# Mastercard (MA) Sector: Payment networks | Field | Value | |---|---| | Price | $655.81 | | Intrinsic value source | Analysts | | Data as of | 2026-11-10 | | Next earnings | 2027-01-28 (estimate) | Analysts: Bullish Picks: Research only Discount category: Far above intrinsic value ## In short Investors pay a premium for Mastercard's steady network growth and high margins, and growth near the low teens with stable fees after the merchant settlement can earn it. ## Themes and gap - Themes: Regulation and courts (regulation-legal), Weak consumer (weak-consumer) - Gap type: Can close (closable) - Why: The final approval hearing of the US merchant settlement in November 2026 and the full-year 2026 report in late January 2027 show whether growth and fees hold. ## About Mastercard runs a global payment network that connects consumers, merchants, banks, governments and businesses in more than 220 countries and territories. It does not lend money and does not issue cards. Banks and other customers issue Mastercard cards, and Mastercard earns fees on the volume and the number of transactions that go through its network, with higher fees on cross-border payments. It also sells value-added services and solutions, such as fraud and security tools, data analytics, consulting, loyalty programs and open banking. At September 30, 2026, customers had issued 3.8 billion Mastercard and Maestro cards. In Q3 2026, net revenue was $9.8 billion, gross dollar volume was $3.0 trillion and the operating margin was 59.8%. In August 2026, Mastercard bought BVNK, a stablecoin payments company. ## Thesis Mastercard trades at a premium because investors pay for a network that grows almost every year with high margins. Net revenue grew 14% in Q3 2026, value-added services and solutions grew 19%, cross-border volume grew 11% and the adjusted operating margin was 60.5%. Large buybacks also lower the share count: Mastercard bought back $11.9 billion of shares in the first nine months of 2026, and adjusted EPS grew 22% in that period. For the premium to be earned, four things must be true. Net revenue must keep growing at about a low double-digit rate in 2027, with value-added services growing faster than the network. Cross-border volume must keep growing about 10% or more. The settlement with the US merchant rules relief class must get final approval with costs near the terms of November 2025: a 10 basis point cut in the average US credit interchange rate and a five-year cap. New payment forms, such as stablecoins, account-to-account payments and AI agents that pay for users, must go through Mastercard's network and not around it. The court hearing on final approval in November 2026 and the full-year 2026 report in late January 2027 are the next tests. The premium can shrink if US law or regulators cut card fees, if merchants win large damages, or if consumer spending slows. ## Checkpoints - Nov 2026: Final approval of the US merchant settlement. Status: Pending. Watch: Final approval on the November 2025 terms passes; a court that rejects the settlement or asks for larger fee cuts fails. - Jan 28, 2027 (estimate): Full-year 2026 results: growth and services. Status: Pending. Watch: Net revenue growth near the low teens on a currency-neutral basis and value-added services growth above network growth pass; growth below 10% fails. ## Balance sheet - Cash: $10.5B - Debt: $24.1B - Net debt: $13.6B - Interest cover: 25× - Undrawn credit line: $8.0B, to November 2030 - Debt due within 12 months: $1.8B - Last debt due: 2051 Mastercard funds itself with senior notes and has no bank borrowings. At September 30, 2026, total debt was $23.9 billion, up from $19.0 billion at December 31, 2025, after a $5.0 billion bond issue on June 8, 2026. Short-term debt was $1.7 billion: notes due in November 2026 and March 2027. The last notes are due in March 2051. Cash and cash equivalents were $10.1 billion and investments were $0.3 billion. Interest cover is operating income divided by interest expense for the first nine months of 2026. The $8 billion revolving credit facility runs to November 7, 2030 and supports an $8 billion commercial paper program, with no borrowings at September 30, 2026. In the first nine months of 2026, cash from operations was $11.9 billion, and Mastercard paid $11.9 billion for its own shares and $2.3 billion of dividends. It had $4.9 billion of buyback authorization left on October 26, 2026. As of 2026-09-30. Sources: - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1141391/000114139126000124/ma-20260930.htm - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1141391/000114139126000122/ma09302026-exx991xearnings.htm - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1141391/000119312526261669/d128075d8k.htm ## Dividends - Dividend yield: 0.5% (last 12 months, at the current price) - Paid per share, last 12 months: $3.48 (4 payments) - Current annual rate: $3.48 ($0.87 x 4 a year) - Payout ratio: 18% of the earnings of the last fiscal year (the year ended 2025-12-31) - Latest ex-dividend date: 2026-10-09, $0.87 per share - Growth over the last 5 years: 14.6% a year - Growth over the last 10 years: 16.4% a year Dividends per share by year: 2016: $0.76, 2017: $0.88, 2018: $1.00, 2019: $1.32, 2020: $1.60, 2021: $1.76, 2022: $1.96, 2023: $2.28, 2024: $2.64, 2025: $3.04. Source: company filings and market data, read on 2026-11-09. ## Recent events - 2026-10-29: Mastercard reported Q3 2026 results. Net revenue grew 14% to $9.8 billion. Payment network revenue grew 11%, and value-added services and solutions revenue grew 19%. Gross dollar volume grew 7%, cross-border volume grew 11% and switched transactions grew 9%. Adjusted EPS grew 21% to $5.31. Mastercard bought back 5.3 million shares for $3.0 billion and paid $763 million of dividends in the quarter. - 2026-08-03: Mastercard completed its purchase of BVNK, a provider of stablecoin payments infrastructure, for $1.4 billion in cash. The sellers can earn up to $300 million more if BVNK meets performance targets. On the same day, Sachin Mehra became Chief Business Officer and Ling Hai became Chief Financial Officer. - 2026-07-30: Mastercard reported Q2 2026 results. Net revenue grew 14% to $9.3 billion, or 12% on a currency-neutral basis, and adjusted EPS was $5.04. It said that it launched a market-first agentic payment capability for AI agents. - 2026-06-08: Mastercard issued $5.0 billion of new notes, with maturities from 2028 to 2036 and fixed rates from 4.325% to 5.000%, plus floating rate notes due 2028. - 2026-04-30: Mastercard reported Q1 2026 results. Net revenue grew 16% to $8.4 billion, and adjusted EPS was $4.60. It recorded a restructuring charge in the quarter. - 2026-01-29: Mastercard reported 2025 results. Net revenue grew 16%, and adjusted EPS grew 17% to $17.01. In December 2025, the board approved a new $14.0 billion share buyback program. - 2025-11-10: Mastercard and Visa signed an updated settlement with the US merchant rules relief class. Merchants can choose whether to accept consumer credit and commercial credit cards, and get simpler surcharge rules. The networks cut the average US credit interchange rate by 10 basis points and cap it for five years. The rule changes start after the court approves the settlement. The court gave preliminary approval in June 2026. ## Latest news and filings - Last earnings: 2026-10-29 (8-K: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1141391/000114139126000122/) - Next earnings: 2027-01-28 (expected; the company has not confirmed it) | Filed | Form | Headline | Period end | XBRL document | Link | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026-10-29 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Sep 30, 2026 | 2026-09-30 | ma-20260930 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1141391/000114139126000124/ma-20260930.htm | | 2026-10-29 | 8-K | Earnings release | | ma-20261029 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1141391/000114139126000122/ma-20261029.htm | | 2026-07-30 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Jun 30, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | ma-20260630 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1141391/000114139126000083/ma-20260630.htm | | 2026-07-30 | 8-K | Earnings release | | ma-20260730 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1141391/000114139126000081/ma-20260730.htm | | 2026-06-17 | 8-K | Shareholder vote results | | ma-20260616 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1141391/000114139126000041/ma-20260616.htm | | 2026-06-08 | 8-K | Other company news | | | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1141391/000119312526261669/d128075d8k.htm | | 2026-06-02 | 8-K | Change of directors or officers | | ma-20260529 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1141391/000114139126000037/ma-20260529.htm | | 2026-05-07 | 8-K | Change of directors or officers | | ma-20260505 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1141391/000114139126000034/ma-20260505.htm | | 2026-04-30 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Mar 31, 2026 | 2026-03-31 | ma-20260331 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1141391/000114139126000031/ma-20260331.htm | | 2026-04-30 | 8-K | Earnings release | | ma-20260430 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1141391/000114139126000029/ma-20260430.htm | Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 1141391): https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001141391&type=&dateb=&owner=include&count=40 ## Risks - Medium: Regulation and lawsuits can lower card fees. The rules relief settlement cuts US credit interchange and lets merchants refuse some cards. Block and Intuit seek more than $5 billion of damages, and merchants in the UK, the Netherlands and Portugal also sue. - Medium: New payment forms can go around card networks. Stablecoins, real-time account-to-account payments and government payment systems can take volume. Mastercard bought BVNK to take part in stablecoin payments, but the result is not yet known. - Low: Revenue moves with consumer spending and travel. A recession or less travel can slow volume, and cross-border volume gives the highest fees. - Low: Rebates and incentives to large banks and merchants grow fast. They rose 18% in Q3 2026, faster than gross dollar volume, because banks negotiate hard for new and renewed deals. ## Links - Page: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/MA/ - History of changes: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/MA/history/ - JSON with full history: https://picks.utilarium.app/data/company/MA.json > Picks is a personal record of stock picks. It gives general opinions about stocks, including a "Top pick" label. They are not tailored to your needs, goals or risk tolerance. Kevin is not a registered adviser and relies on the general-advice exemption in Canadian securities law (NI 31-103 s.8.25). Do your own research, or ask a registered adviser. Kevin may hold any stock on this site. Prices, intrinsic values and ratings can be delayed or wrong; check the original source. Full disclaimer: /disclaimer/.