# Fox Corporation (FOXA) Sector: Television broadcasting and cable news | Field | Value | |---|---| | Price | $67.98 | | Market cap | $29B | | Intrinsic value source | Analysts | | Data as of | 2026-11-12 | | Next earnings | 2027-02-03 (estimate) | Analysts: Bullish Picks: Research only Discount category: Close to intrinsic value ## In short The market weighs strong news and sports earnings against the debt and new shares of the Roku purchase, and a Roku that adds earnings with the planned cost savings can lift its value. ## Themes and gap - Themes: High debt (leverage), Regulation and courts (regulation-legal) - Gap type: Can close (closable) - Why: The Roku financial statements in January 2027 and the Q2 and Q3 reports in February and May 2027 show whether Roku adds earnings and whether the bridge loan can be refinanced. ## About Fox Corporation (Fox) is a news, sports and entertainment company based in New York. It has two reportable segments. Cable Network Programming makes and licenses news and sports channels for cable, satellite and streaming distributors. Television runs the FOX broadcast network, the free streaming service Tubi, 29 full-power television stations, including 11 duopolies, and other digital platforms, mostly in the US. FOX One, its paid streaming service, and the FOX Studio Lot sit in Corporate and Other. In the fiscal year that ended June 30, 2026, revenue was $17.1 billion, Adjusted EBITDA was $3.9 billion and net income attributable to Fox stockholders was $1,685 million. Lachlan Murdoch is Executive Chair and Chief Executive Officer. On November 6, 2026, Fox completed its purchase of Roku, Inc., which runs a connected TV platform. Fox files 10-K and 10-Q reports with the SEC and has a fiscal year that ends on June 30. Its Class A common stock (FOXA) and Class B common stock (FOX) trade on the Nasdaq Global Select Market in US dollars. ## Thesis The price of Fox depends on two things: whether its news and sports earnings hold after the World Cup year, and whether the Roku purchase adds earnings faster than it adds debt and shares. The market has to weigh a record start to fiscal 2027, with Q1 revenue up 22% and Adjusted EBITDA up 54% on the FIFA World Cup and political advertising, against the long decline of cable subscribers and a very large deal. On November 6, 2026, Fox paid about $14.1 billion in cash and issued about 144.5 million Class A shares for Roku. Its borrowings rise from $6.6 billion at September 30, 2026 to about $17.0 billion after the new loans, and its share count rises by about a third. For the price to hold or rise, three things must be true. Fox's own Adjusted EBITDA must stay near the $3.9 billion of fiscal 2026 once the World Cup is over. Roku must keep its recent profit, which was $362 million of operating income in the first nine months of 2026, and Fox must deliver the cost savings of about $400 million a year that it states for the first two years. Fox must also replace the $8.4 billion bridge loan, which is due 364 days after closing, with longer debt at a fair cost. The next tests are the Roku financial statements and pro forma information, due in late January 2027, the Q2 report, expected in early February 2027, and the Q3 report, expected in early May 2027. ## Checkpoints - Jan 2027 (estimate): Roku financial statements and pro forma information (Form 8-K/A). Status: Pending. Watch: Roku's results and the purchase price allocation show operating income near its recent level with no large write-down, and this passes; a clear fall in Roku earnings or an impairment fails. - Feb 3, 2027 (estimate): Q2 fiscal 2027 results. Status: Pending. Watch: Adjusted EBITDA of Cable Network Programming and Television is at or above the prior year's and the cost savings plan is on track, and this passes; a fall in either segment fails. - May 2027 (estimate): Q3 fiscal 2027 results: first full quarter with Roku. Status: Pending. Watch: Roku operating income stays positive and Fox has a plan or a deal to replace the bridge loan with longer debt, and this passes; a delay or a high-cost refinancing fails. ## Balance sheet - Cash: $4.5B - Debt: $6.6B - Net debt: $2.1B - EBITDA, last 12 months: $4.5B - Net debt / EBITDA: 0.5× (low) - Undrawn credit line: $1.0B, to June 2028 At September 30, 2026, before the Roku purchase, Fox had cash of $4,536 million and borrowings of $6,607 million, which are senior notes. It had a $1.0 billion revolving credit facility that matures in June 2028, with nothing drawn. Adjusted EBITDA for the 12 months to September 30, 2026 was $4,482 million, which is the fiscal 2026 amount of $3,906 million plus Q1 of fiscal 2027 and less Q1 of fiscal 2026. The remaining share repurchase authorization was about $3.4 billion, and Fox bought no shares in Q1. The Roku purchase changes this. Fox borrowed $2.0 billion under a term loan and $8.4 billion under a bridge loan on November 6, 2026, so its borrowings are about $17.0 billion. Roku had cash and short-term investments of $2.7 billion at September 30, 2026 and no debt. The bridge loan is due 364 days after closing. Fox also signed a new $1.5 billion five-year revolving credit facility on November 6, 2026. Fox must keep an operating income leverage ratio of 4.5 to 1.0 under its credit agreements, with an increase for four quarters after a large purchase. As of 2026-09-30. Sources: - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1754301/000162828026068670/fox-20260930.htm - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1754301/000119312526451888/d141597d8k.htm - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1428439/000162828026068887/roku-20260930.htm ## Dividends - Dividend yield: 0.8% (last 12 months, at the current price) - Paid per share, last 12 months: $0.57 (2 payments) - Current annual rate: $0.57 (the last two payments) - Payout ratio: 15% of the earnings of the last fiscal year (the year ended 2026-06-30) - Latest ex-dividend date: 2026-09-02, $0.29 per share - Growth from 2020 to 2025: 3.6% a year Dividends per share by year: 2016: $0.00, 2017: $0.00, 2018: $0.00, 2019: $0.46, 2020: $0.46, 2021: $0.47, 2022: $0.49, 2023: $0.51, 2024: $0.53, 2025: $0.55. Source: company filings and market data, read on 2026-11-13. ## Recent events - 2026-11-06: Fox completed its purchase of Roku. Each Roku share became 0.9799 of a Fox Class A share and $95.30 in cash. Fox will issue about 144.5 million Class A shares and pay about $14.1 billion in cash, not counting vested and converted Roku equity awards. Fox expects about $400 million of run-rate cost synergies within two years. Anthony Wood, the founder of Roku, joined the Fox board. - 2026-11-06: Fox borrowed $2.0 billion under an amended term loan and $8.4 billion under a new bridge loan to pay the cash part of the price. The bridge loan is due 364 days after closing. Fox also signed a new $1.5 billion five-year revolving credit facility on November 6, 2026, with no borrowings on it at closing, but about $29 million of letters of credit. - 2026-11-02: Fox reported Q1 fiscal 2027 results. Revenue rose 22% to $4.57 billion, Adjusted EBITDA rose 54% to $1.64 billion and net income attributable to Fox stockholders was $943 million, or $2.20 a share. Adjusted EPS was $2.54, against $1.51 a year before. The FIFA World Cup and political advertising lifted advertising revenue by 47%. - 2026-10-19: Fox announced that Adam Ciongoli will step down as Chief Legal and Policy Officer on December 1, 2026 and stay as a special advisor for 18 months. - 2026-10-14: Holders of Fox Class B common stock held a special meeting on the Roku merger. The Form 10-Q says that Fox and Roku received the required stockholder approvals in October 2026. - 2026-09-08: Fox and Roku each received a request for more information (a second request) from the US Department of Justice in its review of the merger. This extended the waiting period under the Hart-Scott-Rodino Act. - 2026-08-06: Fox reported results for fiscal 2026. Revenue was $17.1 billion, up 5%, and Adjusted EPS was $5.42, against $4.78 a year before. Fox filed its Form 10-K the same day. ## Latest news and filings - Last earnings: 2026-11-02 (8-K: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1754301/000162828026068663/) - Next earnings: 2027-02-03 (expected; the company has not confirmed it) | Filed | Form | Headline | Period end | XBRL document | Link | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026-11-06 | 8-K | New material agreement and Acquisition or sale completed | | | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1754301/000119312526451888/d141597d8k.htm | | 2026-11-04 | 8-K | Shareholder vote results | | | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1754301/000119312526447183/d85875d8k.htm | | 2026-11-02 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Sep 30, 2026 | 2026-09-30 | fox-20260930 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1754301/000162828026068670/fox-20260930.htm | | 2026-11-02 | 8-K | Earnings release | | fox-20261102 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1754301/000162828026068663/ | | 2026-10-20 | 8-K | Change of directors or officers | | fox-20261019 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1754301/000162828026066365/fox-20261019.htm | | 2026-10-14 | 8-K | Shareholder vote results | | | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1754301/000119312526421830/d128102d8k.htm | | 2026-10-06 | 8-K | Other company news | | | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1754301/000119312526415558/d46542d8k.htm | | 2026-09-09 | 8-K | Other company news | | | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1754301/000119312526385979/d176496d8k.htm | | 2026-08-06 | 10-K | Annual report for the period ended Jun 30, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | fox-20260630 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1754301/000162828026053960/fox-20260630.htm | | 2026-08-06 | 8-K | Earnings release | | fox-20260806 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1754301/000162828026053892/ | Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 1754301): https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001754301&type=&dateb=&owner=include&count=40 ## Risks - High: The Roku purchase is large. Fox borrowed $10.4 billion for it and issued about 144.5 million shares. If Roku earns less than expected, or the cost savings come late, earnings per share fall and debt stays high. The loan agreements require an operating income leverage ratio of 4.5 to 1.0. - Medium: Cable subscribers decline over time, and sports rights cost more each year. Fox's Q1 fiscal 2027 benefited from the FIFA World Cup, which does not repeat in the same way in later years. - Medium: Roku earns most of its profit from platform advertising and subscriptions, which move with the economy, and its devices business had a gross loss of $41 million in the first nine months of 2026. Roku also serves rivals of Fox on its platform, and Fox says it will keep the platform open. - Medium: Smartmatic sued Fox News Media and the FOX Television Stations in February 2021 and asks for $2.7 billion in damages. Fox says the case has no merit. A trial is not expected before 2027. - Low: Fox's earnings depend on political advertising and live sports in some years. A year with no World Cup or election gives lower advertising revenue than Q1 of fiscal 2027. ## Links - Page: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/FOXA/ - History of changes: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/FOXA/history/ - JSON with full history: https://picks.utilarium.app/data/company/FOXA.json > Picks is a personal record of stock picks. It gives general opinions about stocks, including a "Top pick" label. They are not tailored to your needs, goals or risk tolerance. Kevin is not a registered adviser and relies on the general-advice exemption in Canadian securities law (NI 31-103 s.8.25). Do your own research, or ask a registered adviser. Kevin may hold any stock on this site. Prices, intrinsic values and ratings can be delayed or wrong; check the original source. Full disclaimer: /disclaimer/.