# ING Groep (ING)

Sector: Banks

| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Price | $33.20 |
| Intrinsic value source | Analysts |
| Data as of | 2026-11-10 |
| Next earnings | 2027-01-28 (confirmed) |

Analysts: Leaning bullish

Picks: Research only

Discount category: Close to intrinsic value

## In short

The market doubts that ING can keep high returns as interest rates and markets change, and income and capital return on its 2027 outlook can close the gap.

## Themes and gap

- Themes: Interest rates (interest-rates)
- Gap type: Can close (closable)
- Why: The Q4 2026 results on January 28, 2027 and the Capital Markets Day on June 14, 2027 show whether income, risk costs and capital return stay on the outlook.

## About

ING Groep is a Dutch bank holding company. Through ING Bank, it offers retail banking to individuals and small businesses in the Netherlands, Belgium, Germany and other countries, and wholesale banking to large companies and institutions in over 100 countries. Its retail business is mostly digital, and it grows through new mobile primary customers. At September 30, 2026, it had customer deposits of €779.7 billion and customer lending of €769.7 billion. Its shares trade in Amsterdam and Brussels, and its American depositary shares trade on the NYSE. Each ADS represents one ordinary share. ING reports in euros.

## Thesis

The market doubts that ING can keep high returns as interest rates and markets change. In Q3 2026, other income fell 37.4% year on year, because interest rate volatility weighed on derivative valuations and hedges. Risk costs rose to 21 basis points of average customer lending, including a management overlay of €111 million for project finance. But commercial net interest income rose 13.4%, fee income rose 9.3% and the return on tangible equity was 16.3%. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Total income must exceed the 2026 outlook of €24.5 billion and grow toward the 2027 outlook of more than €26 billion. Risk costs must stay near the through-the-cycle average of 20 basis points. The CET1 ratio must stay near the target of about 13%, so that ING can keep returning capital, such as the €1.9 billion distribution of October 2026. The Q4 2026 results on January 28, 2027 and the Capital Markets Day on June 14, 2027 give the next tests. If they pass, the gap can close within about a year.

## Checkpoints

- Oct 29, 2026: Q3 2026 results. Status: Passed. Watch: A return on tangible equity above 15%, higher commercial net interest income and a CET1 ratio near 13% with a new distribution pass; a lower outlook or no distribution fail. Outcome: The return on tangible equity was 16.3%, commercial net interest income rose 13.4%, the CET1 ratio was 13.3% and ING announced a €1.9 billion distribution.
- Jan 28, 2027: Q4 2026 results. Status: Pending. Watch: Total income above €24.5 billion for 2026, risk costs near 20 basis points and a new distribution pass; lower income, higher risk costs or a smaller distribution fail.
- Jun 14, 2027: Capital Markets Day: new targets. Status: Pending. Watch: New targets with a return on tangible equity above 16% and steady capital return pass; lower return targets fail.

## Balance sheet

At September 30, 2026, ING Group had total assets of €1,181.4 billion. Customer deposits were €779.7 billion and customer lending was €769.7 billion, so loans were about 99% of deposits (a calculation from the release figures). The CET1 ratio was 13.3%, above the requirement of 11.10%, the Tier 1 ratio was 15.6% and the leverage ratio was 4.1%. The 12-month average liquidity coverage ratio was 136%. Debt securities in issue were €176.9 billion, and subordinated loans were €18.7 billion. Shareholders' equity was €49,980 million, or €17.58 per share. On October 28, 2026, S&P rated ING Groep A- and Fitch rated it A+, both with a stable outlook. S&P rated ING Bank A+, Moody's A2 and Fitch AA.

As of 2026-09-30.

Sources:

- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1039765/000117184326006947/exh_991.htm
- https://ml-eu.globenewswire.com/Resource/Download/3b99cd92-11a7-4bed-9610-3c602963f31a
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1039765/000117184326006948/exh_991.htm

## Dividends

- Dividend yield: 4.0% (last 12 months, at the current price)
- Paid per share, last 12 months: $1.338 (2 payments)
- Current annual rate: $0.916 ($0.458 x 2 a year)
- Latest ex-dividend date: 2026-08-10, $0.458 per share
- Growth over the last 5 years: 13.6% a year
- Growth over the last 10 years: 6.1% a year

Dividends per share by year: 2016: $0.739, 2017: $0.736, 2018: $0.814, 2019: $0.763, 2020: $0.00, 2021: $0.708, 2022: $0.872, 2023: $0.88, 2024: $1.199, 2025: $0.967.

Source: company filings and market data, read on 2026-11-09.

## Recent events

- 2026-10-29: ING reported Q3 2026 results. The net result rose 3.5% to €1,850 million, and the return on tangible equity was 16.3%. Commercial net interest income rose 13.4% to €4,335 million, and fee income rose 9.3% to €1,273 million. The CET1 ratio was 13.3%. ING confirmed its 2026 and 2027 outlook. It will refocus Wholesale Banking and rename it Corporate and Institutional Banking, with about 400 redundancies, a pre-tax provision of about €175 million in Q4 2026 and cost savings of about €75 million a year from 2028.
- 2026-10-29: ING announced a distribution of up to €1.9 billion: a share buyback of up to €1.65 billion, which ends no later than April 26, 2027, and a cash payment of €0.25 billion on January 14, 2027. The ECB approved the distribution.
- 2026-10-23: ING completed the €1.0 billion share buyback that it announced on April 30, 2026. It bought back almost 35 million ordinary shares.
- 2026-07-30: ING reported Q2 2026 results. The net result was €1,947 million, and the return on tangible equity was 17.0%. Fee income rose 14% year on year. ING raised its 2026 and 2027 outlook for fees and total income and declared an interim cash dividend of €0.40 per share. It also announced a strategic investment in the Spanish wealth manager Singular Bank, which it expects to close in Q1 2027.
- 2026-04-30: ING reported Q1 2026 results and announced an additional shareholder distribution of €1.0 billion through a share buyback.

## Latest news and filings

- Next earnings: 2027-01-28 (confirmed by the company)

| Filed | Form | Headline | Period end | XBRL document | Link |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2026-07-30 | 6-K | Interim report for the period ended Jun 30, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | ing-20260630 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1039765/000162828026050785/ing-20260630.htm |
| 2026-02-26 | 20-F | Annual report for the period ended Dec 31, 2025 | 2025-12-31 | ing-20251231 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1039765/000162828026011979/ing-20251231.htm |
| 2025-07-31 | 6-K | Interim report for the period ended Jun 30, 2025 | 2025-06-30 | ing-20250630 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1039765/000162828025036812/ing-20250630.htm |
| 2025-03-06 | 20-F | Annual report for the period ended Dec 31, 2024 | 2024-12-31 | ing-20241231 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1039765/000162828025010764/ing-20241231.htm |

Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 1039765): https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001039765&type=&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

## Risks

- Medium: Lower interest rates can reduce the margin that ING earns on deposits. Interest rate volatility also lowered other income by 37.4% year on year in Q3 2026.
- Medium: Credit losses can rise. Wholesale Banking risk costs were 39 basis points of average customer lending in Q3 2026, including a €111 million overlay for project finance, and consumer lending provisions grew.
- Medium: Regulators can limit distributions. ING needs ECB approval for buybacks, and its CET1 ratio of 13.3% must stay above the requirement of 11.10% with a buffer.
- Low: ING intends to exit Russia, and its outlook excludes the effect of that exit. Higher bank taxes, such as the higher corporate income tax for banks in Poland from January 1, 2026, raised its effective tax rate to 29.2% in Q3 2026.
- Low: ING reports in euros, and the ADS trades in U.S. dollars. A weaker euro lowers the value of the ADS and its dividends in U.S. dollars.

## Links

- Page: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/ING/
- History of changes: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/ING/history/
- JSON with full history: https://picks.utilarium.app/data/company/ING.json

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