# FedEx Freight (FDXF) Sector: Less-than-truckload freight | Field | Value | |---|---| | Price | $131.00 | | Market cap | $20B | | Intrinsic value source | Analysts | | Data as of | 2026-11-13 | | Next earnings | 2027-01-28 (estimate) | Analysts: Bullish Picks: Research only Discount category: Far above intrinsic value ## In short Investors pay a premium for the large network of FedEx Freight, and only higher margins with more shipments through 2027, despite weak freight volumes and new debt after the spin-off, can earn this price. ## Themes and gap - Themes: High debt (leverage), Tariffs and trade (trade-tariffs) - Gap type: Can close (closable) - Why: The Q4 2026 report and the 2027 capital return plan, expected in early 2027, and the first 2027 quarters show whether margins rise in an independent company. ## About FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. (FedEx Freight) is based in Memphis, Tennessee. It is the largest less-than-truckload (LTL) carrier in North America. It moves freight for businesses with nearly 30,000 vehicles and more than 365 locations in the United States, Canada, Mexico and Puerto Rico. FedEx Corporation spun it off on June 1, 2026 and kept 19.9% of its shares. It changed its fiscal year end from May 31 to December 31, so it reports a transition period from June 1 to December 31, 2026. Revenue was $2,442 million in the quarter ended September 30, 2026. The common stock trades on the NYSE in US dollars. FedEx Freight files 10-K and 10-Q reports. ## Thesis The price of FedEx Freight depends on whether it can raise its margins as an independent company while freight volumes are weak and its new debt costs interest. Average daily shipments fell 1.4% in the four months to September 30, 2026, and tonnage per day was flat. FedEx Freight borrowed $4.3 billion to pay about $4.1 billion in cash to FedEx at the spin-off, and debt was $4,421 million at September 30, 2026. It guides adjusted operating income of $695 million to $715 million for June to December 2026. For the price to rise, four things must be true. Freight demand must recover. Prices excluding fuel must keep rising faster than costs. The exit from the transition services agreement with FedEx must stay on time and on budget. The costs of a standalone company must stay within plan. The Q4 2026 report and the 2027 dividend and share buyback plan, expected in early 2027, are the next tests. If freight volumes stay weak, the margin gains can take longer. ## Checkpoints - Jan 28, 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 results and 2027 plans. Status: Pending. Watch: Q4 adjusted operating income is in the guided range of $185 million to $205 million and the company announces its 2027 dividend and share buyback plan, and this passes; a result below $185 million fails. - Q2 2027 (estimate): Q1 2027 results. Status: Pending. Watch: Average daily shipments grow from a year before and the adjusted operating margin rises, and this passes; falling shipments with a lower margin fail. ## Balance sheet - Cash: $388M - Debt: $4.4B - Net debt: $4.0B - Debt due within 12 months: $45M At September 30, 2026, FedEx Freight had cash of $388 million. Total long-term debt was $4,421 million, of which $45 million was current: a term loan of $499 million, senior notes of $3,667 million due from 2029 to 2036 and finance lease liabilities of $255 million. No amounts were outstanding under the revolving credit facility of $1.2 billion, and total liquidity was $1.6 billion. Net pension liabilities were $22 million. Total equity was a deficit of $252 million. As of 2026-09-30. Sources: - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2082247/000162828026068246/fdxf-20260930.htm - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2082247/000162828026068228/fdxf-q3ty26earningsrelease.htm ## Dividends FedEx Freight does not pay a dividend. Source: company filings and market data, read on 2026-11-12. ## Recent events - 2026-10-29: FedEx Freight reported results for the four months ended September 30, 2026. Revenue was $3.3 billion, up 9.2%, operating income was $383 million and adjusted operating income was $510 million. It raised its outlook for revenue and adjusted operating income for the transition period. It repaid $100 million of its term loan early. - 2026-10-07: FedEx Freight amended its credit facilities. It can now borrow under the revolving credit facility with same-day notice, and the leverage ratio adds back some non-cash share-based compensation. - 2026-10-01: The Board set the first annual meeting of stockholders for May 5, 2027. - 2026-09-02: FedEx Freight terminated Michael B. Lyons, Chief Specialized Services and Commercial Officer, after an internal investigation found that he violated its Code of Conduct. The company said that the conduct did not affect its financial reporting or customer relationships. - 2026-06-01: FedEx completed the spin-off of FedEx Freight. It distributed about 80.1% of the shares to its stockholders and kept 19.9%. The shares started to trade on the NYSE as FDXF. ## Latest news and filings - Last earnings: 2026-10-29 (8-K: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2082247/000162828026068228/) - Next earnings: 2027-01-28 (expected; the company has not confirmed it) | Filed | Form | Headline | Period end | XBRL document | Link | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026-10-29 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Sep 30, 2026 | 2026-09-30 | fdxf-20260930 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2082247/000162828026068246/fdxf-20260930.htm | | 2026-10-29 | 8-K | Earnings release | | fdxf-20261029 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2082247/000162828026068228/ | | 2026-10-02 | 8-K | Other company news | | | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2082247/000110465926113295/tm2626881d1_8k.htm | | 2026-09-02 | 8-K | Other company news | | | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2082247/000110465926104793/tm2624680d1_8k.htm | | 2026-08-06 | 8-K | Earnings release | | fdxf-20260806 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2082247/000162828026054314/ | | 2026-08-05 | 10-K | Annual report for the period ended May 31, 2026 | 2026-05-31 | fdxf-20260531 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2082247/000162828026053359/fdxf-20260531.htm | | 2026-06-26 | 8-K | Change of directors or officers | | | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2082247/000110465926078270/tm2619027d1_8k.htm | | 2026-06-25 | 8-K | Earnings release | | fdxf-20260625 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2082247/000162828026045515/ | | 2026-06-01 | 8-K | New material agreement and New debt or financial obligation | | | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2082247/000110465926068521/tm2615735d2_8k.htm | | 2026-05-18 | 8-K | Change of directors or officers | | | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2082247/000110465926063207/tm2614907d1_8k.htm | Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 2082247): https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0002082247&type=&dateb=&owner=include&count=40 ## Risks - High: Freight volumes are weak. Average daily shipments fell 1.4% in the four months to September 30, 2026, and results depend on freight demand in North America. - Medium: Debt is new and large. Debt was $4,421 million at September 30, 2026, with a weighted average interest rate of 4.82% on long-term debt, and total equity was a deficit of $252 million. - Medium: FedEx Freight still gets some IT, financial and administrative services from FedEx under a transition services agreement. A late or costly exit can raise costs. - Medium: The spin-off must keep its tax-free treatment. If the distribution does not qualify, the tax cost can be large. - Low: FedEx keeps 19.9% of the shares and is a related party. A sale of this stake can add supply of shares to the market. ## Links - Page: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/FDXF/ - History of changes: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/FDXF/history/ - JSON with full history: https://picks.utilarium.app/data/company/FDXF.json > Picks is a personal record of stock picks. It gives general opinions about stocks, including a "Top pick" label. They are not tailored to your needs, goals or risk tolerance. Kevin is not a registered adviser and relies on the general-advice exemption in Canadian securities law (NI 31-103 s.8.25). Do your own research, or ask a registered adviser. Kevin may hold any stock on this site. Prices, intrinsic values and ratings can be delayed or wrong; check the original source. Full disclaimer: /disclaimer/.