# MSCI (MSCI)

Sector: Financial indexes and analytics

| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Price | $661.53 |
| Market cap | $47B |
| Intrinsic value source | Analysts |
| Data as of | 2026-11-12 |
| Next earnings | 2027-01-27 (estimate) |

Analysts: Bullish

Picks: Research only

Discount category: Pricey

## In short

The market ties MSCI to market levels and ETF flows and doubts its pricing against AI tools and fee changes, and steady subscription growth with fee growth after the new BlackRock terms can lift its value.

## Themes and gap

- Themes: AI disruption risk (ai-disruption), High debt (leverage)
- Gap type: Can close (closable)
- Why: The Q4 2026 report in late January 2027 and the first 2027 quarters show whether asset-based fees keep growing after the new BlackRock terms and whether analytics sales hold.

## About

MSCI Inc. (MSCI) sells indexes, analytics and data to asset managers, asset owners, hedge funds, banks and wealth advisers. It has four reporting groups. Index licenses equity indexes for subscription fees and for asset-based fees on funds and ETFs that follow them. Analytics sells risk and portfolio tools. Sustainability and Climate sells ESG ratings and climate data. All Other holds Real Assets and Private Capital Solutions, which serve private assets. Operating revenues were $3,134.5 million in 2025 and $2,609.8 million in the first nine months of 2026. Total Run Rate, the annual value of recurring contracts, was $3,571.9 million at September 30, 2026. MSCI had 6,259 employees at that date. It is based in New York, and its shares trade on the New York Stock Exchange. Henry A. Fernandez is Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President.

## Thesis

The market prices MSCI on the growth of the assets that follow its indexes and on how much of its pricing it can keep. About 28% of Q3 2026 revenue came from asset-based fees, which move with ETF assets and market levels, so a fall in markets cuts revenue quickly. Investors also doubt two long-term points: whether clients keep paying for analytics and ESG data as AI tools spread, and whether the new BlackRock terms, which change fees for some funds from January 1, 2026 and again on January 1, 2027, slow the growth of fee income. MSCI also holds $6.76 billion of debt and has negative equity, because it returns cash through buybacks. For the shares to earn more, three things must be true. Organic recurring subscription Run Rate growth must stay near 8% to 9% with retention at about 95%. Asset-based fees must keep growing after the 2027 fee changes. And the adjusted EBITDA margin must stay near 62% while debt stays at 3.0 to 3.5 times adjusted EBITDA and buybacks continue. The Q4 2026 report with 2027 guidance, expected in late January 2027, and the Q1 2027 report are the next tests.

## Checkpoints

- Oct 20, 2026: Q3 2026 results: subscription growth and retention. Status: Passed. Watch: Organic recurring subscription Run Rate growth of 8% or more with a Retention Rate of 94% or more passes; lower growth or retention fails. Outcome: Organic recurring subscription Run Rate growth was 8.7%, and the Retention Rate was 95.0%.
- Jan 27, 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 results and 2027 guidance. Status: Pending. Watch: Full-year free cash flow in or above the $1,485 million to $1,545 million guide, and 2027 guidance that grows costs slower than revenue, pass; a miss on cash or faster cost growth fails.
- Apr 2027 (estimate): Q1 2027 results: asset-based fees after the fee changes. Status: Pending. Watch: Index asset-based fees that still grow by 15% or more after the January 1, 2027 fee changes pass; growth below 10% fails.

## Balance sheet

MSCI had cash of $261.0 million at September 30, 2026 and kept to its usual range of $225 million to $275 million. Debt principal was $6,760.0 million: $6.0 billion of senior unsecured notes and $810.0 million drawn on the revolving credit facility, which runs to August 2030. The first notes are due in November 2029. Debt was 3.2 times adjusted EBITDA, within MSCI's range of 3.0 to 3.5 times, and 4.9 times net income. Shareholders' equity was negative $3,016.4 million, because MSCI has returned more cash than it earned. Goodwill was $3,047.8 million. In Q3 2026, net cash from operations was $436.1 million and free cash flow was $385.4 million, and 2026 free cash flow guidance is $1,485 million to $1,545 million. At October 13, 2026, there were 71.5 million shares. MSCI paid $147.5 million of dividends in Q3, and the Q4 dividend is $2.05 per share.

As of 2026-09-30.

Sources:

- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1408198/000140819826000054/exhibit991earningsrelease-.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1408198/000140819826000056/msci-20260930.htm

## Dividends

- Dividend yield: 1.2% (last 12 months, at the current price)
- Paid per share, last 12 months: $7.95 (4 payments)
- Current annual rate: $8.20 ($2.05 x 4 a year)
- Payout ratio: 46% of the earnings of the last fiscal year (the year ended 2025-12-31)
- Latest ex-dividend date: 2026-08-14, $2.05 per share
- Growth from 2020 to 2025: 19.8% a year
- Growth from 2015 to 2025: 24.6% a year

Dividends per share by year: 2016: $1.00, 2017: $1.32, 2018: $1.92, 2019: $2.52, 2020: $2.92, 2021: $3.64, 2022: $4.58, 2023: $5.52, 2024: $6.40, 2025: $7.20.

Source: company filings and market data, read on 2026-11-13.

## Recent events

- 2026-10-20: MSCI reported Q3 2026 results. Operating revenues were $892.0 million, up 12.4%, with organic growth of 12.3%. Recurring subscription revenues rose 7.7% and asset-based fees rose 24.9%. Operating margin was 56.3%, adjusted EBITDA was $554.8 million (62.2% margin), diluted EPS was $4.86 and adjusted EPS was $5.11, up 14.3%. Organic recurring subscription Run Rate growth was 8.7%, and the Retention Rate was 95.0%.
- 2026-10-20: MSCI bought back $552.3 million of shares in Q3 2026, about 1.0 million shares at an average of $562.92, and about $0.9 billion of authorization was left at October 19. The Board declared a dividend of $2.05 per share, payable on November 27, 2026 to holders of record on November 13. For 2026, MSCI raised its interest expense guidance to $288 million to $291 million, narrowed its tax rate guidance to 18.0% to 19.5%, and kept free cash flow guidance at $1,485 million to $1,545 million.
- 2026-08-07: MSCI said in an 8-K that its Board named Chief Financial Officer Andrew Wiechmann as interim principal accounting officer, from August 10, 2026. This followed the departure of the Global Controller and Chief Accounting Officer that MSCI disclosed on March 31, 2026.
- 2026-08-03: MSCI completed the purchase of First Street Technology, a provider of physical climate risk data and analytics, for $122.6 million, net of cash acquired. First Street joins the Sustainability and Climate group.
- 2026-07-21: MSCI reported Q2 2026 results. Operating revenues were $867.0 million, up 12.2%, operating margin was 56.2%, and adjusted EPS was $4.94, up 18.5%.
- 2026-01-27: MSCI and BlackRock amended their license for ETFs that follow MSCI equity indexes. The amendment extends the term to March 31, 2035, with renewals of three years each. It revises the license fees for some funds from January 1, 2026, with more changes from January 1, 2027, and the fees still depend on fund assets and expense ratios.

## Latest news and filings

- Last earnings: 2026-10-20 (8-K: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1408198/000140819826000054/)
- Next earnings: 2027-01-27 (expected; the company has not confirmed it)

| Filed | Form | Headline | Period end | XBRL document | Link |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2026-10-20 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Sep 30, 2026 | 2026-09-30 | msci-20260930 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1408198/000140819826000056/msci-20260930.htm |
| 2026-10-20 | 8-K | Earnings release |  | msci-20261020 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1408198/000140819826000054/ |
| 2026-08-07 | 8-K | Change of directors or officers |  | msci-20260807 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1408198/000140819826000049/msci-20260807.htm |
| 2026-07-21 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Jun 30, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | msci-20260630 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1408198/000140819826000046/msci-20260630.htm |
| 2026-07-21 | 8-K | Earnings release |  | msci-20260721 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1408198/000140819826000044/ |
| 2026-04-23 | 8-K | Shareholder vote results |  | msci-20260421 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1408198/000140819826000038/msci-20260421.htm |
| 2026-04-21 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Mar 31, 2026 | 2026-03-31 | msci-20260331 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1408198/000140819826000034/msci-20260331.htm |
| 2026-04-21 | 8-K | Earnings release |  | msci-20260421 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1408198/000140819826000032/ |
| 2026-03-31 | 8-K | Change of directors or officers |  | msci-20260327 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1408198/000140819826000027/msci-20260327.htm |
| 2026-02-06 | 10-K | Annual report for the period ended Dec 31, 2025 | 2025-12-31 | msci-20251231 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1408198/000140819826000011/msci-20251231.htm |

Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 1408198): https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001408198&type=&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

## Risks

- Medium: Asset-based fees were about 28% of Q3 2026 revenue. They rise and fall with ETF assets and market levels, and the BlackRock amendment changes fees for some funds from 2026 and 2027, so lower markets or lower fees would slow growth.
- Medium: MSCI had $6,760 million of debt principal at September 30, 2026, or 3.2 times adjusted EBITDA, and interest expense guidance for 2026 rose to $288 million to $291 million. Shareholders' equity was negative $3,016 million. Higher rates or weaker profit would make the debt harder to carry.
- Medium: Analytics revenue grew 4.8% in Q3 2026, and its adjusted EBITDA fell 4.9% as expenses rose 14.3%. Competitors and AI tools could slow growth in this group.
- Medium: Sustainability and Climate revenue grew 4.0% in Q3 2026, or 2.2% without the acquisition and currency effects. Demand for ESG products depends on regulation and on client budgets.
- Low: Total operating expenses rose 12.8% in Q3 2026. MSCI also has an interim principal accounting officer after the departure of its Global Controller and Chief Accounting Officer.

## Links

- Page: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/MSCI/
- History of changes: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/MSCI/history/
- JSON with full history: https://picks.utilarium.app/data/company/MSCI.json

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