results | | fcx-20260610 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/831259/000083125926000030/fcx-20260610.htm | | 2026-05-20 | 8-K | New material agreement and End of a material agreement | | fcx-20260514 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/831259/000083125926000027/fcx-20260514.htm | | 2026-05-08 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Mar 31, 2026 | 2026-03-31 | fcx-20260331 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/831259/000083125926000025/fcx-20260331.htm | Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 831259): https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000831259&type=&dateb=&owner=include&count=40 ## Risks - High: Earnings and cash flow move with the copper price, which Freeport does not control. For Q4 2026 alone, each change of $0.10 per pound in the copper price changes operating cash flows by about $75 million. - Medium: The Grasberg Block Cave mine is still in ramp-up after the September 2025 mud rush. Idle facility and restoration costs were $934 million in the first nine months of 2026. A new incident or a delay to the targets for mid-2027 and the end of 2027 can cut output and raise costs. - Medium: The Grasberg rights expire in 2041, and the extension needs an amended IUPK from the Indonesia government. Under the memorandum of understanding, Freeport's share of PTFI falls to about 37% from 2042. PTFI also seeks clarity on a 10% export duty on refined gold that conflicts with its license. - Medium: Costs rise with energy prices, weather and lower ore grades. Unit net cash costs at the U.S. mines were $3.16 per pound in Q3 2026, and extreme weather lowered U.S. operating rates in that quarter. - Low: Growth needs large capital spending: about $4.4 billion in 2026, $4.5 billion for Bagdad, about $7.5 billion for a possible El Abra expansion (a 2024 estimate) and about $4 billion more for Kucing Liar through 2033. Costs can rise with inflation. ## Links - Page: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/FCX/ - History of changes: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/FCX/history/ - JSON with full history: https://picks.utilarium.app/data/company/FCX.json > Picks is a personal record of stock picks. It gives general opinions about stocks, including a "Top pick" label. They are not tailored to your needs, goals or risk tolerance. Kevin is not a registered adviser and relies on the general-advice exemption in Canadian securities law (NI 31-103 s.8.25). Do your own research, or ask a registered adviser. Kevin may hold any stock on this site. 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