# Cheniere Energy (LNG)

Sector: Liquefied natural gas production and export

| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Price | $293.49 |
| Market cap | $60B |
| Intrinsic value source | Analysts |
| Data as of | 2026-11-11 |
| Next earnings | 2027-01-29 (estimate) |

Analysts: Very bullish

Picks: Research only

Discount category: Pricey

## In short

Investors pay a premium for the long-term contracts and growing cash flow of Cheniere, and only new expansions with new contracts and continued buybacks can earn it.

## Themes and gap

- Themes: Power and energy (power-energy), Tariffs and trade (trade-tariffs)
- Gap type: Can close (closable)
- Why: The investment decision on the Sabine Pass Expansion and the 2027 guidance show whether the cash flow per share can keep growing enough to earn the premium.

## About

Cheniere Energy (Cheniere) produces liquefied natural gas (LNG) on the U.S. Gulf Coast and sells it around the world, mostly under long-term contracts. It operates two terminals on the U.S. Gulf Coast: Sabine Pass in Louisiana, with more than 30 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) of capacity through Cheniere Energy Partners, and Corpus Christi in Texas, with more than 25 mtpa. In total, about 56 mtpa is in operation and about 5 mtpa is under construction. Cheniere owns the general partner and 48.6% of the limited partner interest of Cheniere Energy Partners. In the first nine months of 2026, it exported 559 cargoes. Its shares trade on the New York Stock Exchange. The head office is in Houston. Jack Fusco is Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer.

## Thesis

Cheniere trades above its intrinsic value because investors pay for its long-term contracts, its growing cash flow per share and its expansion plans, although new LNG projects around the world can cause a global surplus. About 95% of the expected production of its terminals is contracted through the mid-2030s, with a weighted average remaining life of about 15 years. In 2026, Cheniere raised its outlook three times, to Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA of $8.75 to $9.25 billion, and it completed Corpus Christi Stage 3. For the shares to earn this price, three things must be true. Cheniere must take a positive final investment decision on the first phase of the Sabine Pass Expansion and build it on budget. The new contracts, such as those with QatarEnergy and Petrobras in 2026, must fill the new capacity. Buybacks must continue toward the target of about $30 of Distributable Cash Flow per share. The Q4 2026 report and the 2027 guidance, expected in early 2027, and the investment decision on the Sabine Pass Expansion are the next tests. Lower LNG prices or delays to the expansions can make the premium hard to keep.

## Checkpoints

- Oct 29, 2026: Q3 2026 results and the 2026 guidance. Status: Passed. Watch: Higher Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA and a kept or higher guidance pass; a lower guidance fails. Outcome: Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA rose 18% to $1,900 million, and Cheniere raised its 2026 guidance to $8.75 to $9.25 billion.
- Jan 29, 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 results and the 2027 guidance. Status: Pending. Watch: 2026 Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA within $8.75 to $9.25 billion and 2027 guidance for stable or higher EBITDA pass; lower guidance fails.
- 2027 (estimate): Final investment decision on the Sabine Pass Expansion. Status: Pending. Watch: A positive final investment decision on the first phase with the planned term loan passes; a delay past 2027 fails.

## Balance sheet

- Cash: $1.7B
- Debt: $23.9B
- Net debt: $22.3B
- Undrawn credit line: $6.0B
- Debt due within 12 months: $1.3B

Cheniere funds itself with long-term debt at the parent and at its project subsidiaries, and with cash flow. At September 30, 2026, cash and cash equivalents were $1,663 million, of which $569 million was held by Cheniere Energy Partners, and restricted cash was $393 million. Debt was $23,931 million, net of discount and issuance costs: current debt of $1,349 million and long-term debt of $22,582 million. Undrawn commitments under its credit facilities were $6,023 million, so total available liquidity was $8,079 million. In October 2026, S&P upgraded Cheniere Corpus Christi Holdings to A- with a stable outlook. On November 3, 2026, Cheniere priced $1.2 billion of 5.800% notes due 2037. In the first nine months of 2026, Cheniere bought back 7.7 million shares for $1.8 billion, repaid $307 million of debt and invested $2.8 billion of growth capital. $8.4 billion of the repurchase authorization was left at September 30, 2026, and there were 204,203,914 shares on October 23, 2026. The quarterly dividend is $0.625 per share.

As of 2026-09-30.

Sources:

- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/3570/000000357026000040/cei20263rdqtrerex991.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/3570/000000357026000038/lng-20260930.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/3570/000119312526444411/d119932dex992.htm

## Dividends

- Dividend yield: 0.8% (last 12 months, at the current price)
- Paid per share, last 12 months: $2.29 (4 payments)
- Current annual rate: $2.50 ($0.625 x 4 a year)
- Payout ratio: 9% of the earnings of the last fiscal year (the year ended 2025-12-31)
- Latest ex-dividend date: 2026-11-09, $0.625 per share

Dividends per share by year: 2016: $0.00, 2017: $0.00, 2018: $0.00, 2019: $0.00, 2020: $0.00, 2021: $0.33, 2022: $1.385, 2023: $1.62, 2024: $1.805, 2025: $2.055.

Source: company filings and market data, read on 2026-11-11.

## Recent events

- 2026-11-03: Cheniere priced $1.2 billion of 5.800% senior notes due 2037 at 99.313% of par. It can use the proceeds to repay debt, including the 5.125% senior secured notes of Corpus Christi Holdings due 2027.
- 2026-10-29: Cheniere reported Q3 2026 results. Revenues rose 39% to $6,173 million, net income was $1,170 million, or $5.65 per diluted share, and Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA rose 18% to $1,900 million. It exported 188 cargoes. Cheniere raised its 2026 guidance to Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA of $8.75 to $9.25 billion and Distributable Cash Flow of $6.05 to $6.55 billion, and it increased the quarterly dividend by over 12% to $0.625 per share. In October 2026, its subsidiaries signed long-term contracts with QatarEnergy for up to 4 mtpa of LNG from the early 2030s through 2054. In August 2026, the seventh and last midscale train of Corpus Christi Stage 3 was complete, ahead of the guaranteed schedule and within budget.
- 2026-08-06: Cheniere reported Q2 2026 results. Net income was $3.07 billion, and Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA was $1.80 billion. It raised its 2026 guidance to Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA of $7.90 to $8.40 billion.
- 2026-02-26: Cheniere reported 2025 results. It exported a record 670 cargoes. Net income was $5.33 billion, or $24.13 per diluted share, and Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA was $6.94 billion. It increased its share repurchase authorization by $9 billion, to more than $10 billion through 2030.

## Latest news and filings

- Last earnings: 2026-10-29 (8-K: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/3570/000000357026000040/)
- Next earnings: 2027-01-29 (expected; the company has not confirmed it)

| Filed | Form | Headline | Period end | XBRL document | Link |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2026-11-03 | 8-K | New material agreement and Investor disclosure |  |  | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/3570/000119312526444411/d119932d8k.htm |
| 2026-10-29 | 8-K | Earnings release and Investor disclosure |  | lng-20261029 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/3570/000000357026000040/ |
| 2026-10-29 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Sep 30, 2026 | 2026-09-30 | lng-20260930 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/3570/000000357026000038/lng-20260930.htm |
| 2026-08-06 | 8-K | Earnings release |  | lng-20260806 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/3570/000000357026000030/ |
| 2026-08-06 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Jun 30, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | lng-20260630 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/3570/000000357026000028/lng-20260630.htm |
| 2026-07-28 | 8-K | Investor disclosure |  | lng-20260728 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/3570/000000357026000025/lng-20260728.htm |
| 2026-07-14 | 8-K | Change of directors or officers and Investor disclosure |  | lng-20260714 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/3570/000000357026000023/lng-20260714.htm |
| 2026-07-02 | 8-K | New material agreement and New debt or financial obligation |  |  | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/3570/000119312526294777/d73800d8k.htm |
| 2026-06-09 | 8-K | New material agreement |  |  | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/3570/000119312526263943/d318413d8k.htm |
| 2026-05-27 | 8-K | New material agreement and Investor disclosure |  |  | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/3570/000119312526240568/d130605d8k.htm |

Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 3570): https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000003570&type=&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

## Risks

- Medium: Other LNG producers are building new capacity. A global surplus can lower the prices of the uncontracted volumes that Cheniere Marketing sells and make new long-term contracts harder to sign.
- Medium: The Sabine Pass Expansion and the Corpus Christi Midscale Trains 8 and 9 need large investments. Delays, higher construction costs or missing permits can lower the return on these projects.
- Medium: Net income moves with non-cash changes in the fair value of derivatives, mainly the long-term Integrated Production Marketing agreements. In the first nine months of 2026, these changes reduced net income by about $3.6 billion before tax and non-controlling interests.
- Low: LNG exports need permits from the Department of Energy and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. A change in U.S. export policy or trade disputes can delay new projects.
- Low: The terminals are on the Gulf Coast, where hurricanes can stop production and damage facilities.

## Links

- Page: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/LNG/
- History of changes: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/LNG/history/
- JSON with full history: https://picks.utilarium.app/data/company/LNG.json

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