# Fairfax Financial (FFH) Sector: Property & casualty insurance and reinsurance | Field | Value | |---|---| | Price | CA$2767.49 | | Market cap | CA$55B | | Intrinsic value source | Analysts | | Data as of | 2026-11-12 | | Next earnings | 2027-02-18 (estimate) | Analysts: Leaning bullish Picks: Research only Discount category: Far above intrinsic value ## In short Fairfax trades above its intrinsic value because investors pay for strong insurance profit and book value growth, and only steady growth toward its goal with a well funded IDBI Bank deal can support this price. ## Themes and gap - Themes: Interest rates (interest-rates), High debt (leverage) - Gap type: Slow (slow) - Why: Only several years of book value growth toward the company's goal, with a well funded IDBI Bank deal, can lift earnings power toward the price. ## About Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited (Fairfax) is a Canadian holding company based in Toronto. Through its subsidiaries, it writes property and casualty insurance and reinsurance, and it manages the related investments. Its insurers include Northbridge, Crum & Forster, Zenith National and Allied World. It also owns non-insurance companies such as Recipe, AGT, Sleep Country and Andrew Peller, and it holds many stakes in other companies. Insurance revenue was $24.8 billion in the first nine months of 2026, and total assets were $111.8 billion at September 30, 2026. Fairfax reports in US dollars under IFRS. The company aims to grow book value per share by 15% a year over the long term. Prem Watsa is Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. The pick is the subordinate voting share on the Toronto Stock Exchange in Canadian dollars. Fairfax is not a US SEC filer, so this profile comes from its own interim and annual reports. ## Thesis Fairfax trades above its intrinsic value because investors pay for strong growth in book value and insurance profit, even though its book value moves with its investments. Book value per basic share rose 7.1% to $1,349.15 in the first nine months of 2026, or 8.4% with the $15.00 dividend added back. Insurance results are strong. The undiscounted combined ratio of the insurance and reinsurance operations was 93.2% for nine months, and their adjusted operating income rose 16.9% to $3,693.9 million. But net earnings per diluted share fell to $137.65 from $156.31, because investment gains of $2,434.3 million turned into losses of $475.7 million. A stronger US dollar also cut book value by about $17 per share. Fairfax may make a large purchase: on October 14, 2026, India chose it as strategic buyer of 60.72% of IDBI Bank for about $5.6 billion, and no binding agreement exists yet. For the price to hold, book value per share must keep growing toward the goal of 15% a year, underwriting must stay near this level, and a signed IDBI deal must be funded without hurting insurer capital. The Q4 report and annual report in February 2027 are the next tests. ## Checkpoints - Nov 3, 2026: Q3 2026 report: book value per share. Status: Passed. Watch: Book value per basic share above $1,300 at September 30, 2026 passes; below fails. Outcome: Book value per basic share was $1,349.15, up 7.1% in nine months. - Feb 18, 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 results: book value per share. Status: Pending. Watch: Book value per basic share of $1,400 or more at December 31, 2026 passes; less fails. - Mar 2027 (estimate): IDBI Bank: binding agreements and funding. Status: Pending. Watch: Binding agreements and a funding plan that keep net debt to net total capital under 33% pass; a plan that needs much more debt fails. ## Balance sheet At September 30, 2026, Fairfax had holding company cash and investments of $1,935.3 million. Total debt was $15,060.1 million: $9,754.5 million at the holding company, $1,661.9 million at insurance and reinsurance companies and $3,643.7 million at non-insurance companies. Net debt was $13,135.6 million. Net debt to net total capital was 29.1% (26.1% at December 31, 2025), and interest coverage was 8.4 times. Common shareholders' equity was $26,911.8 million, preferred stock $231.7 million and non-controlling interests $4,852.6 million. Fairfax bought back 1,086,435 shares for $1,771.8 million in nine months. The pre-tax excess of fair value over carrying value of non-insurance associates and listed subsidiaries was $5,105.0 million, which is not in book value. All amounts are in US dollars. As of 2026-09-30. Sources: - https://www.fairfax.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/11/FFH-2026-Q3-Interim-Report-Final-Z3yjaS825R.pdf ## Dividends - Dividend yield: 0.8% (last 12 months, at the current price) - Paid per share, last 12 months: CA$20.817 (1 payment) - Current annual rate: CA$20.817 (CA$20.817 x 1 a year) - Latest ex-dividend date: 2026-01-15, CA$20.817 per share - Growth from 2020 to 2025: 10.5% a year - Growth from 2015 to 2025: 6.0% a year Dividends per share by year: 2016: CA$14.541, 2017: CA$13.175, 2018: CA$12.435, 2019: CA$13.255, 2020: CA$13.042, 2021: CA$12.73, 2022: CA$12.507, 2023: CA$13.388, 2024: CA$20.237, 2025: CA$21.504. Source: company filings and market data, read on 2026-11-13. ## Recent events - 2026-11-03: Fairfax's board approved its Q3 2026 interim report. Net earnings attributable to shareholders were $929.6 million ($43.32 per diluted share), the undiscounted combined ratio was 92.5% and net losses on investments were $858.7 million. Book value per basic share was $1,349.15. - 2026-10-27: Fairfax closed the sale of its 80.0% interest in the life insurance operations of Eurolife to Eurobank for about $906 million, with a pre-tax gain of about $200 million. It keeps 80.0% of Eurolife General and agreed to buy 45.0% of Eurobank's Cyprus non-life insurer. - 2026-10-14: The Government of India chose Fairfax as strategic buyer of a 60.72% interest in IDBI Bank for about $5.6 billion. Fairfax would pay with cash, existing credit, possible asset sales and investment contributions. No binding agreements exist yet. - 2026-10-09: Recipe, a Fairfax company, agreed to buy the food service business Evergood in Greece for about $350 million, including debt of about $113 million. It expects to close in late 2026 or early 2027. - 2026-05-29: Fairfax extended its option to buy the minority interests in Allied World to December 31, 2029. - 2026-03-09: AGT, a Fairfax company, completed a Cdn$449.5 million public offering of shares at Cdn$23.00. Fairfax bought Cdn$200.0 million of AGT shares and keeps 56.2% of AGT. ## Risks - Medium: Investment results swing. Fairfax had net losses on investments of $475.7 million in nine months of 2026 against gains of $2,434.3 million a year before. It holds common stocks of $9,959.5 million and associates of $8,110.2 million. - Medium: The IDBI Bank purchase is large. The price of about $5.6 billion is about 21% of common shareholders' equity. The terms are not final, a bank in India has its own risks and regulators must approve. - Medium: Catastrophe losses and reserves can hurt underwriting. Catastrophe losses were $358.7 million in nine months of 2026 against $1,004.2 million a year before, which had $700.7 million from the California wildfires. Middle East conflict losses were $35.7 million in Q3. - Medium: Debt has risen. Total debt was $15,060.1 million at September 30, 2026 against $13,642.9 million at the end of 2025, and net debt to net total capital rose to 29.1% from 26.1%. - Low: Currency moves book value. Fairfax reports in US dollars and holds assets in many currencies. Other comprehensive loss of $337.9 million in nine months came mainly from a stronger US dollar. The shares trade in Canadian dollars. ## Links - Page: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/FFH/ - History of changes: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/FFH/history/ - JSON with full history: https://picks.utilarium.app/data/company/FFH.json > Picks is a personal record of stock picks. It gives general opinions about stocks, including a "Top pick" label. 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