# Strategy (MSTR) Sector: Bitcoin treasury company and enterprise software | Field | Value | |---|---| | Price | $121.07 | | Intrinsic value source | AI estimate | | Data as of | 2026-11-11 | | Next earnings | 2027-01-29 (estimate) | Analysts: Bullish Picks: Research only Discount category: Close to intrinsic value ## In short Strategy's shares follow the bitcoin price with leverage, and the AI estimate, the value of its bitcoins less its debt and preferred stock, moves with that price every day. ## Themes and gap - Themes: High debt (leverage), Regulation and courts (regulation-legal), Interest rates (interest-rates) - Gap type: Can close (closable) - Why: The value moves with the bitcoin price every day, so a change in the bitcoin price can open or close the gap quickly. ## About Strategy Inc (Strategy), formerly MicroStrategy, calls itself a Bitcoin Treasury Company. It raises money from shares, preferred stock and convertible notes and uses it to buy bitcoin. At November 8, 2026, it held 850,364 bitcoins, which it bought for $64.16 billion, or about $75,456 per bitcoin. Its value comes mainly from these bitcoins. Strategy has four series of perpetual preferred stock in U.S. dollars, called Strife, Stretch, Strike and Stride, and one in euros, and it calls them Digital Credit. It also sells enterprise analytics software, with revenue of $125.4 million in Q3 2026. Its class A common stock (MSTR) and the U.S. preferred series trade on Nasdaq. The head office is in Tysons Corner, Virginia. Michael Saylor is Founder and Executive Chairman, and Phong Le is President and Chief Executive Officer. ## Thesis The AI estimate for Strategy is the value of its bitcoins, USD Reserve and USD Cash less its debt and preferred stock, so it moves with the bitcoin price every day. The price of the shares also follows the price of bitcoin, with leverage, because its debt and preferred stock come before the common shares. Investors also pay for its ability to sell new shares and preferred stock and buy more bitcoin per share. In 2026, this became harder. The bitcoin price fell, the bitcoins per share fell by 3.7% in the year to October 25, 2026, and Strategy spent $2.04 billion to buy back Stretch preferred stock that traded under its stated amount of $100. For the shares to earn more, three things must be true. The bitcoin price must rise, because it is the main input of the value. Strategy must raise capital that adds bitcoin per share, and not only fund dividends. And its USD Reserve, which covered about 3.4 years of dividends and interest in October 2026, must stay large enough that it does not need to sell bitcoin at low prices. The Q4 2026 report, expected in early 2027, and the weekly holdings updates are the next tests. Each change of $10,000 in the bitcoin price changes the AI estimate by about $20 per share. ## Checkpoints - Oct 29, 2026: Q3 2026 results: bitcoins per share. Status: Failed. Watch: Growth of bitcoins per share in 2026 passes; a fall fails. Outcome: The bitcoins per share fell by 3.7% in the year to October 25, 2026, although the holdings grew by 26%. - Jan 29, 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 results and the USD Reserve. Status: Pending. Watch: A USD Reserve that covers two years or more of dividends and interest, with no forced bitcoin sales, passes; a large fall fails. - Q2 2027 (estimate): Stretch preferred stock near its stated amount. Status: Pending. Watch: Stretch preferred stock that trades near $100 with fewer buybacks passes; a price well below $100 fails. ## Valuation The intrinsic value for Strategy is an AI estimate from November 11, 2026. It is not an analyst's value. An AI research agent calculated it from Strategy's filings. The method is net asset value per class A and class B share: the value of the bitcoins plus the USD Reserve and USD Cash, less the convertible notes and other debt at their principal and the preferred stock at its stated amount. The value moves with the bitcoin price, which is the main assumption. The 8-K of November 9, 2026 gives 850,364 bitcoins, a USD Reserve of $4.77 billion and USD Cash of $146.2 million at November 8, 2026. The Form 10-Q for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 gives convertible notes of $6.71 billion and other secured debt of $40 million, preferred stock of $1.28 billion of Strife, $1.40 billion of Strike, $1.40 billion of Stride and EUR 775 million of the euro series, and 402,714,357 class A and 19,640,250 class B shares at October 25, 2026. It also gives about $8.39 billion of Stretch at October 25, 2026, and the 8-Ks of November 2 and 9, 2026 give Stretch buybacks of about $398 million at the stated amount and 3,229,900 new class A shares. So the estimate uses $7.99 billion of Stretch, total preferred stock of about $12.97 billion, debt of about $6.75 billion and 425.6 million shares. The estimate treats the notes as debt, because the conversion prices, from $149.77, are above the share price. The exchange rate of $1.15 per euro is an assumption, and the software business gets no value. The bitcoin prices are assumptions. The low case assumes $50,000 per bitcoin. It gives $65.11 per share. The base case assumes $75,000 per bitcoin, near the price in early November 2026. It gives $115.06 per share. The high case assumes $105,000 per bitcoin. It gives $175.00 per share. The estimate assumes weights of 25%, 50% and 25%. The weighted intrinsic value is $117.56 per share. Each change of $10,000 in the bitcoin price changes the value by about $20 per share. The estimate finds no lasting advantage. Strategy is the largest company holder of bitcoin and has strong access to capital markets. But bitcoin is available to all buyers, and other companies and funds also hold it. So the estimate does not expect the advantage to last 10 years. As of 2026-11-11. Sources: - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1050446/000119312526452693/mstr-20261109.htm - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1050446/000105044626000060/mstr-20260930.htm - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1050446/000119312526442707/mstr-20261102.htm ## Balance sheet - Cash: $5.9B - Debt: $6.8B - Net debt: $854M Strategy funds its bitcoin purchases with class A shares, perpetual preferred stock and convertible notes. At September 30, 2026, cash was $2.50 billion and short-term investments were $3.40 billion. Six series of convertible notes had a principal of $6.71 billion, due from 2028 to 2032, with conversion prices from $149.77 to $672.40 per share, and other secured debt was $40 million. The preferred stock had a notional value of $1.28 billion of Strife, $9.10 billion of Stretch, $1.40 billion of Strike, $1.40 billion of Stride and EUR 775 million of the euro series. Strategy then bought back more Stretch preferred stock, which fell to about $8.39 billion at October 25, 2026. At November 8, 2026, the USD Reserve, which funds dividends and interest, was $4.77 billion, and USD Cash was $146.2 million. At October 25, 2026, there were 402,714,357 class A shares and 19,640,250 class B shares. Strategy pays no dividend on its common shares. As of 2026-09-30. Sources: - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1050446/000105044626000047/mstr-20261029x8kxex9912.htm - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1050446/000105044626000060/mstr-20260930.htm - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1050446/000119312526452693/mstr-20261109.htm ## Dividends Strategy does not pay a dividend. Source: company filings and market data, read on 2026-11-11. ## Recent events - 2026-11-09: Strategy reported that it held 850,364 bitcoins at November 8, 2026, at an average purchase price of $75,456. In the week to November 8, it sold 2,051,348 class A shares for net proceeds of $283.8 million, bought 1,036 bitcoins and bought back Stretch preferred stock for $188.3 million. The USD Reserve was $4.77 billion. - 2026-10-29: Strategy reported Q3 2026 results. Net income was $19.53 billion, or $44.75 per diluted share, mainly from a gain of $20.91 billion on its bitcoins. Revenue was $125.4 million. The Chief Financial Officer, Andrew Kang, steps down on November 5, 2026, and Reza Virasteh becomes Chief Financial Officer on January 1, 2027. - 2026-10-28: Shareholders approved daily dividends on the four U.S. dollar preferred series. Stretch pays daily dividends from November 1, 2026, and the other three from January 1, 2027. - 2026-07-30: Strategy reported Q2 2026 results, with a net loss of $8.22 billion, or $24.45 per share, because the bitcoin price fell. It reduced its convertible debt by 18% to $6.7 billion, set up a $1.0 billion repurchase program for its class A shares and started to sell some bitcoin to fund dividends and buybacks. - 2026-05-05: Strategy reported Q1 2026 results, with a net loss of $12.54 billion, or $38.25 per share. It held 818,334 bitcoins at May 3, 2026, after it raised $5.58 billion with Stretch preferred stock in the year. - 2026-02-05: Strategy reported 2025 results. The Q4 2025 net loss was $12.4 billion, because the bitcoin price fell. It held 713,502 bitcoins at February 1, 2026, and raised $25.3 billion of capital in 2025. ## Latest news and filings - Last earnings: 2026-10-29 (8-K: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1050446/000105044626000047/) - Next earnings: 2027-01-29 (expected; the company has not confirmed it) | Filed | Form | Headline | Period end | XBRL document | Link | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026-11-09 | 8-K | Investor disclosure and Other company news | | mstr-20261109 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1050446/000119312526452693/mstr-20261109.htm | | 2026-11-02 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Sep 30, 2026 | 2026-09-30 | mstr-20260930 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1050446/000105044626000060/mstr-20260930.htm | | 2026-11-02 | 8-K | Investor disclosure and Other company news | | mstr-20261102 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1050446/000119312526442707/mstr-20261102.htm | | 2026-10-29 | 8-K | Change to shareholder rights or bylaws and Shareholder vote results | | mstr-20261028 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1050446/000119312526437776/mstr-20261028.htm | | 2026-10-29 | 8-K | Earnings release and Change of directors or officers | | mstr-20261026 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1050446/000105044626000047/ | | 2026-10-28 | 8-K | Other company news | | mstr-20261028 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1050446/000119312526435451/mstr-20261028.htm | | 2026-10-26 | 8-K | Investor disclosure and Other company news | | mstr-20261026 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1050446/000119312526431146/mstr-20261026.htm | | 2026-10-19 | 8-K | Investor disclosure and Other company news | | mstr-20261019 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1050446/000119312526424688/mstr-20261019.htm | | 2026-10-16 | 8-K | Investor disclosure and Other company news | | mstr-20261015 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1050446/000119312526423400/mstr-20261015.htm | | 2026-10-13 | 8-K | Investor disclosure and Other company news | | mstr-20261012 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1050446/000119312526419726/mstr-20261012.htm | Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 1050446): https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001050446&type=&dateb=&owner=include&count=40 ## Risks - High: Almost all of the value is bitcoin. A fall in the bitcoin price lowers the value of the common shares by more than the fall in bitcoin, because the debt and preferred stock do not fall with it. - High: Strategy pays about $1.5 billion a year of preferred dividends and interest, and the software business does not cover this. Its USD Reserve and USD Cash of $5.07 billion covered about 3.4 years of these payments in October 2026. If it cannot sell new shares or preferred stock, it must use its USD Reserve or sell bitcoin. - Medium: Strategy sells many new class A shares. If the shares trade near or below the value of the bitcoins per share, new sales can lower the bitcoins per share. - Medium: Changes in laws, taxes or accounting rules for bitcoin, or a failure at a custodian, can lower the value or limit what Strategy can do. - Low: The convertible notes of $6.7 billion become due between 2028 and 2032. If the share price stays below the conversion prices, Strategy must repay them in cash or refinance them. ## Links - Page: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/MSTR/ - History of changes: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/MSTR/history/ - JSON with full history: https://picks.utilarium.app/data/company/MSTR.json > Picks is a personal record of stock picks. It gives general opinions about stocks, including a "Top pick" label. They are not tailored to your needs, goals or risk tolerance. Kevin is not a registered adviser and relies on the general-advice exemption in Canadian securities law (NI 31-103 s.8.25). Do your own research, or ask a registered adviser. Kevin may hold any stock on this site. Prices, intrinsic values and ratings can be delayed or wrong; check the original source. Full disclaimer: /disclaimer/.