# MercadoLibre (MELI)

Sector: E-commerce & fintech

| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Price | $1673.09 |
| Market cap | $85B |
| Intrinsic value source | Analysts |
| Data as of | 2026-10-29 |
| Next earnings | 2026-11-04 (confirmed) |

Analysts: Bullish

Picks: Top pick

Discount category: Below intrinsic value

## In short

The market prices MercadoLibre for lower margins while it invests in shipping and credit, and fast growth with a margin that starts to recover in 2027 can close the gap.

## Themes and gap

- Themes: Weak consumer (weak-consumer)
- Gap type: Can close (closable)
- Why: The Q3 2026 report on November 4, 2026 and the next quarterly reports show whether the operating margin stops falling while growth stays high.

## About

MercadoLibre runs the largest e-commerce and fintech business in Latin America. Mercado Libre is its online marketplace, with its own delivery network, Mercado Envios, and an advertising business. Mercado Pago gives payments, digital accounts, credit cards, loans, investments and insurance. Its largest markets are Brazil, Mexico and Argentina. In Q2 2026, net revenues and financial income were $10.2 billion, gross merchandise volume was $21.9 billion and total payment volume was $101 billion. The company is incorporated in Delaware, its shares trade on Nasdaq and it reports in US dollars.

## Thesis

The market prices MercadoLibre for lower margins while it invests to grow. Revenue grew 50% in Q2 2026, but income from operations fell 17%, and the operating margin fell to 6.7% from 12.2% a year earlier. The company lowered the free shipping threshold in Brazil, issues many new credit cards that lose money at first and spends on 1P sales, cross-border trade and the MELI+ program. The credit portfolio grew 75% to more than $16 billion. Brazil, its largest market, also had a sharp fall in stocks and in the real on October 26, 2026, after the presidential runoff, according to press reports, and a weaker real lowers profit in US dollars. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Revenue must keep growing quickly, while the operating margin stops falling and starts to recover in 2027. The credit card cohorts must mature and the credit card NIMAL must rise from -2.5% in Q2 2026. Engagement must keep rising, so that the investments in shipping and credit pay back. The Q3 2026 report on November 4, 2026 gives the next test. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters. The main reason it may not close is that the company keeps margins low for longer, or that a weak economy in Brazil, Mexico or Argentina raises credit losses.

## Checkpoints

- Nov 4, 2026: Q3 2026 results: growth and margin. Status: Pending. Watch: Revenue growth above 35% on an FX-neutral basis with an operating margin at or above the 6.7% of Q2 2026 passes; a lower margin with slower growth fails.
- Feb 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 results: margin recovery. Status: Pending. Watch: An operating margin above the 6.7% of Q2 2026 and a better credit card NIMAL pass; a further fall in margin fails.

## Balance sheet

- Cash: $6.8B
- Debt: $13.2B
- Net debt: $6.4B
- Debt due within 12 months: $7.0B

MercadoLibre funds its credit book with deposits held by Mercado Pago, securitizations, bank loans and corporate notes. Debt here includes loans payable, other financial liabilities and $2.55 billion of operating lease liabilities, and cash includes short-term and long-term investments, as the company defines net debt. Net debt rose to $6.43 billion at June 30, 2026 from $4.68 billion at December 31, 2025, mainly because the credit portfolio grew. The amount due within 12 months is current loans payable and other financial liabilities of $6.48 billion plus current lease liabilities of $0.51 billion. Restricted cash, mostly customer funds, of $13.1 billion is not in the cash figure. Adjusted EBITDA was $975 million in Q2 2026. Adjusted free cash flow was $214 million in Q2 2026, after $441 million of capital spending and $2.1 billion of growth in the credit portfolio. On September 14, 2026, after the quarter end, the company sold $1.0 billion of 5.850% notes due 2036.

As of 2026-06-30.

Sources:

- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1099590/000109959026000021/meli-20260805xex991.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1099590/000109959026000023/meli-20260630.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1099590/000114036126036495/ef20081942_8k.htm

## Dividends

MercadoLibre does not pay a dividend.

Source: company filings and market data, read on 2026-10-29.

## Recent events

- 2026-09-14: MercadoLibre closed the sale of $1.0 billion of 5.850% notes due 2036.
- 2026-08-05: MercadoLibre reported Q2 2026 results. Net revenues and financial income rose 50% to $10.2 billion, the fastest growth in four years. Income from operations fell 17% to $683 million, a 6.7% margin, and net income fell 11% to $466 million. GMV rose 36% and TPV rose 56% on an FX-neutral basis. The credit portfolio grew 75% to more than $16 billion.
- 2026-05-07: MercadoLibre reported Q1 2026 results. Net revenues and financial income rose 49% to $8.8 billion. Income from operations fell 20% to $611 million, and net income was $417 million.
- 2026-02-24: MercadoLibre reported 2025 results. Net revenues and financial income rose 39% to $28.9 billion, income from operations rose 22% to $3.2 billion and net income was $2.0 billion, or $39.40 per diluted share. In Q4 2025, revenue rose 45% and the operating margin was 10.1%.

## Latest news and filings

- Last earnings: 2026-08-05 (8-K: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1099590/000109959026000021/)
- Next earnings: 2026-11-04 (confirmed by the company)

| Filed | Form | Headline | Period end | XBRL document | Link |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2026-09-14 | 8-K | Other company news |  |  | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1099590/000114036126036495/ef20081942_8k.htm |
| 2026-09-10 | 8-K | New material agreement and Investor disclosure |  |  | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1099590/000114036126036136/ef20081842_8k.htm |
| 2026-08-06 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Jun 30, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | meli-20260630 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1099590/000109959026000023/meli-20260630.htm |
| 2026-08-05 | 8-K | Earnings release |  | meli-20260805 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1099590/000109959026000021/meli-20260805.htm |
| 2026-06-12 | 8-K | Shareholder vote results |  |  | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1099590/000199937126012770/meli-8k_060926.htm |
| 2026-05-08 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Mar 31, 2026 | 2026-03-31 | meli-20260331 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1099590/000109959026000017/meli-20260331.htm |
| 2026-05-07 | 8-K | Earnings release |  | meli-20260507 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1099590/000109959026000014/meli-20260507.htm |
| 2026-04-03 | 8-K | Change of directors or officers |  |  | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1099590/000199937126007656/meli_8k-033126.htm |
| 2026-02-25 | 10-K | Annual report for the period ended Dec 31, 2025 | 2025-12-31 | meli-20251231 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1099590/000109959026000006/meli-20251231.htm |
| 2026-02-24 | 8-K | Earnings release |  | meli-20260224 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1099590/000109959026000003/meli-20260224.htm |

Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 1099590): https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001099590&type=&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

## Risks

- High: Margins. The operating margin fell to 6.7% in Q2 2026 from 12.2% a year earlier, because of shipping, credit card and other growth investments. If these investments do not pay back, profit can stay low for a long time.
- High: Credit risk. The credit portfolio grew 75% to more than $16 billion in a year, and new credit card cohorts lose money at first. A weaker economy in Brazil, Mexico or Argentina can raise provisions quickly.
- Medium: Currency and country risk. Most revenue is in Brazilian reais, Mexican pesos and Argentine pesos. After the October 25, 2026 presidential runoff, the real fell sharply, according to press reports. Weaker currencies lower revenue and profit in US dollars.
- Medium: Competition. Large global e-commerce and payments companies compete in all of its markets. More competition can force the company to spend more on shipping, prices and marketing.

## Links

- Page: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/MELI/
- History of changes: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/MELI/history/
- JSON with full history: https://picks.utilarium.app/data/company/MELI.json

> Picks is a personal record of stock picks. It gives general information only, not financial, investment, tax or legal advice, and not advice for your situation. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Kevin may hold any stock on this site. Prices, intrinsic values and ratings can be delayed or wrong; check the original source. Full disclaimer: /disclaimer/.