# Comfort Systems USA (FIX) Sector: HVAC and electrical contracting services | Field | Value | |---|---| | Price | $1161.63 | | Market cap | $41B | | Intrinsic value source | Analysts | | Data as of | 2026-11-12 | | Next earnings | 2027-02-18 (estimate) | Analysts: Very bullish Picks: Research only Discount category: Close to intrinsic value ## In short The market prices Comfort Systems on a data center building boom that may fade, and a growing backlog with steady profit margins through 2027 can lift its value. ## Themes and gap - Themes: AI supplier (ai-supplier), Power and energy (power-energy) - Gap type: Can close (closable) - Why: The Q4 report in February 2027 shows whether backlog keeps growing and whether profit margins hold. ## About Comfort Systems USA, Inc. designs, installs, maintains and repairs mechanical and electrical systems in commercial, industrial and institutional buildings in the United States, from 211 locations in 155 cities. Its mechanical segment (HVAC, plumbing, piping, controls, off-site construction and fire protection) made 68.6% of revenue in Q3 2026, and its electrical segment made 31.4%. Technology customers, mainly data centers, made 60.8% of Q3 2026 revenue, against 45.8% a year earlier, and manufacturing made 16.8%. New construction was 76.2% of revenue. Revenue was $3.77 billion in Q3 2026, and backlog was $17.81 billion at September 30, 2026. Brian Lane is Chief Executive Officer. The company has almost no debt and paid a dividend of $0.90 per share in Q3 2026. The pick is the common stock on the NYSE (FIX), in US dollars. ## Thesis The market prices Comfort Systems as a builder whose profit is tied to a data center building boom that may not last. Data centers drive most of the growth: technology customers were 60.8% of revenue in Q3 2026, and backlog grew to $17.81 billion from $9.38 billion a year earlier. Revenue rose 54% in Q3 2026 and net income per diluted share rose 69% to $13.91. The company says that it expects to grow organically through 2027 and to keep profit levels high, and it expects 65% to 75% of backlog to become revenue within 12 months. For the price to rise, backlog must keep turning into revenue at the current profit margin, and new orders must replace the data center work that ends. Fixed-price contracts lose money if labor and materials cost more than bid. The Q4 report in February 2027 and its backlog are the next test. If backlog and margins hold, the gap can close within about two years. ## Checkpoints - Feb 18, 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 results: backlog and margin. Status: Pending. Watch: Backlog above $17.81 billion with adjusted EBITDA of 17% of revenue or more passes; a lower backlog or margin fails. - Oct 2027 (estimate): Q3 2027 results: revenue growth. Status: Pending. Watch: Revenue above $3.77 billion for the quarter passes; lower revenue fails. ## Balance sheet At September 30, 2026, Comfort Systems had cash of $2,158.0 million and total debt of $49.6 million, with no borrowings on its revolving credit facility. Debt was notes to former owners of $48.95 million and other debt of $0.6 million. Total stockholders' equity was $3,335.2 million, against $2,448.8 million at December 31, 2025. Billings in excess of costs and deferred revenue were $3,872.0 million, against $2,120.3 million. It had 34,985,904 shares outstanding at October 16, 2026, and 6,129,102 treasury shares at September 30, 2026. Comfort Systems paid dividends of $2.40 per share in the first nine months of 2026. All amounts are in US dollars. As of 2026-09-30. Sources: - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1035983/000110465926118159/fix-20260930x10q.htm - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1035983/000110465926118156/fix-ex99d1.htm ## Dividends - Dividend yield: 0.3% (last 12 months, at the current price) - Paid per share, last 12 months: $3.40 (4 payments) - Current annual rate: $4.00 ($1.00 x 4 a year) - Payout ratio: 7% of the earnings of the last fiscal year (the year ended 2025-12-31) - Latest ex-dividend date: 2026-11-12, $1.00 per share - Growth from 2020 to 2025: 35.6% a year - Growth from 2015 to 2025: 22.8% a year Dividends per share by year: 2016: $0.275, 2017: $0.295, 2018: $0.33, 2019: $0.395, 2020: $0.425, 2021: $0.48, 2022: $0.56, 2023: $0.85, 2024: $1.20, 2025: $1.95. Source: company filings and market data, read on 2026-11-13. ## Recent events - 2026-11-05: Comfort Systems said that its board added 994,606 shares to its stock repurchase program, so that up to 1,000,000 shares can be bought. Since the program began, it bought 11,752,570 shares for $1,711,769,315 through November 4, 2026. - 2026-10-22: Comfort Systems reported Q3 2026 results. Revenue rose to $3.77 billion from $2.45 billion, net income was $489.0 million ($13.91 per diluted share) and adjusted EBITDA was $667.9 million, or 17.7% of revenue. Backlog was $17.81 billion, against $14.06 billion at June 30, 2026. Operating cash flow was $1.01 billion. The company declared a quarterly dividend for holders of record on November 12, 2026. - 2026-10-22: In its Form 10-Q, Comfort Systems said that it had no borrowings on its revolving credit facility at September 30, 2026, against $100.0 million at December 31, 2025. It held cash of $2,158.0 million. ## Latest news and filings - Last earnings: 2026-10-22 (8-K: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1035983/000110465926118156/) - Next earnings: 2027-02-18 (expected; the company has not confirmed it) | Filed | Form | Headline | Period end | XBRL document | Link | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026-11-05 | 8-K | Other company news | | | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1035983/000110465926122938/tm2629087d1_8k.htm | | 2026-10-28 | 8-K | Investor disclosure | | | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1035983/000110465926119613/tm2628385d1_8k.htm | | 2026-10-22 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Sep 30, 2026 | 2026-09-30 | fix-20260930x10q | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1035983/000110465926118159/fix-20260930x10q.htm | | 2026-10-22 | 8-K | Earnings release and Other company news | | fix-20261022x8k | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1035983/000110465926118156/ | | 2026-10-22 | 8-K | Change of directors or officers and Investor disclosure | | | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1035983/000110465926118149/tm2628079d1_8k.htm | | 2026-08-03 | 8-K | Investor disclosure | | | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1035983/000110465926089781/tm2621841d1_8k.htm | | 2026-07-23 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Jun 30, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | fix-20260630x10q | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1035983/000110465926086258/fix-20260630x10q.htm | | 2026-07-23 | 8-K | Earnings release and Other company news | | fix-20260723x8k | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1035983/000110465926086255/ | | 2026-06-22 | 8-K | Change of directors or officers and Investor disclosure | | | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1035983/000110465926076386/tm2618408d1_8k.htm | | 2026-05-21 | 8-K | Shareholder vote results | | | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1035983/000110465926065127/tm2615333d1_8k.htm | Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 1035983): https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001035983&type=&dateb=&owner=include&count=40 ## Risks - High: Data center dependence. Technology customers made 60.8% of revenue in Q3 2026. A pause in spending by a few large customers would cut new orders and, later, revenue and profit. - Medium: Contract estimates may be wrong. Comfort Systems books revenue as costs are incurred, and many jobs have fixed prices. If labor or materials cost more than bid, it must reverse profit that it already booked. - Medium: Labor and equipment. Over the last several years, Comfort Systems has seen higher labor costs and late deliveries of some materials and equipment. A shortage of skilled workers can slow jobs and raise costs. - Medium: The profit margin is high. Adjusted EBITDA was 17.7% of revenue in Q3 2026, against 16.9% a year earlier and 15.3% for the first nine months of 2025. A return to lower margins would cut earnings per share even if revenue grows. ## Links - Page: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/FIX/ - History of changes: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/FIX/history/ - JSON with full history: https://picks.utilarium.app/data/company/FIX.json > Picks is a personal record of stock picks. It gives general opinions about stocks, including a "Top pick" label. They are not tailored to your needs, goals or risk tolerance. Kevin is not a registered adviser and relies on the general-advice exemption in Canadian securities law (NI 31-103 s.8.25). Do your own research, or ask a registered adviser. Kevin may hold any stock on this site. Prices, intrinsic values and ratings can be delayed or wrong; check the original source. Full disclaimer: /disclaimer/.