# Guardant Health (GH) Sector: Cancer diagnostics | Field | Value | |---|---| | Price | $154.86 | | Market cap | $21B | | Intrinsic value source | Analysts | | Data as of | 2026-11-13 | | Next earnings | 2027-02-18 (estimate) | Analysts: Very bullish Picks: Research only Discount category: Far above intrinsic value ## In short Investors pay a premium for the fast Shield and oncology growth of Guardant Health, and only wider payer coverage with a clear path to positive cash flow through 2027 can earn this price. ## Themes and gap - Themes: Regulation and courts (regulation-legal) - Gap type: Slow (slow) - Why: Shield volume, payer coverage and the path to positive free cash flow show only over several years whether cancer screening becomes profitable. ## About Guardant Health, Inc. (Guardant Health) is based in Palo Alto, California. It sells blood and tissue tests for cancer. Guardant360 tests help doctors choose a treatment for advanced cancer, and Guardant Reveal finds cancer that remains or comes back after treatment. The Shield blood test screens adults age 45 and older at average risk for colorectal cancer. Guardant Health also sells tests, data and services to biopharma companies. Revenue was $361.0 million in Q3 2026: Oncology $231.3 million, Screening $67.6 million and Biopharma and Data $59.0 million. The company has a net loss. The common stock trades on Nasdaq in US dollars. Guardant Health files 10-K and 10-Q reports. ## Thesis The price of Guardant Health depends on how large and how profitable the Shield screening test becomes. Revenue grew 36% in Q3 2026, and Shield volume grew to 83,000 tests from 24,000. But the net loss was $124.4 million in Q3, and the company expects free cash flow burn of $205 million to $220 million in 2026, while its sales and marketing costs grow. Much of the value depends on profits that come after 2028. For the price to hold or rise, four things must be true. Shield volume must keep growing as more commercial payers add coverage, after UnitedHealth Group in August 2026. The new lower-cost Shield workflow must lift the gross margin. Oncology volume must keep growing fast, with new FDA approvals as a companion diagnostic. Operating costs must grow slower than revenue, so that the company reaches positive free cash flow. The Q4 2026 report, expected in late February 2027, and the 2027 guidance are the next tests. ## Checkpoints - Dec 2026 (estimate): Guardant Reveal Ultra clinical launch. Status: Pending. Watch: Guardant Reveal Ultra launches for clinical use by the end of 2026, as the company expects, and this passes; no launch in 2026 fails. - Feb 18, 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 results and 2027 guidance. Status: Pending. Watch: 2026 revenue is in the guided range of $1.36 billion to $1.37 billion and free cash flow burn is $220 million or less, and this passes; a miss on either fails. ## Balance sheet - Cash: $1.0B - Debt: $1.5B - Net debt: $466M - Last debt due: 2033 At September 30, 2026, Guardant Health had cash and cash equivalents of $1,026.8 million and restricted cash of $119.2 million. It had no short-term marketable securities, against $823.4 million at December 31, 2025. Convertible senior notes had principal of $1,493.2 million: $490.7 million of 0% notes due 2027, $600.0 million of 1.25% notes due 2031 and $402.5 million of 0% notes due 2033. Their net carrying amount was $1,502.4 million. The 2031 and 2033 notes can be converted from October 1 to December 31, 2026, and the company can settle in cash, shares or both. Operating lease liabilities were $189.0 million. Free cash flow was minus $177.9 million for nine months. The stockholders' deficit was $275.9 million. As of 2026-09-30. Sources: - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1576280/000157628026000044/gh-20260930.htm - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1576280/000157628026000043/gh-09302026xexhibit991.htm ## Dividends Guardant Health does not pay a dividend. Source: company filings and market data, read on 2026-11-12. ## Recent events - 2026-11-05: Guardant Health reported Q3 2026 results. Revenue rose 36% to $361.0 million, Oncology volume rose 58% to 117,000 tests and Shield volume rose to 83,000 tests. It raised 2026 revenue guidance to $1.36 billion to $1.37 billion and Shield volume to 285,000 to 290,000 tests. It now expects free cash flow burn of $205 million to $220 million, up from $195 million to $205 million. - 2026-11-02: The board gave each of the two co-CEOs, Helmy Eltoukhy and AmirAli Talasaz, 465,413 performance stock units at target. They vest only if the total shareholder return beats S&P 500 companies over three and five years, and at most 250% of target can vest. - 2026-11-02: The board appointed Kevin R. Sayer, the Executive Chairman of Dexcom, as a director. - 2026-08-01: UnitedHealth Group started to cover the Shield blood test for eligible members, the first major commercial insurer to cover adults age 45 or older at average risk of colorectal cancer. - 2026-04-27: Guardant Health said that Craig Eagle, M.D., its Chief Medical Officer, would resign effective May 8, 2026. ## Latest news and filings - Last earnings: 2026-11-05 (8-K: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1576280/000157628026000043/) - Next earnings: 2027-02-18 (expected; the company has not confirmed it) | Filed | Form | Headline | Period end | XBRL document | Link | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026-11-05 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Sep 30, 2026 | 2026-09-30 | gh-20260930 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1576280/000157628026000044/gh-20260930.htm | | 2026-11-05 | 8-K | Earnings release | | gh-20261105 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1576280/000157628026000043/ | | 2026-11-03 | 8-K | Change of directors or officers | | | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1576280/000119312526445514/d173393d8k.htm | | 2026-11-03 | 8-K | Change of directors or officers | | | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1576280/000119312526444416/d457424d8k.htm | | 2026-07-30 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Jun 30, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | gh-20260630 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1576280/000157628026000037/gh-20260630.htm | | 2026-07-30 | 8-K | Earnings release | | gh-20260730 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1576280/000157628026000036/ | | 2026-06-18 | 8-K | Shareholder vote results | | | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1576280/000119312526275864/d166199d8k.htm | | 2026-05-07 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Mar 31, 2026 | 2026-03-31 | gh-20260331 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1576280/000157628026000026/gh-20260331.htm | | 2026-05-07 | 8-K | Earnings release | | gh-20260507 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1576280/000157628026000024/ | | 2026-04-27 | 8-K | Change of directors or officers | | | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1576280/000119312526182391/d122370d8k.htm | Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 1576280): https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001576280&type=&dateb=&owner=include&count=40 ## Risks - High: The company loses money. The net loss was $356.6 million and free cash flow was minus $177.9 million for nine months of 2026. If growth slows, it may need more capital. - High: Revenue depends on payers. Medicare covers Shield once every three years for eligible people, and commercial payers decide their own coverage and payment. Lower payment or less coverage would cut revenue. - Medium: Competition is strong. Other companies sell or develop blood and stool tests for colorectal cancer screening and tests for treatment choice and recurrence. - Medium: Shareholders can be diluted. The convertible notes can convert into about 16.5 million shares, and the 2031 and 2033 notes can be converted from October 1 to December 31, 2026. New stock awards add more shares. - Medium: Patent cases are open. The company recorded a liability of $83.4 million for a jury verdict for TwinStrand Biosciences and the University of Washington and is contesting it. ## Links - Page: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/GH/ - History of changes: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/GH/history/ - JSON with full history: https://picks.utilarium.app/data/company/GH.json > Picks is a personal record of stock picks. It gives general opinions about stocks, including a "Top pick" label. They are not tailored to your needs, goals or risk tolerance. Kevin is not a registered adviser and relies on the general-advice exemption in Canadian securities law (NI 31-103 s.8.25). Do your own research, or ask a registered adviser. Kevin may hold any stock on this site. Prices, intrinsic values and ratings can be delayed or wrong; check the original source. Full disclaimer: /disclaimer/.