# GFL Environmental (GFL)

Sector: Waste management

| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Price | $43.38 |
| Market cap | $16B |
| Intrinsic value source | AI estimate |
| Data as of | 2026-11-12 |
| Next earnings | 2027-02-10 (estimate) |

Analysts: Bullish

Picks: Research only

Discount category: Close to intrinsic value

## In short

The market discounts GFL for its high debt, growth through acquisitions and sponsor share sales, and only lower leverage with more free cash flow per share after SECURE can lift its value.

## Themes and gap

- Themes: High debt (leverage), Interest rates (interest-rates)
- Gap type: Slow (slow)
- Why: Leverage falls and the SECURE gains show only over several quarters of results, from the Q4 2026 report through the 2027 reports.

## About

GFL Environmental Inc. (GFL) collects, transfers, recycles and disposes of solid waste for municipal, residential, and commercial and industrial customers. It calls itself the fourth largest diversified environmental services company in North America. It operates throughout Canada and in 19 U.S. states, and it had about 17,000 employees at September 30, 2026. In 2025, about 68% of revenue came from the United States and 32% from Canada. In the first nine months of 2026, 67% came from the United States and 33% from Canada. Revenue was C$6,615.9 million in 2025 and C$2,155.3 million in Q3 2026. GFL sold its Environmental Services business in March 2025 and kept a minority equity interest in it, with an option to buy back the rest. On September 1, 2026, it bought SECURE Waste Infrastructure, a waste processing and disposal company in Western Canada and North Dakota. The subordinate voting shares trade on the NYSE and the TSX as GFL. The executive head office moved to Miami Beach, Florida in January 2026, and the company stays incorporated in Ontario. Patrick Dovigi, the founder, is Chief Executive Officer.

## Thesis

The market values GFL below the largest North American waste companies because its debt is high, much of its growth comes from acquisitions paid partly with new shares, and its IFRS results show net losses after foreign exchange losses, transaction costs and interest. Net leverage was 3.8 times at September 30, 2026, after the SECURE purchase. The founder and the financial sponsors held 45.4% of the votes at the end of 2025, and their share sales add supply: on November 12, 2026, HPS sold in a block trade the 6,219,896 shares that it got when the Series A preferred shares converted. On November 10, 2026, the board ended its review of take-private proposals and chose to stay public, so a takeover premium is not likely soon. The intrinsic value is an AI estimate. For the shares to earn more, three things must be true. Net leverage must fall to the mid 3s by the end of 2026 and lower in 2027. SECURE must give the higher Adjusted EBITDA margin and the Adjusted Free Cash Flow conversion of 40.5% to 42.5% that GFL promised. And Adjusted Free Cash Flow per share must grow, as management expects it to double over five years, with share repurchases that take up the sponsors' sales. The Q4 2026 report with the 2027 guidance, which GFL has not dated yet, is the next test, and the 2027 quarterly reports show whether leverage falls.

## Checkpoints

- Oct 28, 2026: Q3 2026 results: organic growth and guidance. Status: Passed. Watch: Organic growth above 6% and a higher 2026 guidance pass; lower guidance fails. Outcome: Organic growth was 7.4%, and GFL raised its 2026 guidance for the third time.
- Feb 10, 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 results and 2027 guidance. Status: Pending. Watch: 2027 guidance with Adjusted EBITDA above C$3,000 million, Adjusted Free Cash Flow conversion of 40.5% or more and net leverage in the mid 3s passes; leverage at 3.8 times or higher fails.
- Mar 2, 2027: Share repurchases after the review. Status: Pending. Watch: A new normal course issuer bid when the current one ends on March 2, 2027, and share repurchases in 2027 that take up the sponsors' sales, pass; no new bid fails.
- 2027 (estimate): Leverage falls after SECURE. Status: Pending. Watch: Net leverage below 3.5 times by the end of 2027 passes; leverage that stays near 3.8 times or higher fails.

## Valuation

The intrinsic value for GFL Environmental is an AI estimate from November 12, 2026. It is not an analyst's value. An AI research agent calculated it only from GFL's own filings and the Bank of Canada exchange rate. GFL reports in Canadian dollars, and the estimate is in U.S. dollars per NYSE share, which is one subordinate voting share. The estimate uses three methods, and each method has the same weight, as an assumption. The third quarter 2026 release (6-K, October 28, 2026) gives Run-Rate EBITDA of C$2,988.0 million at September 30, 2026, which includes a full year of the businesses bought in 2026. It also gives the 2026 guidance: Adjusted EBITDA of C$2,490 million to C$2,495 million, Adjusted Free Cash Flow of about C$1,020 million, net capital spending of about C$910 million and cash interest of about C$455 million. The SECURE release (6-K, April 13, 2026) expects Adjusted Free Cash Flow conversion of 40.5% to 42.5% of Adjusted EBITDA after the purchase. The board release (6-K, November 10, 2026) says that management expects Adjusted Free Cash Flow per share to double over five years. Adjusted EBITDA for 2027 is an assumption in each case. The low case assumes C$3,000 million, with no growth, because volumes fall or SECURE gives less than planned. The base case assumes C$3,150 million, about 5% growth from price increases and margin gains, with no new acquisitions. The high case assumes C$3,300 million, with margin gains toward the targets of the 2025 investor day and more acquisitions. Method 1 multiplies 2027 Adjusted EBITDA by 11, 13 and 15 times, as assumptions. These multiples are lower than the multiples that the largest waste companies often get, because GFL has more debt, IFRS net losses and more growth from acquisitions. Method 1 gives enterprise values of C$33,000 million, C$40,950 million and C$49,500 million, and $34.52, $46.70 and $59.80 per share. Method 2 multiplies 2027 Adjusted Free Cash Flow per share by 18, 22 and 26 times, as assumptions, which are free cash flow yields of about 5.6%, 4.5% and 3.8%. It assumes a conversion of 39%, 41% and 43% of Adjusted EBITDA, which gives C$1,170 million, C$1,292 million and C$1,419 million, or C$2.54, C$2.81 and C$3.08 per diluted share. Method 2 gives $32.27, $43.53 and $56.53 per share. Method 3 is a discounted cash flow for 2027 to 2031 with a terminal value, discounted from the end of 2026. Its assumptions for the low, base and high cases are Adjusted EBITDA growth after 2027 of 3%, 6% and 8% a year, net capital spending of 36%, 34% and 33% of Adjusted EBITDA, a cash tax of 25% on Adjusted EBITDA less capital spending, closure costs and working capital of 3% of Adjusted EBITDA, a weighted average cost of capital of 8.0%, 7.25% and 6.75%, and growth after 2031 of 2.5%, 3.0% and 3.25% a year. Method 3 gives enterprise values of C$24,969 million, C$38,254 million and C$52,620 million, and $22.21, $42.57 and $64.58 per share. The change from enterprise value to equity value uses the release and the interim financial statements (6-K, October 30, 2026) at September 30, 2026. It subtracts debt of C$11,696.4 million before deferred finance costs, which includes the current part of C$14.2 million, less cash of C$296.5 million. It subtracts lease obligations of C$705.0 million, because Adjusted EBITDA leaves out lease costs, and non-controlling interests of C$176.0 million. It adds the investments in associates of C$1,714.8 million at their carrying value, as an assumption. These are mainly about 34% of GFL Environmental Services, which GFL kept when it sold that business in March 2025, and about 30.1% of Green Infrastructure Partners (2025 financial statements, 40-F, February 18, 2026). It also adds the option to buy back the rest of GFL Environmental Services at its fair value of C$95.0 million. It does not add the renewable natural gas joint ventures, because Adjusted EBITDA already includes their share, and it treats landfill closure costs as operating costs, as assumptions. No preferred shares are subtracted, because the share count includes them as converted. The total change is minus C$10,471.1 million. The share count is about 460.2 million diluted shares. It includes 424,203,668 subordinate voting shares and 11,812,964 multiple voting shares at September 30, 2026 (6-K, October 28, 2026), and 6,219,896 shares issued on November 12, 2026, when the last Series A preferred shares converted (6-K, November 12, 2026). It also includes 9,102,130 shares for the Series B preferred shares as converted at US$43.84, 5,286,731 shares for 22,287,502 options at an average exercise price of US$33.09 by the treasury method at US$43.38, and 3,608,967 RSUs, DSUs and PSUs (6-K, October 30, 2026). It assumes no other change in the shares after September 30, 2026. It uses C$1.4181 per U.S. dollar, the Bank of Canada daily rate for November 10, 2026, as an assumption. The average of the three methods is $29.67 in the low case, $44.27 in the base case and $60.30 in the high case. With weights of 25%, 50% and 25% for these cases, as an assumption, the intrinsic value is $44.63 per share, or C$63.29. The value moves with the Canadian dollar, the 2027 guidance and interest rates. Efficient scale and intangible assets apply. GFL owns landfills, transfer stations and treatment sites that need permits, which are hard to get, and SECURE added 12 landfills and 55 waste treatment facilities (6-K, April 13, 2026). GFL's 2025 annual information form (40-F, February 18, 2026) says that the capital needed to copy its network, its route density and the strict permit rules support its position. But much of GFL's growth comes from acquisitions, goodwill was C$12,583.1 million of total assets of C$29,029.2 million at September 30, 2026, and the net loss from continuing operations was C$409.8 million in the first nine months of 2026, so returns on capital are low. The estimate expects an advantage that lasts 10 years or more, but not 20 years.

As of 2026-11-12.

Sources:

- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1780232/000110465926119630/tm2626649d2_ex99-1.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1780232/000110465926120719/tm2626649d1_ex99-1.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1780232/000110465926125764/tm2629641d1_ex99-1.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1780232/000110465926124759/tm2629428d1_ex99-1.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1780232/000110465926042265/tm2611664d1_ex99-1.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1780232/000110465926016748/gfl-20251231xex99d3.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1780232/000110465926016748/gfl-20251231xex99d1.htm
- https://www.bankofcanada.ca/rates/exchange/daily-exchange-rates/

## Balance sheet

- Cash: CA$297M
- Debt: CA$11.7B
- Net debt: CA$11.4B
- Net debt / EBITDA: 3.8× (medium)
- Undrawn credit line: CA$820M, to April 2030
- Debt due within 12 months: CA$14M

GFL funds itself with U.S. dollar senior notes, a term loan, a revolving credit facility and tax-exempt bonds, and it reports in Canadian dollars. At September 30, 2026, debt before deferred finance costs was C$11,696.4 million and cash was C$296.5 million, so net debt was C$11,399.9 million. The debt includes C$868.0 million on the revolving credit facility, which matures on April 29, 2030, and C$1,418.8 million on the term loan due August 28, 2033. The notes mature from 2028 to 2034. C$14.2 million is due within one year and C$4,001.0 million in 1 to 3 years. Net leverage, which GFL calculates on Run-Rate EBITDA of C$2,988.0 million that includes a full year of the acquired businesses, was 3.8 times, up from 3.4 times at December 31, 2025, because of the SECURE purchase. GFL expects net leverage in the mid 3s by the end of 2026. Lease obligations were C$705.0 million more. Investments accounted for using the equity method were C$1,851.0 million. Cash from operating activities was C$950.1 million in the first nine months of 2026. Total shareholders' equity was C$11,900.2 million. On November 12, 2026, the last Series A preferred shares converted into 6,219,896 subordinate voting shares. The Series B preferred shares convert into 9,102,130 subordinate voting shares at US$43.84, and their liquidation preference grows by 6.000% a year.

As of 2026-09-30.

Sources:

- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1780232/000110465926119630/tm2626649d2_ex99-1.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1780232/000110465926120719/tm2626649d1_ex99-1.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1780232/000110465926120719/tm2626649d1_ex99-2.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1780232/000110465926125764/tm2629641d1_ex99-1.htm

## Dividends

- Dividend yield: 0.1% (last 12 months, at the current price)
- Paid per share, last 12 months: $0.051 (3 payments)
- Current annual rate: $0.068 ($0.017 x 4 a year)
- Latest ex-dividend date: 2026-10-14, $0.017 per share
- Growth from 2020 to 2025: 8.0% a year

Dividends per share by year: 2016: $0.00, 2017: $0.00, 2018: $0.00, 2019: $0.00, 2020: $0.03, 2021: $0.043, 2022: $0.048, 2023: $0.051, 2024: $0.055, 2025: $0.044.

Source: company filings and market data, read on 2026-11-13.

## Recent events

- 2026-11-12: HPS Investment Partners converted the last 4,867,006 Series A preferred shares into 6,219,896 subordinate voting shares, and funds that HPS manages sold these shares in a block trade at US$42.73 per share. No Series A preferred shares remain. HPS funds sold the shares, not GFL.
- 2026-11-10: A special committee of independent directors ended its review of unsolicited proposals to take GFL private. The board decided that the proposals were not in the best interests of the company and that GFL stays a public company. GFL said that it will help parties that want to buy some or all of the shares of its financial sponsors, and that it now has room for opportunistic share repurchases on a recurring basis.
- 2026-10-28: GFL reported Q3 2026 results. Revenue rose 27.2% to C$2,155.3 million, with organic growth of 7.4% and 5.7% from core pricing. Adjusted EBITDA rose 26.8% to C$678.7 million, and the net loss from continuing operations was C$28.0 million. GFL raised its 2026 guidance for the third time, to Adjusted EBITDA of C$2,490 million to C$2,495 million and Adjusted Free Cash Flow of about C$1,020 million.
- 2026-10-01: Allen Gransch, the former President and CEO of SECURE, became Chief Operating Officer. Billy Soffera, the former Chief Operating Officer, became a senior strategic advisor.
- 2026-09-01: GFL closed the purchase of SECURE Waste Infrastructure for total consideration of about C$5,414.1 million. It issued 75,126,306 subordinate voting shares and paid the cash part with its revolving credit facility and a new US$1 billion term loan due in 2033.
- 2026-07-29: GFL reported Q2 2026 results. Revenue rose 16.3% to C$1,947.8 million, and Adjusted EBITDA rose 14.8% to C$591.2 million. GFL said that it had received unsolicited expressions of interest to take the company private, and the board formed a special committee of independent directors.
- 2026-06-23: GFL priced US$750 million of 5.625% senior notes due 2031 to repay its revolving credit facility before the SECURE purchase.
- 2026-04-13: GFL agreed to buy SECURE Waste Infrastructure for C$24.75 per SECURE share, 80% in GFL shares and 20% in cash, an enterprise value of about C$6.4 billion. GFL expects the purchase to increase Adjusted Free Cash Flow per share by 12% to 15% at once.
- 2026-04-02: GFL increased its quarterly dividend by 10% to US$0.0169 per share.
- 2026-04-01: GFL closed the purchase of Frontier Waste Solutions, a solid waste business with 24 sites in Texas. GFL expects Frontier and seven other acquisitions since January to add C$425.0 million to C$450.0 million of annual revenue.
- 2026-02-11: GFL reported 2025 results. Revenue was C$6,615.9 million, Adjusted EBITDA rose 12.8% to C$1,985.0 million, and Adjusted Free Cash Flow was C$755.9 million. GFL bought back 43,741,452 shares in 2025 and ended the year with net leverage of 3.4 times.

## Latest news and filings

- Next earnings: 2027-02-10 (expected; the company has not confirmed it)

| Filed | Form | Headline | Period end | XBRL document | Link |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2026-02-18 | 40-F | Annual report for the period ended Dec 31, 2025 | 2025-12-31 | gfl-20251231x40f | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1780232/000110465926016748/gfl-20251231x40f.htm |
| 2025-02-27 | 40-F | Annual report for the period ended Dec 31, 2024 | 2024-12-31 | gfl-20241231x40f | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1780232/000110465925017743/gfl-20241231x40f.htm |

Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 1780232): https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001780232&type=&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

## Risks

- High: Debt is high. Debt before deferred finance costs was C$11,696.4 million at September 30, 2026, and net leverage was 3.8 times, above the target of the mid 3s. C$4,001.0 million of debt is due in 1 to 3 years, and higher interest rates increase the cost when GFL refinances it.
- Medium: Growth depends on acquisitions. GFL bought 13 businesses in the first nine months of 2026, and goodwill rose to C$12,583.1 million of total assets of C$29,029.2 million. A purchase that gives less than planned can cause an impairment and slow the fall in leverage.
- Medium: The founder and the financial sponsors held 29.8% of the shares and 45.4% of the votes at December 31, 2025, because the multiple voting shares have 10 votes each. Their interests can differ from other shareholders', and their share sales can add supply. GFL said on November 10, 2026 that it will help parties that want to buy the sponsors' shares, and HPS sold 6,219,896 shares in a block trade on November 12, 2026.
- Medium: Most of the debt is in U.S. dollars, and GFL reports in Canadian dollars. The loss on foreign exchange was C$196.7 million in the first nine months of 2026, and the net loss from continuing operations was C$409.8 million. Adjusted results leave out these items.
- Low: Part of GFL's value is in businesses that it does not control. At September 30, 2026, its investments in associates were C$1,714.8 million, mainly about 34% of GFL Environmental Services and about 30.1% of Green Infrastructure Partners. Its share of their net loss was C$54.2 million in the first nine months of 2026, and the fair value of its option to buy back the rest of GFL Environmental Services fell to C$95.0 million from C$140.0 million at December 31, 2025.
- Low: Diesel prices, recycled commodity prices and waste volumes change. Volume lowered organic growth by 0.1% in Q3 2026, and diesel prices lowered the Adjusted EBITDA margin.
- Low: Rules on landfills can increase costs. Canada's final rules to reduce methane emissions from landfills take effect in 2028, and governments push to divert waste from landfills.

## Links

- Page: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/GFL/
- History of changes: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/GFL/history/
- JSON with full history: https://picks.utilarium.app/data/company/GFL.json

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