# ArcelorMittal (MT) Sector: Steel and mining | Field | Value | |---|---| | Price | $65.68 | | Market cap | $50B | | Intrinsic value source | AI estimate | | Data as of | 2026-11-11 | | Next earnings | 2027-02-05 (estimate) | Analysts: Leaning bullish Picks: Research only Discount category: Far above intrinsic value ## In short ArcelorMittal trades above the AI estimate because investors pay for its high 2026 steel margins, and only lasting European trade protection with returns from its growth projects can support this price. ## Themes and gap - Themes: Tariffs and trade (trade-tariffs), Power and energy (power-energy), China and geopolitics (china-geopolitics) - Gap type: Slow (slow) - Why: Steel earnings move in cycles, so only several years of high European margins and project returns can show the value of the new trade measures and plants. ## About ArcelorMittal S.A. (ArcelorMittal) is one of the world's largest steel and mining companies. It makes flat, long and tubular steel products in North America, Brazil and Europe, and it owns joint ventures such as AM/NS India. It mines iron ore in Canada, Liberia, Brazil and Mexico. Its segments are North America, Brazil, Europe, Sustainable Solutions, Mining and Others. In 2025, revenues were $61.4 billion and crude steel production was 55.6 million tonnes. Sales were $16.5 billion in Q3 2026. The company is based in Luxembourg, and its shares trade in New York, Amsterdam, Paris, Luxembourg and Spain. The shares in New York are New York Registry Shares, not American depositary receipts: one share in New York is one ordinary share. Aditya Mittal is Chief Executive Officer. ## Thesis ArcelorMittal trades above the AI estimate because investors pay for its high steel margins in 2026, but it is a cyclical steel maker whose earnings move with steel prices, energy costs and imports. EBITDA per tonne was $155 in Q3 2026, well above its historical average, with help from new European Union trade measures and new plants. These margins may not last through the cycle, and there are risks in Ukraine, in European energy costs and in large capital spending. For the price to hold, three things must be true. The European tariff rate quota, in force from July 1, 2026, and the carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) must keep imports low and steel prices above the higher costs. The strategic projects must add about $1.8 billion of EBITDA potential as planned, with the Liberian iron ore expansion at full capacity. And the company must keep its dividends and share repurchases while net debt falls from $10.3 billion. The Q4 2026 report, expected in February 2027, with the project update and the outlook for 2027, is the next test. ## Checkpoints - Nov 5, 2026: Q3 2026 results: European margins. Status: Passed. Watch: EBITDA per tonne of $150 or more with stable European shipments passes; a fall below $130 fails. Outcome: EBITDA per tonne was $155, and European flat steel shipments rose from Q2 against the usual seasonal fall. - Feb 5, 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 results, project update and 2027 outlook. Status: Pending. Watch: Lower net debt after the working capital release and higher European shipments pass; net debt above $10.3 billion fails. - May 2027 (estimate): Q1 2027 results: full effect of the European trade measures. Status: Pending. Watch: European EBITDA per tonne above its 2026 level passes; a lower level fails. ## Valuation The intrinsic value for ArcelorMittal is an AI estimate from November 11, 2026. It is not an analyst's value. An AI research agent calculated it from ArcelorMittal's filings. The company reports in U.S. dollars, so the estimate needs no exchange rate. The shares on the New York Stock Exchange are New York Registry Shares. The Form 20-F for 2025 (March 6, 2026) says that the company has no American depositary receipts and that Citibank, N.A. keeps its New York share register, so one share in New York is one ordinary share. The method is a multiple of 2027 adjusted EPS. The Q3 2026 results (6-K, November 5, 2026) give EBITDA of $2,023 million, or $155 per tonne, adjusted net income of $868 million, adjusted basic EPS of $1.15 for the quarter and $2.80 for the first nine months, 753 million weighted average shares, net debt of $10.3 billion, equity attributable to the equity holders of the parent of $54,123 million, capital spending guidance of $4.5 billion to $5.0 billion for 2026 and about $1.8 billion of EBITDA potential from strategic projects. The Q2 2026 results (6-K, July 30, 2026) give the European Union tariff rate quota in force from July 1, 2026 and a quarterly base dividend of $0.15 per share. Adjusted EPS is after interest, so the estimate makes no debt adjustment. The 2027 EPS and the multiples are assumptions. The low case assumes lower steel prices and weaker trade protection, with 2027 adjusted EPS of $3.75, at 8 times. It gives $30.00 per share. The base case assumes that European margins hold and the projects add EBITDA, with adjusted EPS of $5.00, at 9.5 times. It gives $47.50 per share. The high case assumes strong European prices and the full EBITDA from the projects, with adjusted EPS of $6.25, at 10.5 times. It gives $65.63 per share. The estimate assumes weights of 25%, 50% and 25%. The weighted intrinsic value is $47.66 per share. As a check, the base case is about 0.66 times equity of $71.88 per share on 753 million shares. ArcelorMittal has large plants, its own iron ore mines and joint ventures in growing markets such as India. But steel is a commodity, many rivals make similar products, and profits depend on prices and on trade measures that can change. The estimate does not expect an advantage that lasts 10 years or more. As of 2026-11-11. Sources: - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1243429/000124342926000103/a3q26earningsrelease.htm - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1243429/000124342926000072/a2q26earningsrelease.htm - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1243429/000124342926000020/mt-20251231.htm ## Balance sheet - Cash: $3.2B - Debt: $13.6B - Net debt: $10.4B - Debt due within 12 months: $1.7B ArcelorMittal funds its business with bonds, commercial paper, bank loans and cash flow. At September 30, 2026, gross debt was $13,565 million and cash and cash equivalents were $3,191 million, so net debt was $10.3 billion, up from $9.5 billion at June 30, 2026. Debt due within 12 months was $1,715 million, and the average debt maturity was 8.0 years. Liquidity was $8.7 billion. Equity attributable to the equity holders of the parent was $54,123 million. Net debt rose because of a working capital investment of $2.5 billion in the first nine months, which the company expects to largely reverse in Q4 2026. In the first nine months of 2026, ArcelorMittal paid dividends of $341 million to its shareholders and bought back shares for $760 million. The base annual dividend is $0.60 per share, paid in four installments. As of 2026-09-30. Sources: - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1243429/000124342926000103/a3q26earningsrelease.htm - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1243429/000124342926000020/mt-20251231.htm ## Dividends - Dividend yield: 0.7% (last 12 months, at the current price) - Paid per share, last 12 months: $0.45 (3 payments) - Current annual rate: $0.60 ($0.15 x 4 a year) - Latest ex-dividend date: 2026-08-07, $0.15 per share - Growth from 2015 to 2025: 1.9% a year Dividends per share by year: 2016: $0.00, 2017: $0.00, 2018: $0.10, 2019: $0.20, 2020: $0.00, 2021: $0.30, 2022: $0.38, 2023: $0.44, 2024: $0.50, 2025: $0.55. Source: company filings and market data, read on 2026-11-13. ## Recent events - 2026-11-09: ArcelorMittal said that Brad Davey, Executive Vice President and Head of Corporate Business Optimisation, will retire on January 1, 2027. Three other executives will take over his functions. - 2026-11-05: ArcelorMittal reported Q3 2026 results. EBITDA rose 34% from a year earlier to $2.0 billion, or $155 per tonne. The net loss was $391 million after impairment and exceptional charges of $1,145 million for the idling of ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih, and adjusted net income was $868 million, or $1.15 per share. Net debt rose to $10.3 billion because of a working capital investment that the company expects to largely reverse in Q4 2026. - 2026-09-25: ArcelorMittal said that it can no longer operate ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih in Ukraine safely after multiple missile strikes, and it idled the operations. - 2026-07-30: ArcelorMittal reported Q2 2026 results, with EBITDA of $2.1 billion, or $155 per tonne, and net income of $0.7 billion, or $0.90 per share. It said that shareholder returns in 2026 will be more than its policy minimum, because it uses the proceeds from a partial sale of its Vallourec stake for share repurchases. - 2026-07-01: The new European Union tariff rate quota for steel imports came into force. ArcelorMittal later brought all of its European blast furnaces back into operation. ## Latest news and filings - Next earnings: 2027-02-05 (expected; the company has not confirmed it) | Filed | Form | Headline | Period end | XBRL document | Link | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026-07-31 | 6-K | Interim report for the period ended Jun 30, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | mt-20260630 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1243429/000124342926000075/mt-20260630.htm | | 2026-03-06 | 20-F | Annual report for the period ended Dec 31, 2025 | 2025-12-31 | mt-20251231 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1243429/000124342926000020/mt-20251231.htm | | 2025-08-01 | 6-K | Interim report for the period ended Jun 30, 2025 | 2025-06-30 | mt-20250630 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1243429/000124342925000067/mt-20250630.htm | | 2025-03-10 | 20-F | Annual report for the period ended Dec 31, 2024 | 2024-12-31 | mt-20241231 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1243429/000124342925000017/mt-20241231.htm | Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 1243429): https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001243429&type=&dateb=&owner=include&count=40 ## Risks - High: Steel and iron ore prices move in cycles. A fall in prices or demand would lower EBITDA quickly, as in past downturns. - Medium: Results in Europe depend on trade measures such as the tariff rate quota and the CBAM. Weaker measures or more imports of steel-intensive products would lower prices and plant use. - Medium: Higher energy and carbon costs in Europe lowered European results in Q3 2026, before steel prices adjusted. - Medium: ArcelorMittal idled its Ukrainian operations after missile strikes and recorded impairment and exceptional charges of $1,145 million and a deferred tax charge of $170 million in Q3 2026. War and politics also affect other countries where it operates. - Medium: Capital spending is $4.5 billion to $5.0 billion in 2026, including electric arc furnaces in Spain and France. Delays or higher costs would lower returns. ## Links - Page: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/MT/ - History of changes: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/MT/history/ - JSON with full history: https://picks.utilarium.app/data/company/MT.json > Picks is a personal record of stock picks. It gives general opinions about stocks, including a "Top pick" label. They are not tailored to your needs, goals or risk tolerance. Kevin is not a registered adviser and relies on the general-advice exemption in Canadian securities law (NI 31-103 s.8.25). Do your own research, or ask a registered adviser. Kevin may hold any stock on this site. Prices, intrinsic values and ratings can be delayed or wrong; check the original source. Full disclaimer: /disclaimer/.