# Lumentum (LITE)

Sector: Optical components and systems

| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Price | $585.57 |
| Market cap | $53B |
| Intrinsic value source | Analysts |
| Data as of | 2026-11-11 |
| Next earnings | 2027-02-02 (estimate) |

Analysts: Bullish

Picks: Top pick

Discount category: Well below intrinsic value

## In short

Lumentum's price now follows Marvell's all-stock offer and very fast AI optics growth, and only a closed merger and a strong Marvell price can lift its value.

## Themes and gap

- Themes: AI supplier (ai-supplier), Regulation and courts (regulation-legal)
- Gap type: Can close (closable)
- Why: The stockholder votes in 2027 and the regulatory approvals decide whether Marvell's all-stock offer closes, which the companies expect in the first half of 2028.

## About

Lumentum Holdings Inc. (Lumentum) makes optical and photonic products for AI data centers, cloud computing, telecom networks, industrial manufacturing and sensing. Its components include high-power lasers and pump lasers. Its systems include optical transceivers for data centers and optical circuit switches. It makes many of its lasers in its own indium phosphide factories. Revenue was $3.01 billion in fiscal year 2026, which ended on June 27, 2026, and $1.26 billion in Q1 of fiscal year 2027. Two end customers gave 37% and 11% of revenue in that quarter. On November 1, 2026, Lumentum agreed to merge with Marvell Technology. The head office is in San Jose, California. Michael Hurlston is President and Chief Executive Officer.

## Thesis

The share price now depends mostly on the all-stock offer from Marvell, which pays 4.5 Marvell shares for each Lumentum share. So the price moves with the Marvell price and with the chance that the deal closes. The market also prices very fast growth from AI data centers, where revenue rose 136.5% in Q1 of fiscal year 2027. For the shares to earn more, three things must be true. The stockholders of both companies must approve the merger, and the regulators must clear it before the outside date. Lumentum must meet its guidance while demand for AI optics stays strong. And Marvell shares must hold their value, because the offer has a fixed exchange ratio. The Q2 fiscal 2027 report, expected in early February 2027, and the stockholder votes in 2027 are the next tests. The companies expect the deal to close in the first half of 2028.

## Checkpoints

- Nov 2, 2026: Q1 fiscal 2027 results: revenue at guidance. Status: Passed. Watch: Revenue of $1.225 billion or more and non-GAAP EPS of $4.05 or more pass; results below the guidance fail. Outcome: Revenue was $1.26 billion and non-GAAP EPS was $4.57, above the guidance.
- Feb 2, 2027 (estimate): Q2 fiscal 2027 results. Status: Pending. Watch: Revenue of $1.575 billion or more and non-GAAP EPS of $5.90 or more pass; results below the guidance fail.
- 2027 (estimate): Stockholder votes on the Marvell merger. Status: Pending. Watch: Approval by the stockholders of both companies passes; a rejection by either group fails.
- 2028 (estimate): Closing of the merger with Marvell. Status: Pending. Watch: A close in the first half of 2028 on the agreed terms passes; a regulatory block or an end of the agreement fails.

## Balance sheet

- Cash: $2.0B
- Debt: $1.4B
- Net cash: $580M
- Debt due within 12 months: $1.4B

At September 26, 2026, cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments were $1,980 million. Debt had a carrying value of $1,400 million. Most of it was convertible notes of $1,309 million, with $1,265 million of principal in the 2032 notes, which convert at $187.77 per share. All the notes are current liabilities, because holders can convert them now. By October 30, 2026, holders asked to convert $779.9 million of principal, which Lumentum pays in cash. The rest of the debt was $91 million of term loans in Japanese yen from Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation. In March 2026, NVIDIA bought $2.0 billion of convertible preferred stock, which is equity. Cash fell by $759 million in Q1 fiscal 2027, and Lumentum paid $493 million for note conversions in the quarter. At October 30, 2026, there were 90.7 million common shares and 2.9 million preferred shares.

As of 2026-09-26.

Sources:

- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1633978/000162828026069615/lite-20260926.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1633978/000162828026068655/lite_ex991xq1fy27.htm

## Dividends

Lumentum does not pay a dividend.

Source: company filings and market data, read on 2026-11-10.

## Recent events

- 2026-11-02: Lumentum reported Q1 fiscal 2027 results. Revenue rose 136.5% to $1.26 billion, GAAP net income was $360.3 million and non-GAAP EPS was $4.57. Lumentum guided Q2 revenue of $1.575 billion to $1.625 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $5.90 to $6.20. It also won its second major NPO/CPO order, with purchase commitments of more than $5 billion.
- 2026-11-01: Lumentum agreed to merge with Marvell Technology in an all-stock deal. Each Lumentum share will become 4.5 Marvell shares. The companies said that the deal implies about $1,132 per share and an enterprise value of $115 billion, and that it can close in the first half of 2028 after stockholder and regulatory approvals.
- 2026-08-11: Lumentum reported fiscal 2026 results. Revenue rose to $3.01 billion and non-GAAP EPS to $8.67. The GAAP net loss of $6.9 billion came from a one-time, non-cash loss of $7.8 billion when convertible notes became shares.
- 2026-03-02: Lumentum sold about 2.9 million shares of Series A convertible preferred stock to NVIDIA for $2.0 billion, or $695.31 per share.

## Latest news and filings

- Last earnings: 2026-11-02 (8-K: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1633978/000162828026068655/)
- Next earnings: 2027-02-02 (expected; the company has not confirmed it)

| Filed | Form | Headline | Period end | XBRL document | Link |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2026-11-03 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Sep 26, 2026 | 2026-09-26 | lite-20260926 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1633978/000162828026069615/lite-20260926.htm |
| 2026-11-02 | 8-K | New material agreement and Change of directors or officers |  |  | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1633978/000119312526442758/d163169d8k.htm |
| 2026-11-02 | 8-K | Earnings release |  | lite-20261102 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1633978/000162828026068655/ |
| 2026-08-17 | 10-K | Annual report for the period ended Jun 27, 2026 | 2026-06-27 | lite-20260627 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1633978/000162828026057358/lite-20260627.htm |
| 2026-08-11 | 8-K | Earnings release |  | lite-20260811 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1633978/000162828026055726/ |
| 2026-07-30 | 8-K | Change of directors or officers |  | lite-20260727 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1633978/000162828026051078/lite-20260727.htm |
| 2026-06-01 | 8-K | Current report |  |  | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1633978/000119312526249535/d112771d8k.htm |
| 2026-05-06 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Mar 28, 2026 | 2026-03-28 | lite-20260328 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1633978/000162828026030777/lite-20260328.htm |
| 2026-05-05 | 8-K | Earnings release |  | lite-20260505 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1633978/000162828026030530/ |
| 2026-04-08 | 8-K | Current report |  |  | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1633978/000119312526146256/d13152d8k.htm |

Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 1633978): https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001633978&type=&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

## Risks

- High: The merger needs the approval of both groups of stockholders and of regulators. The deal can end if it does not close by November 1, 2027, or a later date of up to August 1, 2028. In some cases, Lumentum must pay a fee of $2.9 billion, and in others Marvell must pay a fee of $3.2 billion or $5.8 billion.
- High: The offer pays a fixed 4.5 Marvell shares for each share. A fall in the Marvell price lowers the value of the offer.
- High: A small number of large customers buy most products. Two end customers gave 48% of revenue in Q1 fiscal 2027. A pause in their AI data center spending would lower revenue quickly.
- Medium: Lumentum must add factory capacity fast to meet demand. Delays, low yields or supply shortages would limit revenue, and new capacity can be too much when demand falls.
- Medium: Holders asked to convert $779.9 million of convertible notes by October 30, 2026. Lumentum pays the principal in cash, and it can pay the excess value in shares.

## Links

- Page: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/LITE/
- History of changes: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/LITE/history/
- JSON with full history: https://picks.utilarium.app/data/company/LITE.json

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