# Hoya Corporation (HOCPY) Sector: Eye care and medical devices | Field | Value | |---|---| | Price | $147.08 | | Market cap | $49B | | Intrinsic value source | AI estimate | | Data as of | 2026-11-11 | | Next earnings | 2027-01-29 (estimate) | Analysts: Very bullish Picks: Top pick Discount category: Well below intrinsic value ## In short The market prices Hoya below the AI estimate on doubts that its EUV blank and HDD glass growth can last while its endoscopes and United States lenses are weak, and chip-related growth with repurchases can lift its value. ## Themes and gap - Themes: AI supplier (ai-supplier), China and geopolitics (china-geopolitics) - Gap type: Can close (closable) - Why: The results for the quarter to December 2026 in late January 2027, the end of the share repurchase in March 2027 and the endoscope review show whether growth and capital returns hold. ## About Hoya Corporation (Hoya) is a Japanese maker of eye care, medical and optical glass products. Its Life Care business sells eyeglass lenses, such as MiYOSMART lenses that slow myopia in children, contact lenses through its eyecity stores in Japan, PENTAX Medical endoscopes, intraocular lenses for cataract surgery and other medical devices. Its Information Technology business sells EUV mask blanks and photomasks for semiconductors and displays, glass substrates for hard disk drives (HDD) and optical glass. Revenue was ¥947.7 billion in the fiscal year to March 2026 and ¥260.2 billion in the quarter to September 2026. The shares trade on the Tokyo Stock Exchange (7741). American depositary receipts trade over the counter as HOCPY. One ADR represents one share, and Deutsche Bank is the depositary. The head office is in Tokyo. Eiichiro Ikeda is President and Chief Executive Officer. ## Thesis The market prices Hoya below the AI estimate, as two businesses: a steady but slow Life Care business and a fast-growing Information Technology business that depends on chip and data center spending. In the quarter to September 2026, Information Technology revenue rose 23% with an operating margin of 55.1%, and it gave about 64% of segment profit. Investors doubt that demand for EUV mask blanks and HDD glass substrates can stay this strong, and they see weak endoscope sales and a weak U.S. eyeglass lens business. For the shares to earn more, three things must be true. EUV blank and HDD substrate sales must keep growing as new capacity starts. Life Care must keep its margin near 20% while MiYOSMART grows. And Hoya must use its excess cash well, through the ¥200 billion share repurchase and the strategic review of the endoscope business. The report for the quarter to December 2026, expected in late January 2027, and the results for the fiscal year to March 2027, expected in late April 2027, are the next tests. ## Checkpoints - Oct 30, 2026: Results for the quarter to September 2026. Status: Passed. Watch: Revenue and profit growth with a Life Care margin near 20% pass; lower profit fails. Outcome: Profit from ordinary operating activities rose 27.2%, and the Life Care margin was 21.2%. - Jan 29, 2027 (estimate): Results for the quarter to December 2026. Status: Pending. Watch: More growth in EUV blanks and HDD substrates with a stable Life Care margin passes; lower Information Technology revenue fails. - Mar 2027 (estimate): End of the ¥200 billion share repurchase and the endoscope review. Status: Pending. Watch: A completed repurchase and a clear decision on the endoscope business pass; no decision or a large loss on the business fails. ## Valuation The intrinsic value for Hoya Corporation is an AI estimate from November 11, 2026. It is not an analyst's value. An AI research agent calculated it from Hoya's own reports. The values are per American depositary receipt (ADR) in U.S. dollars. The depositary receipt page of Deutsche Bank, the depositary, gives a ratio of 1 ADR to 1 ordinary share for HOCPY. The company reports in yen under IFRS and gives no full-year forecast. The method is a multiple of earnings per share for the fiscal year to March 2028, plus excess cash. The quarterly report for the three months ended September 30, 2026 (October 30, 2026) gives revenue of ¥260.2 billion, profit from ordinary operating activities of ¥89.4 billion, profit attributable to owners of the Company of ¥70.7 billion, basic EPS of ¥211.85 for the quarter and ¥408.44 for the six months, cash and cash equivalents of ¥561.9 billion, interest-bearing debt of ¥42.2 billion and equity of ¥3,045.82 per share. The quarterly report for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026 (April 30, 2026) gives revenue of ¥947.7 billion and basic EPS of ¥743.93. The results presentation of April 30, 2026 says that net cash was about ¥110 billion above the optimal level of Hoya. The repurchase notice of November 2, 2026 gives repurchases of 2,983,300 shares for ¥75.0 billion under a plan of up to ¥200 billion. EPS includes interest income, so the estimate adds only the excess cash of ¥110 billion, or about ¥331 per share on 332.5 million shares. It uses an exchange rate of ¥157.98 per U.S. dollar, the market rate on November 10, 2026, as an assumption. The EPS for the fiscal year to March 2028 and the multiples are assumptions. The low case assumes slower demand for EUV mask blanks and HDD glass substrates and a stronger yen, with EPS of ¥850, at 28 times. It gives ¥24,131, or $152.75 per ADR. The base case assumes EPS of ¥930, at 33 times. It gives ¥31,021, or $196.36 per ADR. The high case assumes fast growth in Information Technology and in MiYOSMART lenses, with EPS of ¥1,000, at 38 times. It gives ¥38,331, or $242.63 per ADR. The estimate assumes weights of 25%, 50% and 25%. The weighted intrinsic value is $197.03 per ADR. The value moves with the yen. Intangible assets and cost advantage are the main sources of the advantage. Few companies make EUV mask blanks and glass HDD substrates at the quality that customers need, and the Information Technology operating margin was 55.1% in the quarter to September 2026. Its eyeglass lens brands and MiYOSMART also hold strong positions. But endoscopes and intraocular lenses face strong rivals, and chip technology can change. The estimate expects the advantage to last 10 years or more, but not 20 years. As of 2026-11-11. Sources: - https://ssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/7741/tdnet/2901246/00.pdf - https://ssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/7741/tdnet/2797234/00.pdf - https://ssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/7741/tdnet/2797232/00.pdf - https://ssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/7741/tdnet/2903111/00.pdf - https://adr.db.com/drwebrebrand/dr-universe/dr_details.html?identifier=3626 ## Balance sheet - Cash: ¥561.9B - Debt: ¥42.2B - Net cash: ¥519.7B Hoya has much more cash than debt. At September 30, 2026, cash and cash equivalents were ¥561.9 billion. Interest-bearing debt was ¥42.2 billion: ¥31.5 billion long-term and ¥10.7 billion short-term. Equity attributable to owners of the Company was ¥1,012.9 billion, 77.8% of total assets. Hoya estimated that its net cash at the end of March 2026 was about ¥110 billion above its optimal level, and it plans to return the excess through share repurchases over about three years. Net cash from operating activities was ¥88.2 billion in the quarter to September 2026. Hoya pays a progressive dividend with a payout ratio of 40%, and the interim dividend for the year to March 2027 is ¥160 per share. At July 31, 2026, there were 334,520,495 shares outside treasury, before the repurchases under the plan of that date. As of 2026-09-30. Sources: - https://ssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/7741/tdnet/2901246/00.pdf - https://ssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/7741/tdnet/2797232/00.pdf - https://ssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/7741/tdnet/2859047/00.pdf ## Dividends - The dividend data after 2025-03-31 is missing. - Latest ex-dividend date: 2025-03-31, $0.805 per share Dividends per share by year: 2016: $0.00, 2017: $0.00, 2018: $0.00, 2019: $0.00, 2020: $0.00, 2021: $0.00, 2022: $0.00, 2023: $0.00, 2024: $0.298, 2025: $0.805. Source: company filings and market data, read on 2026-11-13. ## Recent events - 2026-11-02: Hoya said that it repurchased 985,400 shares for ¥25.0 billion in October 2026. Under the plan of July 31, 2026, it repurchased 2,983,300 shares for ¥75.0 billion to October 31, 2026. - 2026-10-30: Hoya reported results for the quarter to September 30, 2026. Revenue rose 10.9% to ¥260.2 billion, profit from ordinary operating activities rose 27.2% to ¥89.4 billion, and profit attributable to owners of the Company rose 27.6% to ¥70.7 billion, or ¥211.85 per share. Hoya set an interim dividend of ¥160 per share, up from ¥125. - 2026-10-09: Hoya agreed to sell all of its shares in Medical Instrument Development Laboratories (MID Labs), a maker of vitreoretinal surgical instruments, to Bausch + Lomb. - 2026-07-31: Hoya started a review of strategic options for its PENTAX Medical endoscope business, including a possible transfer to a third party. It has not decided an option. - 2026-07-31: Hoya announced a share repurchase of up to 10 million shares, or ¥200 billion, from August 3, 2026 to March 24, 2027. It plans to cancel the repurchased shares. ## Risks - Medium: Information Technology gives most of the profit growth. Its sales depend on spending on advanced chips, EUV lithography, data center hard disk drives and displays, which moves in cycles. - Medium: Endoscope sales fell 10% in the quarter to September 2026, because China favors local products and competition in the United States is strong. The strategic review can lead to a sale or to charges. - Medium: Eyeglass lens sales in the United States fell during a restructuring, and Hoya must rebuild its sales, production and service there. - Medium: Most revenue is earned outside Japan. A stronger yen lowers reported revenue and profit, and the weak yen added about 5 points to revenue growth in the quarter to September 2026. - Low: Hoya makes many products in Thailand, Laos, Singapore and other countries in Asia. Disasters, trade rules or tariffs there can disrupt supply. ## Links - Page: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/HOCPY/ - History of changes: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/HOCPY/history/ - JSON with full history: https://picks.utilarium.app/data/company/HOCPY.json > Picks is a personal record of stock picks. It gives general opinions about stocks, including a "Top pick" label. They are not tailored to your needs, goals or risk tolerance. Kevin is not a registered adviser and relies on the general-advice exemption in Canadian securities law (NI 31-103 s.8.25). Do your own research, or ask a registered adviser. Kevin may hold any stock on this site. Prices, intrinsic values and ratings can be delayed or wrong; check the original source. Full disclaimer: /disclaimer/.