# Nebius Group (NBIS)

Sector: AI cloud infrastructure

| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Price | $154.69 |
| Market cap | $39B |
| Intrinsic value source | Analysts |
| Data as of | 2026-11-13 |
| Next earnings | 2027-02-12 (estimate) |

Analysts: Bullish

Picks: Research only

Discount category: Close to intrinsic value

## In short

The market prices Nebius as a young AI cloud company that must borrow heavily to build the capacity it sold, and reaching its 2027 revenue outlook and a pre-tax breakeven without more share sales can lift its value.

## Themes and gap

- Themes: AI supplier (ai-supplier), High debt (leverage), Power and energy (power-energy)
- Gap type: Slow (slow)
- Why: Only several years of building and filling capacity, paid for without large share sales, can turn the contracts into profit.

## About

Nebius Group N.V. is an Amsterdam company that sells AI cloud services: GPU capacity, a software platform and a managed inference service (Token Factory) for companies that train and run AI models. Revenue was $980.8 million in Q3 2026, up 571% from $146.1 million, and the AI cloud business made about 99% of it. Annualized run-rate revenue was $6.4 billion at the end of September 2026, and remaining performance obligations were $38.7 billion. The group also owns Avride (autonomous vehicles and delivery robots) and TripleTen (education), and holds equity stakes in ClickHouse and Toloka. Nebius has more than 4 gigawatts (GW) of contracted power and expects 5 GW by the end of 2026. Arkady Volozh is founder and Chief Executive Officer. Nebius is a foreign private issuer: it files a Form 20-F each year and furnishes its results on Form 6-K. The pick is the Class A share on NASDAQ (NBIS), in US dollars.

## Thesis

The market prices Nebius as a young AI cloud company that must borrow a very large amount to build the capacity it has already sold. Revenue grew 571% in Q3 2026 and the AI cloud business had an adjusted EBITDA margin of 53.2%. But capital spending was about $7.3 billion in the quarter, debt on the balance sheet was $14.2 billion at September 30, 2026, and Nebius signed a $3.5 billion bridge loan in October that matures in October 2027. Delays at third-party data centers moved some capacity into the first half of 2027, so Nebius now expects 2026 revenue at the low end of its $3.0 billion to $3.4 billion range. Customers pay in advance for much of the capacity: deferred revenue was $9.4 billion at September 30, and prepayments on deals signed in Q3 covered more than 100% of their capital spending. For the price to rise, Nebius must reach its 2027 outlook of $12 billion to $13 billion of revenue and a pre-tax breakeven in Q4 2027, bring its owned sites online on time, and pay for $40 billion to $45 billion of capital spending in 2027 without selling many more shares. The Q4 2026 report, which Nebius has not dated yet, is the next test. The gap can close only over several years of building and filling capacity.

## Checkpoints

- Nov 12, 2026: Q3 2026 results: revenue and annualized run-rate revenue. Status: Failed. Watch: Annualized run-rate revenue above $3.0 billion and a reaffirmed 2026 guidance passes; a cut to the guidance fails. Outcome: Annualized run-rate revenue rose to $6.4 billion, but Nebius now expects 2026 revenue at the low end of its range and the $7 billion run rate in February 2027, not December 2026.
- Feb 12, 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 results: 2026 revenue and 2027 outlook. Status: Pending. Watch: 2026 revenue of $3.0 billion or more and a confirmed 2027 outlook of $12 billion to $13 billion of revenue pass; revenue below $3.0 billion or a lower 2027 outlook fail.
- Q2 2027: Remaining New Jersey capacity for Microsoft. Status: Pending. Watch: Delivery of the remaining New Jersey tranches in Q2 2027 passes; a further delay fails.
- Q4 2027: Pre-tax breakeven. Status: Pending. Watch: A pre-tax result at breakeven or better in Q4 2027 passes; a pre-tax loss fails.

## Balance sheet

- Cash: $7.4B
- Debt: $14.2B
- Net debt: $6.8B
- Debt due within 12 months: $188M
- Last debt due: 2034

At September 30, 2026, Nebius had cash and cash equivalents of $7,425.6 million and restricted cash of $1,215.5 million. Debt on the balance sheet was $14,190.8 million, of which $187.5 million was current. It is convertible notes due from 2029 to 2034 and a secured term loan due by October 2030, with $16,478.0 million of principal payable at maturity. Deferred revenue was $9,409.2 million, mostly customer prepayments, and non-current operating lease liabilities were $1,768.8 million. Equity attributable to Nebius was $12,298.2 million. In the first nine months of 2026, net cash from operating activities was $4,231.1 million and purchases of property and equipment and intangible assets were $15,430.7 million. In Q3 2026, income from operations was $50.4 million and interest expense was $112.5 million. There were 292,902,405 shares outstanding. After that date, Nebius signed a $3.5 billion senior secured bridge facility with Citi that matures in October 2027. All amounts are in US dollars.

As of 2026-09-30.

Sources:

- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1513845/000110465926126238/nbis-ex99d2.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1513845/000110465926126238/nbis-ex99d1.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1513845/000110465926126008/tm2629571d1_ex99-1.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1513845/000110465926117978/tm2628078d1_6k.htm

## Dividends

Nebius Group does not pay a dividend.

Source: company filings and market data, read on 2026-11-13.

## Recent events

- 2026-11-12: Nebius reported Q3 2026 results. Revenue was $980.8 million, up 571%, and adjusted EBITDA was $465.8 million. The net loss from continuing operations was $37.5 million. Annualized run-rate revenue was $6.4 billion at the end of September. Delivery at some third-party sites moved into the first half of 2027, so Nebius now expects 2026 revenue at the low end of its $3.0 billion to $3.4 billion range and annualized run-rate revenue above $7 billion in February 2027, not December 2026. It expects 2026 capital spending of about $27 billion. For 2027 it expects revenue of $12 billion to $13 billion, capital spending of $40 billion to $45 billion and a pre-tax breakeven in Q4 2027.
- 2026-10-22: Nebius said that on October 17, 2026 it signed a $3.5 billion senior secured bridge term loan with Citibank. It bears interest at Term SOFR plus a margin that starts at 2.75% and rises to 3.50%, and it matures on October 16, 2027.
- 2026-10-01: Nebius bought Inferize, a company whose technology cuts the time that AI models need to load and scale in production. Its team and technology joined Token Factory.
- 2026-09-08: Palantir named Nebius its preferred sovereign AI infrastructure partner. After an integration period, Nebius compute and inference will be available to Palantir customers, and the two companies will work to bring new capacity online faster.
- 2026-08-24: Nebius closed an offering of $5.75 billion of convertible senior notes: $3.45 billion of 0.50% notes due 2030 and $2.3 billion of 4.50% notes due 2034. It also agreed to exchange $400 million of its 2029 notes and $400 million of its 2031 notes for about 15.8 million Class A shares.
- 2026-08-12: Nebius reported Q2 2026 results. Revenue was $582.3 million, up 454%, and adjusted EBITDA was $236.2 million. Four large AI cloud deals averaged more than $1 billion each, and Nebius raised its target for contracted power at the end of 2026 to 5 GW. It reaffirmed its 2026 guidance.

## Latest news and filings

- Next earnings: 2027-02-12 (expected; the company has not confirmed it)

| Filed | Form | Headline | Period end | XBRL document | Link |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2026-04-30 | 20-F | Annual report for the period ended Dec 31, 2025 | 2025-12-31 | nbis-20251231x20f | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1513845/000110465926052948/nbis-20251231x20f.htm |
| 2025-04-30 | 20-F | Annual report for the period ended Dec 31, 2024 | 2024-12-31 | nbis-20241231x20f | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1513845/000155837025005991/nbis-20241231x20f.htm |

Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 1513845): https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001513845&type=&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

## Risks

- High: Funding. Nebius spends far more than it earns: capital spending was about $7.3 billion in Q3 2026, and it expects $40 billion to $45 billion in 2027. It relies on prepayments, convertible notes, secured loans and share sales. A closed debt market or a fall in the share price would slow the build-out or force more dilution.
- High: Execution. Nebius must find power, sites, GPUs and staff for more than 1 GW of new capacity each year from 2027. Delivery at several third-party sites, including the rest of the New Jersey capacity for Microsoft, moved to the first half of 2027. More late supply or late construction would delay the revenue that its contracts promise.
- High: Customers and prices. Large contracts with a few customers, among them Microsoft and Meta, drive much of the growth. If AI spending slows or GPU prices fall, Nebius would have empty capacity and a heavy debt cost.
- Medium: Debt is rising. Debt on the balance sheet was $14,190.8 million at September 30, 2026, up from $8,545.7 million at June 30, 2026. Nebius then signed a $3.5 billion bridge loan that matures in October 2027.
- Medium: Dilution. Nebius sold Class A shares under its at-the-market program in 2026, with net proceeds of about $1.0 billion in Q3, and exchanged old convertible notes for about 15.8 million shares in August. Shares outstanding rose to 292,902,405 at September 30, 2026, and share-based pay was $196.5 million in the first nine months.

## Links

- Page: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/NBIS/
- History of changes: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/NBIS/history/
- JSON with full history: https://picks.utilarium.app/data/company/NBIS.json

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