# First Solar (FSLR)

Sector: Thin-film solar semiconductor modules

| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Price | $172.30 |
| Market cap | $19B |
| Intrinsic value source | Analysts |
| Data as of | 2026-11-13 |
| Next earnings | 2027-02-23 (estimate) |

Analysts: Leaning bullish

Picks: Research only

Discount category: Close to intrinsic value

## In short

The market doubts how long US tax credits and trade rules will protect First Solar, and stronger bookings after the new minimum import prices through 2027 can lift its value.

## Themes and gap

- Themes: Tariffs and trade (trade-tariffs), Regulation and courts (regulation-legal), Power and energy (power-energy)
- Gap type: Can close (closable)
- Why: The start of the Section 232 minimum import prices on December 4, 2026 and the Q4 2026 report with 2027 guidance, expected in late February 2027, show whether bookings and volume recover.

## About

First Solar, Inc. (First Solar) is based in Phoenix, Arizona. It makes photovoltaic (PV) solar modules with a thin-film cadmium telluride (CdTe) technology that does not depend on the Chinese crystalline silicon supply chain. It is the largest PV module maker in the Western Hemisphere. It runs five factories in the United States and has factories abroad, including in India. A sixth US factory, in South Carolina, started production in September 2026. Net sales were $1,231 million in Q3 2026 and $3,331 million for nine months. The contracted backlog was 44.0 GW at September 30, 2026. The common stock trades on Nasdaq in US dollars. First Solar files 10-K and 10-Q reports.

## Thesis

The price of First Solar depends on how long US policy supports modules made in the United States. Section 45X tax credits are most of its profit: management expects credits of $2.07 billion to $2.19 billion in 2026, against adjusted EBITDA of $2.55 billion to $2.75 billion. Under current law the credit phases down from 2030 and ends after 2032. In Q3 2026 the volume sold to third parties fell 22.0%, and First Solar lowered its 2026 guidance for volume and net sales, partly because customers terminated contracts. For the price to hold or rise, four things must be true. The Section 232 minimum import prices for cells and modules must start on December 4, 2026 and lift US prices and new bookings. Customers must take the modules in the backlog of 44.0 GW. The second phase of the South Carolina plant must start in mid-2027 as planned. The 45X credit must stay in law. The Q4 2026 report, expected in late February 2027, with the 2027 guidance, is the next test. If policy changes or more contracts end, the price can fall.

## Checkpoints

- Dec 4, 2026: Section 232 minimum import prices start. Status: Pending. Watch: The minimum import prices for solar cells and modules take effect on December 4, 2026 as proclaimed, and this passes; a delay or a removal fails.
- Feb 23, 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 results and 2027 guidance. Status: Pending. Watch: 2026 adjusted EBITDA is in the guided range of $2.55 billion to $2.75 billion and the 2027 guidance shows higher volume, and this passes; a miss or lower 2027 volume fails.

## Balance sheet

- Cash: $1.6B
- Debt: $108M
- Net cash: $1.5B

At September 30, 2026, First Solar had cash and cash equivalents of $1,576.0 million and marketable securities of $48.1 million. Total debt was $107.7 million, all working capital loans in India, and the India credit facility had no balance, against $373.7 million at December 31, 2025. Restricted marketable securities of $202.5 million fund the module collection and recycling program. The release gives a net cash balance of $1.5 billion, down from $2.4 billion at December 31, 2025, because of working capital and capital spending. The revolving credit facility of February 2026 has a capacity of $1.5 billion. First Solar expects capital spending of $0.6 billion to $0.8 billion and a net cash balance of $1.7 billion to $2.3 billion for 2026.

As of 2026-09-30.

Sources:

- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1274494/000127449426000212/fslr-20260930.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1274494/000127449426000211/ex991pressreleaseq3-2026.htm

## Dividends

First Solar does not pay a dividend.

Source: company filings and market data, read on 2026-11-12.

## Recent events

- 2026-10-29: First Solar reported Q3 2026 results. Net sales fell 23% to $1.23 billion, net income was $571 million, or $5.30 per diluted share, and adjusted EBITDA was $744 million. It lowered 2026 guidance for net sales to $4.6 billion to $4.9 billion and adjusted EBITDA to $2.55 billion to $2.75 billion. The board authorized share repurchases of up to $500 million.
- 2026-09-30: In September 2026, the first phase of the South Carolina factory started commercial production. First Solar expects the second phase to start in mid-2027.
- 2026-08-06: A presidential proclamation under Section 232 set minimum import prices of $0.22 per watt for solar cells and $0.38 per watt for solar modules, effective December 4, 2026, and an additional 15% duty on imports of polysilicon products. First Solar expects a favorable effect on its volume and prices.
- 2026-02-24: First Solar asked the US International Trade Commission to act against TOPCon solar products of ten groups of companies, which it says infringe a First Solar patent.
- 2026-02-13: First Solar entered into a new five-year senior unsecured revolving credit facility of $1.5 billion and ended its prior facility of $1.0 billion.

## Latest news and filings

- Last earnings: 2026-10-29 (8-K: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1274494/000127449426000211/)
- Next earnings: 2027-02-23 (expected; the company has not confirmed it)

| Filed | Form | Headline | Period end | XBRL document | Link |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2026-10-29 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Sep 30, 2026 | 2026-09-30 | fslr-20260930 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1274494/000127449426000212/fslr-20260930.htm |
| 2026-10-29 | 8-K | Earnings release and Other company news |  | fslr-20261029 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1274494/000127449426000211/ |
| 2026-07-30 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Jun 30, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | fslr-20260630 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1274494/000127449426000170/fslr-20260630.htm |
| 2026-07-30 | 8-K | Earnings release |  | fslr-20260730 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1274494/000127449426000169/ |
| 2026-05-15 | 8-K | Shareholder vote results |  | fslr-20260513 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1274494/000127449426000138/fslr-20260513.htm |
| 2026-04-30 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Mar 31, 2026 | 2026-03-31 | fslr-20260331 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1274494/000127449426000109/fslr-20260331.htm |
| 2026-04-30 | 8-K | Earnings release |  | fslr-20260430 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1274494/000127449426000108/ |
| 2026-02-24 | 10-K | Annual report for the period ended Dec 31, 2025 | 2025-12-31 | fslr-20251231 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1274494/000127449426000021/fslr-20251231.htm |
| 2026-02-24 | 8-K | Earnings release |  | fslr-20260224 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1274494/000127449426000020/ |
| 2026-02-19 | 8-K | New material agreement and End of a material agreement |  | fslr-20260213 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1274494/000127449426000016/fslr-20260213.htm |

Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 1274494): https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001274494&type=&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

## Risks

- High: Profit depends on the Section 45X credit. First Solar expects credits of $2.07 billion to $2.19 billion in 2026, and the credit phases down from 2030 and ends after 2032. A change in law would cut earnings.
- High: Customers can end contracts. Contract terminations lowered revenue in 2026, and First Solar is in court with BP Solar affiliates, which refused to pay for modules under supply agreements.
- Medium: Trade policy can change. The Section 232 minimum import prices and the duties on imports from Southeast Asia support US prices, but they can change or end.
- Medium: Volume fell. Modules sold to third parties fell 22.0% in Q3 2026, and 2026 volume guidance fell to 16.0 GW to 17.0 GW from 17.0 GW to 18.2 GW.
- Medium: Solar makers in China have much spare capacity, which can push module prices down.

## Links

- Page: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/FSLR/
- History of changes: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/FSLR/history/
- JSON with full history: https://picks.utilarium.app/data/company/FSLR.json

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