# Iron Mountain (IRM) Sector: Records storage and data center REIT | Field | Value | |---|---| | Price | $112.43 | | Market cap | $33B | | Intrinsic value source | AI estimate | | Data as of | 2026-11-12 | | Next earnings | 2027-02-11 (estimate) | Analysts: Bullish Picks: Research only Discount category: Close to intrinsic value ## In short The market prices Iron Mountain close to the AI estimate, as strong data center leasing meets growth spending funded with debt, and steady AFFO growth per share through 2027 can keep it there. ## Themes and gap - Themes: AI supplier (ai-supplier), Interest rates (interest-rates), High debt (leverage) - Gap type: Can close (closable) - Why: The Q4 2026 report in February 2027 and 2027 guidance show whether AFFO per share keeps growing at a double-digit rate while debt rises. ## About Iron Mountain Incorporated (Iron Mountain) is a real estate investment trust (REIT), based in Portsmouth, New Hampshire. It serves more than 240,000 customers in 61 countries. It stores and manages physical records, and it also runs data centers, digital services and asset lifecycle management (ALM). In Q3 2026, storage rental revenue was $1,150 million and service revenue was $841 million. A REIT does not report earnings per share as its main measure, so this page uses adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) per share. Iron Mountain reports AFFO after recurring capital spending but before growth capital spending. William Meaney is President and Chief Executive Officer. The shares trade on the New York Stock Exchange in US dollars. ## Thesis The market prices Iron Mountain close to the AI estimate, as a growth company whose AFFO per share must keep rising faster than the cost of the debt that funds growth in data centers and services. In Q3 2026, revenue rose 13.5% to $1,990.6 million, and AFFO per share rose 16% to $1.53. For nine months, AFFO per share rose 18% to $4.40. Guidance for 2026 AFFO per share is $5.94 to $6.00. The company plans about $2,050 million of growth capital spending in 2026, which is more than its AFFO of $1,780 million to $1,800 million, so it adds debt: total debt was $18.1 billion at September 30, 2026. For the price to stay close to the AI estimate, three things must be true. Data center leasing must stay strong, after 137 megawatts of new leases in nine months. Growth in storage and service revenue must keep AFFO per share growing at a double-digit rate. The cost of new debt must stay near the current level, so that interest does not take the gain. The dividend rose 15% to $0.993 per quarter, which signals confidence in AFFO growth. The next tests are the Q4 2026 report and 2027 guidance in February 2027. If AFFO growth holds, the price can stay close to the AI estimate. If growth slows or the cost of debt rises, the AI estimate would fall. ## Checkpoints - Feb 11, 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 results and 2027 guidance. Status: Pending. Watch: AFFO per share lands in the 2026 range of $5.94 to $6.00 and 2027 guidance shows double-digit growth, and this passes; slower growth fails. - May 2027 (estimate): Q1 2027 results: data center leasing and leverage. Status: Pending. Watch: New data center leases continue at a pace near that of 2026 while leverage stays under 5.0, and this passes; weak leasing or higher leverage fails. ## Valuation The intrinsic value for Iron Mountain is an AI estimate from November 12, 2026. It is not an analyst's value. An AI research agent calculated it from the filings of Iron Mountain with the SEC. Iron Mountain is a real estate investment trust (REIT), and the 10-Q says it has operated as a REIT since 2014. Depreciation of buildings is not a good measure of the cost of a REIT, so the estimate does not use earnings per share. The method is a multiple of adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) per share for 2027. The company defines AFFO after interest, recurring capital spending and cash taxes, so the estimate makes no debt adjustment. The Q3 2026 release (8-K, November 5, 2026) gives AFFO of $458.4 million, or $1.53 per share, for Q3, AFFO per share of $4.40 for nine months, and 2026 guidance of AFFO per share of $5.94 to $6.00, which is $5.97 at the midpoint. It also gives a quarterly dividend of $0.993 per share. The Form 10-Q for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 gives 297,833,786 shares outstanding at October 30, 2026, long-term debt of $18,096 million before discounts, cash of $188.2 million and planned growth capital spending of about $2,050 million for 2026. AFFO does not deduct growth capital spending, which the company funds with debt and equity, so the multiples are assumptions that allow for this. The 2027 AFFO per share and the multiples are assumptions. The low case assumes $6.40, up about 7% from the 2026 midpoint, because data center growth slows, at 15 times. It gives $96.00 per share. The base case assumes $6.90, up about 16%, which is about the growth of 2026, at 18 times. It gives $124.20 per share. The high case assumes $7.30, up about 22%, because data center leasing stays strong, at 21 times. It gives $153.30 per share. The estimate assumes weights of 25%, 50% and 25%. The weighted intrinsic value is $124.43 per share. As of 2026-11-12. Sources: - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1020569/000102056926000081/q32026earningspressrelea.htm - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1020569/000102056926000084/irm-20260930.htm ## Balance sheet - Cash: $188M - Debt: $18.1B - Net debt: $17.9B - Debt due within 12 months: $1.2B At September 30, 2026, Iron Mountain had cash of $188.2 million and long-term debt of $18,096 million before discounts, of which $1,233 million is the current portion. Its net total lease adjusted leverage ratio was 4.8, against a maximum of 7.0, and its fixed charge coverage ratio was 2.5, against a minimum of 1.5. At December 31, 2025, long-term debt was $16,544 million. The company had $988 million drawn on its revolving credit facility and term loan A, out of $3,219 million of capacity. It plans total capital spending of about $2,200 million in 2026, of which about $2,050 million is growth. AFFO was $1,317 million for nine months. As of 2026-09-30. Sources: - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1020569/000102056926000084/irm-20260930.htm - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1020569/000102056926000081/q32026srpfinal.htm ## Dividends - Dividend yield: 3.1% (last 12 months, at the current price) - Paid per share, last 12 months: $3.456 (4 payments) - Current annual rate: $3.456 ($0.864 x 4 a year) - Payout ratio: 657% of the earnings of the last fiscal year (the year ended 2025-12-31) - Latest ex-dividend date: 2026-09-15, $0.864 per share - Growth from 2020 to 2025: 5.4% a year - Growth from 2015 to 2025: 5.4% a year Dividends per share by year: 2016: $2.005, 2017: $2.238, 2018: $2.375, 2019: $2.452, 2020: $2.476, 2021: $2.476, 2022: $2.476, 2023: $2.538, 2024: $2.73, 2025: $3.219. Source: company filings and market data, read on 2026-11-13. ## Recent events - 2026-11-05: Iron Mountain reported Q3 2026 results. Revenue was $1,990.6 million, up 13.5%. Net income was $128.9 million, against $86.2 million. Adjusted EBITDA was $748.0 million, up 13.3%, with a margin of 37.6%. AFFO was $458.4 million, or $1.53 per share, up 16%. The company leased 102 megawatts of data center capacity in the quarter and 137 megawatts in nine months. - 2026-11-05: Iron Mountain raised its 2026 guidance. It now expects revenue of $7,950 million to $8,020 million, Adjusted EBITDA of $2,948 million to $2,978 million, AFFO of $1,780 million to $1,800 million and AFFO per share of $5.94 to $6.00. - 2026-11-05: Iron Mountain raised its quarterly dividend by 15% to $0.993 per share for Q4 2026. It is payable on January 6, 2027, to holders of record on December 15, 2026. - 2026-08-05: Iron Mountain reported Q2 2026 results. Revenue was $2,029.1 million, AFFO was $432.7 million, and AFFO per share was $1.44. - 2026-06-09: A subsidiary of Iron Mountain signed the Virginia 9 credit agreement, which lets it borrow up to $298 million in term loans at SOFR plus 3.00%. In January 2026, a Virginia 3 subsidiary signed mortgage and mezzanine loans with a total original principal of $433 million. ## Latest news and filings - Last earnings: 2026-11-05 (8-K: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1020569/000102056926000081/) - Next earnings: 2027-02-11 (expected; the company has not confirmed it) | Filed | Form | Headline | Period end | XBRL document | Link | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026-11-05 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Sep 30, 2026 | 2026-09-30 | irm-20260930 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1020569/000102056926000084/irm-20260930.htm | | 2026-11-05 | 8-K | Earnings release | | irm-20261105 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1020569/000102056926000081/ | | 2026-08-05 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Jun 30, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | irm-20260630 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1020569/000102056926000071/irm-20260630.htm | | 2026-08-05 | 8-K | Earnings release | | irm-20260805 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1020569/000102056926000068/ | | 2026-06-26 | 8-K | New material agreement and New debt or financial obligation | | | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1020569/000110465926078307/tm2618739d1_8k.htm | | 2026-05-12 | 8-K | Shareholder vote results and Other company news | | irm-20260507 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1020569/000102056926000055/irm-20260507.htm | | 2026-04-30 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Mar 31, 2026 | 2026-03-31 | irm-20260331 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1020569/000102056926000039/irm-20260331.htm | | 2026-04-30 | 8-K | Earnings release | | irm-20260430 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1020569/000102056926000036/ | | 2026-03-09 | 8-K | Other company news | | irm-20260309 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1020569/000102056926000016/irm-20260309.htm | | 2026-02-12 | 10-K | Annual report for the period ended Dec 31, 2025 | 2025-12-31 | irm-20251231 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1020569/000102056926000013/irm-20251231.htm | Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 1020569): https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001020569&type=&dateb=&owner=include&count=40 ## Risks - High: Debt is large and keeps growing. Total debt was $18.1 billion at September 30, 2026, and interest expense was $216.5 million in Q3. The net total lease adjusted leverage ratio was 4.8, against a limit of 7.0. - High: Growth capital spending is more than AFFO. The company plans about $2,050 million of growth capital spending in 2026, mostly for data centers, and it must raise debt or equity to fund the gap. - Medium: Data center demand can fall or move. Leases of 27.7 megawatts expire in 2027 and 45.2 megawatts in 2028, and a customer can choose another provider. - Medium: Physical records volume grows slowly: global records management volume rose only 0.9% from Q3 2025 to Q3 2026, so growth must come from price, services and new businesses. Service revenue can swing from quarter to quarter: it fell 6.0% from Q2 to Q3 2026. - Low: The REIT status has tax rules. If Iron Mountain fails to qualify as a REIT, it would pay more tax. ## Links - Page: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/IRM/ - History of changes: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/IRM/history/ - JSON with full history: https://picks.utilarium.app/data/company/IRM.json > Picks is a personal record of stock picks. It gives general opinions about stocks, including a "Top pick" label. They are not tailored to your needs, goals or risk tolerance. Kevin is not a registered adviser and relies on the general-advice exemption in Canadian securities law (NI 31-103 s.8.25). Do your own research, or ask a registered adviser. Kevin may hold any stock on this site. Prices, intrinsic values and ratings can be delayed or wrong; check the original source. Full disclaimer: /disclaimer/.