# Landstar System (LSTR) Sector: Truck brokerage & logistics | Field | Value | |---|---| | Price | $138.80 | | Market cap | $4.7B | | Intrinsic value source | Analysts | | Data as of | 2026-10-29 | | Next earnings | 2027-01-27 (estimate) | Analysts: Mixed Picks: Top pick Discount category: Below intrinsic value ## In short The market prices Landstar for rising insurance and claims costs, and stable claim costs with the recovery in truck prices over the next four to six quarters can close the gap. ## Themes and gap - Themes: Regulation and courts (regulation-legal), Weak consumer (weak-consumer) - Gap type: Can close (closable) - Why: The Q4 2026 report, expected in late January 2027, shows whether insurance and claims costs stop rising while truck prices stay higher. ## About Landstar System provides freight transportation and logistics services with few assets of its own. Independent commission sales agents find the freight. Independent business capacity owners (BCOs), who lease their trucks to Landstar, and truck brokerage carriers haul it. Truck transportation by BCOs and brokerage carriers was 93% of revenue in Q3 2026. Rail, air and ocean carriers hauled the rest. Landstar also has an insurance segment that covers part of its claims. Revenue was $4.74 billion in 2025. Its fiscal year ends in late December, and its headquarters is in Jacksonville, Florida. ## Thesis The market prices Landstar for higher insurance and claims costs, more than for the freight cycle. Freight demand and truck prices improved in 2026: revenue rose 25% in Q3 2026, and truck revenue per load rose about 25%. But insurance and claims costs rose to $55.3 million in Q3 2026 from $33.0 million a year earlier, and they included $13.0 million of adverse actuarial adjustments. In Q2 2026, the company also said that a recent U.S. Supreme Court decision in the Montgomery case can make freight brokers more liable for accidents. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Insurance and claims costs must stop rising as a share of revenue. The better truck prices must last into 2027, and the number of BCO trucks must keep growing after the net addition of 165 in Q3 2026. Working capital must return to normal so that free cash flow recovers from $87.1 million in the first nine months of 2026. The Q4 2026 report, expected in late January 2027, is the next test. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters. The main reason it may not close is that claim costs and broker liability can keep rising across the industry. ## Checkpoints - Jan 27, 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 results: insurance costs and truck prices. Status: Pending. Watch: Insurance and claims costs below the $55.3 million of Q3 2026, truck revenue per load that stays higher than a year earlier and more BCO trucks pass; new reserve increases or falling truck prices fail. - 2027 (estimate): Broker liability after the Montgomery decision. Status: Pending. Watch: Claims against Landstar's brokerage that stay stable pass; new large claims or verdicts that name Landstar as a broker fail. ## Balance sheet - Cash: $351M - Debt: $83M - Net cash: $268M - Undrawn credit line: $265M, to June 2031 - Debt due within 12 months: $26M Landstar has net cash. At September 26, 2026, cash was $297.3 million and short-term investments were $53.7 million, against debt of $82.7 million, mostly finance leases. The company reports net cash of $268.3 million. Its insurance segment also held non-current investments, and part of the investments secure $75.3 million of letters of credit for insurance claims. The undrawn credit is the amount available under the $300 million revolving credit facility, which had no borrowings and $34.8 million of letters of credit at September 26, 2026, and matures on June 30, 2031. Cash from operations was $98.7 million and free cash flow was $87.1 million in the first nine months of 2026, down from $144.5 million a year earlier. Trade receivables rose to $892.4 million from $670.1 million at December 27, 2025, as revenue grew. Landstar paid $110.2 million of dividends, including the $2.00 special dividend, and bought back shares for $65.2 million in the same period. As of 2026-09-26. Sources: - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/853816/000119312526434270/d176512dex991.htm - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/853816/000119312526434270/d176512dex992.htm - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/853816/000119312526435898/d153250d10q.htm ## Dividends - Dividend yield: 2.6% (last 12 months, at the current price) - Paid per share, last 12 months: $3.64 (5 payments) - Current annual rate: $1.76 ($0.44 x 4 a year) - Payout ratio: 108% of the earnings of the last fiscal year (the year ended 2025-12-27) - Latest ex-dividend date: 2026-08-18, $0.44 per share - Growth over the last 5 years: 4.8% a year Dividends per share by year: 2016: $0.34, 2017: $0.38, 2018: $2.13, 2019: $0.70, 2020: $2.79, 2021: $2.92, 2022: $3.10, 2023: $3.26, 2024: $3.38, 2025: $3.56. Source: company filings and market data, read on 2026-10-29. ## Recent events - 2026-10-27: Landstar reported Q3 2026 results. Revenue rose 25% to $1.512 billion, truck revenue rose 29% and EPS rose to $1.42 from $0.56. Insurance and claims costs rose to $55.3 million, including $13.0 million of adverse actuarial adjustments and $8.0 million from the settlement of two older accident claims. The BCO truck count grew by a net 165 trucks. The board declared a quarterly dividend of $0.44 per share. - 2026-07-28: Landstar reported Q2 2026 results. Revenue rose 18% to $1.432 billion, and EPS rose 20% to $1.44. Higher insurance and claims costs, mostly from older claims, lowered the result. The company said that the claim environment stays hard, especially after the U.S. Supreme Court's recent Montgomery decision on broker liability. - 2026-07-23: Landstar named William Clement, who spent the last 8 years at the trucking company CRST, as Chief Commercial Officer from August 1, 2026. - 2026-06-30: Landstar signed a new $300 million revolving credit facility that matures on June 30, 2031, with an uncommitted option to add $500 million. - 2026-04-28: Landstar reported Q1 2026 results. Revenue rose 2% to $1.171 billion, and EPS rose 36% to $1.16. Variable contribution grew for the first time since Q3 2022. - 2026-01-21: Landstar gave preliminary Q4 2025 results: revenue of $1,174 million and EPS of $0.70, down from $1.31. Insurance and claims costs of $56 million, including $22.0 million of discrete items, lowered the result. It confirmed the results on January 28, 2026. - 2025-12-03: Landstar's board declared a special cash dividend of $2.00 per share, paid on about January 21, 2026. ## Latest news and filings - Last earnings: 2026-10-27 (8-K: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/853816/000119312526434270/) - Next earnings: 2027-01-27 (expected; the company has not confirmed it) | Filed | Form | Headline | Period end | XBRL document | Link | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026-10-28 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Sep 26, 2026 | 2026-09-26 | | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/853816/000119312526435898/d153250d10q.htm | | 2026-10-27 | 8-K | Earnings release and Investor disclosure | | | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/853816/000119312526434270/d176512d8k.htm | | 2026-07-29 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Jun 27, 2026 | 2026-06-27 | | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/853816/000119312526322966/d144668d10q.htm | | 2026-07-28 | 8-K | Earnings release and Investor disclosure | | | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/853816/000119312526321050/d123956d8k.htm | | 2026-07-23 | 8-K | Other company news | | | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/853816/000119312526314490/d66119d8k.htm | | 2026-07-06 | 8-K | New material agreement and New debt or financial obligation | | | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/853816/000119312526296288/d110858d8k.htm | | 2026-05-06 | 8-K | Shareholder vote results | | | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/853816/000119312526207702/d35432d8k.htm | | 2026-04-29 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Mar 28, 2026 | 2026-03-28 | | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/853816/000119312526191131/d29755d10q.htm | | 2026-04-28 | 8-K | Earnings release and Investor disclosure | | | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/853816/000119312526187186/d84596d8k.htm | | 2026-04-02 | 8-K | Change of directors or officers | | | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/853816/000119312526139160/d105778d8k.htm | Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 853816): https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000853816&type=&dateb=&owner=include&count=40 ## Risks - High: Insurance and claims costs rose to $55.3 million in Q3 2026 from $33.0 million a year earlier. Large accident verdicts and settlements are rising in the industry. Landstar keeps part of the risk itself, so a few large claims can lower earnings. - Medium: The company said in July 2026 that the U.S. Supreme Court's Montgomery decision can expose freight brokers to more accident liability. More claims against brokers can raise Landstar's costs. - Medium: Truck freight is cyclical. EPS fell to $3.31 in 2025 from $11.76 in 2022. If freight demand or truck prices fall again, revenue and earnings can fall quickly. - Low: Landstar depends on independent agents and BCOs. If agents or BCOs leave, the company can lose freight and capacity. ## Links - Page: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/LSTR/ - History of changes: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/LSTR/history/ - JSON with full history: https://picks.utilarium.app/data/company/LSTR.json > Picks is a personal record of stock picks. It gives general information only, not financial, investment, tax or legal advice, and not advice for your situation. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Kevin may hold any stock on this site. Prices, intrinsic values and ratings can be delayed or wrong; check the original source. Full disclaimer: /disclaimer/.