# International Paper (IP) Sector: Containerboard and corrugated packaging | Field | Value | |---|---| | Price | $33.94 | | Market cap | $18B | | Intrinsic value source | Analysts | | Data as of | 2026-11-13 | | Next earnings | 2027-01-28 (estimate) | Analysts: Bullish Picks: Top pick Discount category: Below intrinsic value ## In short The market doubts the soft box demand and the loss-making EMEA business of International Paper, and higher North American margins with a clean EMEA separation through 2028 can lift its value. ## Themes and gap - Themes: Weak consumer (weak-consumer), High debt (leverage) - Gap type: Slow (slow) - Why: The North American margin gains and the EMEA separation take several years, and the Q4 2026 report, expected in late January 2027, is only the first test. ## About International Paper Company (International Paper) is based in Memphis, Tennessee. It makes containerboard and corrugated boxes in North America and in Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA). It bought DS Smith, a UK packaging company, on January 31, 2025, and its shares also have a secondary listing on the London Stock Exchange. It sold its Global Cellulose Fibers business on January 23, 2026 and bought the NORPAC mill in Longview, Washington on June 4, 2026. Net sales were $6,197 million in Q3 2026: $3,880 million from Packaging Solutions North America and $2,280 million from Packaging Solutions EMEA. The common stock trades on the NYSE in US dollars. International Paper files 10-K and 10-Q reports. ## Thesis The price of International Paper depends on whether its North American box business can reach higher margins while the EMEA business from DS Smith loses money and moves toward a separation. Packaging Solutions North America had a segment operating profit of $427 million in Q3 2026, and the company guides its 2026 adjusted EBITDA at $2.27 billion to $2.31 billion. Packaging Solutions EMEA had an operating loss of $73 million in Q3 2026, and the company recorded a goodwill impairment of $1.38 billion for it. Free cash flow was negative $267 million in Q3 because capital spending was high. For the price to rise, four things must be true. Price increases and cost cuts in North America must continue while box demand is soft. The Riverdale mill conversion and the NORPAC mill must add profit as planned. The EMEA separation must be completed on terms that keep its value. Debt of $9,691 million must come down when capital spending falls. The Q4 2026 report, expected in late January 2027, is the next test. If box demand stays weak, the turnaround can take several more years. ## Checkpoints - Jan 28, 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 results. Status: Pending. Watch: Packaging Solutions North America segment operating profit for Q4 is in the guided range of $460 million to $500 million, and this passes; a result below $460 million fails. - Q2 2027 (estimate): Plan for the EMEA separation. Status: Pending. Watch: The Board approves the form and the capital structure of the EMEA separation, and this passes; a delay with no plan fails. ## Balance sheet - Cash: $815M - Debt: $9.7B - Net debt: $8.9B - Debt due within 12 months: $2.2B At September 30, 2026, International Paper had cash and temporary investments of $815 million. Notes payable and current maturities of long-term debt were $2,203 million and long-term debt was $7,488 million, which is $9,691 million in all. Overfunded pension plan assets were $564 million and the underfunded pension benefit obligation was $294 million. Cash provided by operating activities was $339 million in Q3, and free cash flow was negative $267 million. As of 2026-09-30. Sources: - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/51434/000005143426000154/ip-20260930.htm - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/51434/000005143426000147/nextgenip-20260930ex991.htm ## Dividends - Dividend yield: 5.5% (last 12 months, at the current price) - Paid per share, last 12 months: $1.852 (4 payments) - Current annual rate: $1.852 ($0.463 x 4 a year) - Latest ex-dividend date: 2026-08-14, $0.463 per share - Growth from 2020 to 2025: -1.0% a year - Growth from 2015 to 2025: 1.8% a year Dividends per share by year: 2016: $1.6884, 2017: $1.7652, 2018: $1.8229, 2019: $1.9063, 2020: $1.9432, 2021: $1.9204, 2022: $1.852, 2023: $1.852, 2024: $1.852, 2025: $1.852. Source: company filings and market data, read on 2026-11-12. ## Recent events - 2026-10-28: International Paper reported Q3 2026 results. Net sales were $6,197 million and the loss from continuing operations was $1,097 million, after a non-cash goodwill impairment of $1.38 billion for Packaging Solutions EMEA. Adjusted EBITDA was $843 million. Because of the planned separation of EMEA and UK regulatory requirements, it no longer gives guidance for EMEA. - 2026-10-28: In Q3 2026, the Pine Hill, Alabama mill stopped for a time because weather damaged its roof. North American box shipments fell about 2% a day from a year before. - 2026-07-14: The Board appointed Katherine Collins and Lori J. Ryerkerk as independent directors from October 1, 2026. - 2026-06-04: International Paper bought North Pacific Paper Company (NORPAC), a mill in Longview, Washington, for $362 million. - 2026-01-23: International Paper sold its Global Cellulose Fibers business to American Industrial Partners for $1.1 billion in cash and preferred stock with a liquidation preference of $168 million. ## Latest news and filings - Last earnings: 2026-10-28 (8-K: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/51434/000005143426000147/) - Next earnings: 2027-01-28 (expected; the company has not confirmed it) | Filed | Form | Headline | Period end | XBRL document | Link | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026-11-04 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Sep 30, 2026 | 2026-09-30 | ip-20260930 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/51434/000005143426000154/ip-20260930.htm | | 2026-10-28 | 8-K | Earnings release | | ip-20261028 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/51434/000005143426000147/ | | 2026-10-08 | 8-K | Current report | | ip-20261008 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/51434/000005143426000140/ip-20261008.htm | | 2026-08-05 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Jun 30, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | ip-20260630 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/51434/000005143426000123/ip-20260630.htm | | 2026-07-30 | 8-K | Earnings release | | ip-20260730 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/51434/000005143426000115/ | | 2026-07-17 | 8-K | Change of directors or officers | | ip-20260714 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/51434/000005143426000112/ip-20260714.htm | | 2026-05-11 | 8-K | Shareholder vote results | | ip-20260511 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/51434/000005143426000075/ip-20260511.htm | | 2026-05-05 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Mar 31, 2026 | 2026-03-31 | ip-20260331 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/51434/000005143426000074/ip-20260331.htm | | 2026-04-30 | 8-K | Earnings release | | ip-20260430 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/51434/000005143426000067/ | | 2026-02-27 | 10-K | Annual report for the period ended Dec 31, 2025 | 2025-12-31 | ip-20251231 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/51434/000005143426000055/ip-20251231.htm | Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 51434): https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000051434&type=&dateb=&owner=include&count=40 ## Risks - High: The EMEA business loses money. Packaging Solutions EMEA had a segment operating loss of $204 million for nine months of 2026, and the company recorded a goodwill impairment of $1.38 billion for it in Q3 2026. - High: Box demand is soft. North American box shipments fell about 2% a day in Q3 2026 from a year before, and recovered fiber, energy and diesel costs rose. - Medium: The separation of EMEA is complex. It may be a taxable spin-off or another option, and it depends on Board approval, the capital structure of the new company and other conditions. - Medium: Debt is large and cash flow is weak. Debt was $9,691 million at September 30, 2026, of which $2,203 million is current, and free cash flow was negative $267 million in Q3. - Medium: Internal controls are not effective. Management says that IT general control deficiencies in the legacy DS Smith environment are a material weakness, which it expects to fix after the separation. ## Links - Page: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/IP/ - History of changes: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/IP/history/ - JSON with full history: https://picks.utilarium.app/data/company/IP.json > Picks is a personal record of stock picks. It gives general opinions about stocks, including a "Top pick" label. They are not tailored to your needs, goals or risk tolerance. Kevin is not a registered adviser and relies on the general-advice exemption in Canadian securities law (NI 31-103 s.8.25). Do your own research, or ask a registered adviser. Kevin may hold any stock on this site. Prices, intrinsic values and ratings can be delayed or wrong; check the original source. Full disclaimer: /disclaimer/.