# Gilead Sciences (GILD) Sector: Biotechnology | Field | Value | |---|---| | Price | $169.32 | | Market cap | $210B | | Intrinsic value source | Analysts | | Data as of | 2026-11-10 | | Next earnings | 2027-02-10 (estimate) | Analysts: Bullish Picks: Research only Discount category: Far above intrinsic value ## In short Investors pay a premium for Gilead's growing HIV business, and fast growth of Yeztugo and Descovy with good new launches before the Biktarvy Medicare price in 2028 can earn it. ## Themes and gap - Themes: Regulation and courts (regulation-legal), High debt (leverage) - Gap type: Can close (closable) - Why: The FDA decision on anito-cel on December 23, 2026 and the 2027 guidance in February 2027 test within a few months whether new growth can earn the premium. ## About Gilead Sciences develops and sells medicines for HIV, liver diseases, cancer and inflammation. HIV gave about 75% of product sales in Q3 2026. Its main HIV medicines are Biktarvy for treatment, Descovy for prevention and Yeztugo, a lenacapavir injection that people take twice a year to prevent HIV. Its cancer medicines include Trodelvy and the cell therapies Yescarta and Tecartus. In 2026, Gilead bought Arcellx, Tubulis and Ouro Medicines to add medicines for multiple myeloma, solid tumors and autoimmune diseases. Total revenues were $29.4 billion in 2025. The company is based in Foster City, California. ## Thesis Gilead trades at a premium because investors pay for a growing HIV business with long patent protection. HIV sales rose 18% to $6.25 billion in Q3 2026. Descovy for prevention grew 49%, and Yeztugo, the twice-yearly prevention injection, reached $305 million in the quarter. Gilead raised its 2026 product sales guidance to $31.0 billion to $31.3 billion. Investors also pay for new growth from the $11.3 billion that Gilead spent on acquisitions in the first nine months of 2026, mainly Arcellx, Tubulis and Ouro Medicines. For the premium to be earned, four things must be true. Yeztugo and Descovy must grow fast enough to replace the Biktarvy revenue that Gilead loses when the Medicare maximum fair price starts on January 1, 2028. The FDA must approve anito-cel for multiple myeloma by its target date of December 23, 2026, and the launch must sell well. The FDA must approve once-weekly oral Yeztugo by its target date of February 2, 2027. Earnings must return to their earlier level in 2027 without new large charges for purchased research, and debt must fall. The anito-cel decision in December 2026 and the Q4 2026 report with 2027 guidance in February 2027 are the next tests. The premium can shrink if the Medicare price cuts Biktarvy sales more than expected, if a launch is slow, or if Gilead makes more large purchases. ## Checkpoints - Dec 23, 2026: FDA decision on anito-cel in multiple myeloma. Status: Pending. Watch: FDA approval of anito-cel for relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma passes; a rejection or a delay fails. - Feb 2, 2027: FDA decision on once-weekly oral Yeztugo. Status: Pending. Watch: FDA approval of once-weekly oral Yeztugo for HIV prevention passes; a rejection or a delay fails. - Feb 10, 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 results and 2027 guidance. Status: Pending. Watch: 2027 guidance for product sales growth and non-GAAP EPS above the 2025 level of $8.15 pass; guidance for lower EPS or slow Yeztugo growth fails. ## Balance sheet - Cash: $6.4B - Debt: $26.2B - Net debt: $19.8B - Debt due within 12 months: $2.4B Gilead funds itself with senior unsecured notes and a term loan. At September 30, 2026, debt had a carrying value of $26.23 billion, of which $2.42 billion is due within one year. Cash and cash equivalents were $6.44 billion, against $10.61 billion at December 31, 2025, because Gilead paid $11.34 billion for acquisitions in the first nine months of 2026. In 2026, Gilead repaid $2.8 billion of debt and raised $4.1 billion of new debt: $3.0 billion of notes in May 2026 and a one-year term loan of $1.1 billion. Operating cash flow was $5.04 billion in Q3 2026. In the quarter, Gilead paid $1.0 billion of dividends and bought back $370 million of shares. The quarterly dividend is $0.82 per share. There were 1,240,338,614 shares outstanding on October 23, 2026. As of 2026-09-30. Sources: - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/882095/000088209526000039/gild-20260930.htm - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/882095/000088209526000037/exhibit991earningspressrel.htm - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/882095/000088209526000028/exhibit991earningspressrel.htm - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/882095/000110465926064518/tm2615045d1_8k.htm ## Dividends - Dividend yield: 1.9% (last 12 months, at the current price) - Paid per share, last 12 months: $3.25 (4 payments) - Current annual rate: $3.28 ($0.82 x 4 a year) - Payout ratio: 47% of the earnings of the last fiscal year (the year ended 2025-12-31) - Latest ex-dividend date: 2026-09-15, $0.82 per share - Growth over the last 5 years: 3.0% a year - Growth over the last 10 years: 6.1% a year Dividends per share by year: 2016: $1.84, 2017: $2.08, 2018: $2.28, 2019: $2.52, 2020: $2.72, 2021: $2.84, 2022: $2.92, 2023: $3.00, 2024: $3.08, 2025: $3.16. Source: company filings and market data, read on 2026-11-09. ## Recent events - 2026-10-29: Gilead reported Q3 2026 results. Total revenues rose 7% to $8.30 billion, and product sales excluding Veklury rose 16%. HIV sales rose 18% to $6.25 billion, with Biktarvy up 10% to $4.06 billion, Descovy up 49% to $1.05 billion and Yeztugo at $305 million. Trodelvy grew 42%, and cell therapy fell 18%. GAAP EPS was $1.94 and non-GAAP EPS was $2.55. Gilead raised its 2026 product sales guidance to $31.0 billion to $31.3 billion. It agreed to buy the oral IL-23R program of PepStar, and it said that CMS completed the price setting for Biktarvy, with a maximum fair price from January 1, 2028. - 2026-08-27: The FDA approved Bixlenvo, a once-daily tablet of bictegravir and lenacapavir, for adults with HIV whose virus is suppressed on a stable regimen. - 2026-08-04: Gilead reported Q2 2026 results. Total revenues rose 10% to $7.80 billion, and HIV sales rose 12% to $5.69 billion. The GAAP loss was $8.45 per share because of acquired research charges of $11.18 billion for Arcellx, Tubulis and Ouro Medicines. The FDA accepted the filing for once-weekly oral Yeztugo for HIV prevention, with a target date of February 2, 2027. A Phase 3 study of Trodelvy with Keytruda in first-line lung cancer, EVOKE-03, was stopped on the advice of its data monitoring committee. - 2026-05-20: Gilead sold $3.0 billion of senior unsecured notes due 2028, 2029, 2031 and 2034, with interest rates of 4.250% to 4.900%. - 2026-05-07: Gilead reported Q1 2026 results. Total revenues rose 4% to $6.96 billion, and Yeztugo sales were $166 million. It cut its 2026 non-GAAP EPS guidance to -$1.05 to -$0.65, from $8.45 to $8.85, because of expected acquired research charges of $11.5 billion. The FDA set a target date of December 23, 2026 for anito-cel in relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma. - 2026-04-28: Gilead completed its purchase of Arcellx for $115.00 per share in cash plus a contingent value right of $5.00 per share, which pays only if anito-cel sales pass $6.0 billion by the end of 2029. It used about $7.1 billion to complete the deal. - 2026-04-07: Gilead agreed to buy Tubulis, a German company that develops antibody-drug conjugates for cancer, for $3.15 billion in cash at closing and up to $1.85 billion more in milestone payments. The deal closed in Q2 2026. - 2026-02-10: Gilead reported 2025 results. Total revenues rose 2% to $29.44 billion, HIV sales rose 6% to $20.75 billion and non-GAAP EPS was $8.15. Its first 2026 guidance was product sales of $29.6 billion to $30.0 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $8.45 to $8.85. ## Latest news and filings - Last earnings: 2026-10-29 (8-K: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/882095/000088209526000037/) - Next earnings: 2027-02-10 (expected; the company has not confirmed it) | Filed | Form | Headline | Period end | XBRL document | Link | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026-10-30 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Sep 30, 2026 | 2026-09-30 | gild-20260930 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/882095/000088209526000039/gild-20260930.htm | | 2026-10-29 | 8-K | Earnings release | | gild-20261029 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/882095/000088209526000037/gild-20261029.htm | | 2026-08-06 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Jun 30, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | gild-20260630 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/882095/000088209526000031/gild-20260630.htm | | 2026-08-04 | 8-K | Earnings release | | gild-20260804 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/882095/000088209526000028/gild-20260804.htm | | 2026-05-20 | 8-K | New material agreement and New debt or financial obligation | | | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/882095/000110465926064518/tm2615045d1_8k.htm | | 2026-05-07 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Mar 31, 2026 | 2026-03-31 | gild-20260331 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/882095/000088209526000024/gild-20260331.htm | | 2026-05-07 | 8-K | Earnings release | | gild-20260507 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/882095/000088209526000022/gild-20260507.htm | | 2026-05-04 | 8-K | Shareholder vote results | | gild-20260430 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/882095/000088209526000008/gild-20260430.htm | | 2026-04-28 | 8-K | Investor disclosure and Other company news | | | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/882095/000110465926049874/tm2612748d1_8k.htm | | 2026-02-24 | 10-K | Annual report for the period ended Dec 31, 2025 | 2025-12-31 | gild-20251231 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/882095/000088209526000006/gild-20251231.htm | Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 882095): https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000882095&type=&dateb=&owner=include&count=40 ## Risks - High: Biktarvy gave $4.06 billion of sales in Q3 2026, about half of product sales. Its Medicare maximum fair price starts on January 1, 2028, and generic competition follows later. Growth of newer HIV medicines must replace this revenue. - Medium: Gilead spent $11.3 billion on acquisitions in the first nine months of 2026, mostly for medicines that are not yet approved. If anito-cel or the other purchased medicines fail or sell slowly, this money is lost. - Medium: Debt had a carrying value of $26.2 billion at September 30, 2026, and cash fell to $6.4 billion from $10.6 billion at the end of 2025. More large purchases can delay a reduction of debt. - Medium: Yeztugo growth depends on insurance coverage and on how many people at risk start prevention. A slow uptake lowers the main source of new HIV growth. - Low: Cell therapy sales fell 18% in Q3 2026, and a Phase 3 study of Trodelvy in lung cancer was stopped in 2026. The cancer business adds less growth than HIV. ## Links - Page: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/GILD/ - History of changes: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/GILD/history/ - JSON with full history: https://picks.utilarium.app/data/company/GILD.json > Picks is a personal record of stock picks. It gives general opinions about stocks, including a "Top pick" label. They are not tailored to your needs, goals or risk tolerance. Kevin is not a registered adviser and relies on the general-advice exemption in Canadian securities law (NI 31-103 s.8.25). Do your own research, or ask a registered adviser. Kevin may hold any stock on this site. Prices, intrinsic values and ratings can be delayed or wrong; check the original source. Full disclaimer: /disclaimer/.