# Nasdaq (NDAQ) Sector: Exchanges, market data, indexes and financial technology | Field | Value | |---|---| | Price | $110.02 | | Market cap | $61B | | Intrinsic value source | Analysts | | Data as of | 2026-11-11 | | Next earnings | 2027-01-22 (estimate) | Analysts: Bullish Picks: Research only Discount category: Far above intrinsic value ## In short Investors pay a premium for the fast growth of the software and index businesses of Nasdaq, and only several years of double-digit growth in recurring revenue and EPS can earn it. ## Themes and gap - Themes: Regulation and courts (regulation-legal), Interest rates (interest-rates) - Gap type: Slow (slow) - Why: Only several years of double-digit growth in recurring revenue and EPS can earn the premium. ## About Nasdaq, Inc. runs stock and options exchanges and sells financial technology, market data, index licenses and listing services. It reports three segments. In Q3 2026, Capital Access Platforms had revenue of $641 million: Data and Listing Services $224 million, Index $286 million, and Workflow and Insights $131 million. Financial Technology had revenue of $529 million from Financial Crime Management Technology such as Verafin, Regulatory Technology such as AxiomSL and market surveillance, and Capital Markets Technology such as Calypso. Market Services, the trading business of its U.S. and European exchanges, had net revenue of $309 million after rebates and fees. Net revenue was $1,481 million in Q3 2026, and annualized recurring revenue (ARR) was $3,365 million. Exchange-traded products that track Nasdaq indexes had assets of $1.160 trillion at the end of Q3 2026. In 2025, net revenue was $5,249 million. The company's shares trade on The Nasdaq Stock Market and on Nasdaq Texas. The head office is in New York. Adena Friedman is Chair and Chief Executive Officer. ## Thesis Nasdaq trades above its intrinsic value because investors pay for the fast growth of its recurring software and index revenue and for its high margins. In Q3 2026, Solutions revenue rose 17%, Index revenue rose 39% with record net inflows of $49 billion, and the non-GAAP operating margin was 57%. Non-GAAP diluted EPS rose 18% to $1.04. Index revenue depends on the assets in products that track Nasdaq indexes, and these assets can fall fast when stock prices fall. For the shares to earn this price, three things must be true. Financial Technology ARR must keep growing at about 15% or more, after organic growth of 18% in Q3 2026. Index inflows and the assets of these products must stay high. Expenses must stay within the 2026 non-GAAP guidance of $2.550 billion to $2.580 billion while Nasdaq invests in 23-hour trading and digital assets. The Q4 2026 report, expected in late January 2027, is the next test. A fall in stock markets or slower FinTech sales can make the premium hard to keep. ## Checkpoints - Oct 22, 2026: Q3 2026 results. Status: Passed. Watch: Solutions revenue growth of 10% or more and a non-GAAP operating margin of 55% or more pass; lower growth or margin fails. Outcome: Solutions revenue rose 17%, and the non-GAAP operating margin was 57%. - Dec 6, 2026: Start of 23-hour trading on The Nasdaq Stock Market. Status: Pending. Watch: A start on December 6, 2026 without large outages passes; a delay or a large outage fails. - Jan 22, 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 results and 2027 expense guidance. Status: Pending. Watch: FinTech ARR growth of 15% or more and 2027 expense growth below revenue growth pass; slower ARR growth fails. ## Balance sheet - Cash: $516M - Debt: $8.7B - Net debt: $8.2B - Undrawn credit line: $1.5B, to June 2031 - Debt due within 12 months: $269M - Last debt due: 2063 At September 30, 2026, cash and cash equivalents were $365 million and short-term investments $151 million. Total debt was $8,740 million: long-term debt of $8,471 million, mostly senior unsecured notes due from 2028 to 2063, and short-term debt of $269 million of commercial paper. Nasdaq repaid the $431 million of notes due in 2026. On June 30, 2026, it signed a new $1.5 billion five-year revolving credit facility, with a financial covenant that limits the leverage ratio to 3.75 to 1. Default funds and margin deposits of $2,530 million belong to clearing members and are both an asset and a liability. In the first nine months of 2026, net cash provided by operating activities was $1,921 million and purchases of property and equipment $199 million. Nasdaq paid dividends of $500 million and repurchased common stock for $1,226 million, and $2.2 billion of the repurchase authorization was left at September 30, 2026. There were 554,962,751 shares on October 16, 2026. The quarterly dividend is $0.31 per share. As of 2026-09-30. Sources: - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1120193/000112019326000020/ndaq-20260930.htm - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1120193/000112019326000017/earningsrelease3q26ex-991.htm - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1120193/000119312526292723/d146997d8k.htm ## Dividends - Dividend yield: 1.1% (last 12 months, at the current price) - Paid per share, last 12 months: $1.16 (4 payments) - Current annual rate: $1.24 ($0.31 x 4 a year) - Payout ratio: 34% of the earnings of the last fiscal year (the year ended 2025-12-31) - Latest ex-dividend date: 2026-09-11, $0.31 per share - Growth from 2020 to 2025: 10.2% a year - Growth from 2015 to 2025: 13.3% a year Dividends per share by year: 2016: $0.4033, 2017: $0.4867, 2018: $0.5667, 2019: $0.6167, 2020: $0.6467, 2021: $0.7033, 2022: $0.78, 2023: $0.86, 2024: $0.94, 2025: $1.05. Source: company filings and market data, read on 2026-11-11. ## Recent events - 2026-10-26: Nasdaq elected Börje Ekholm, the former Chief Executive Officer of Ericsson and a former Chair of the Nasdaq board, to its Board of Directors from November 1, 2026. Holden Spaht, who joined the board after the Adenza purchase, will leave the board on December 31, 2026. - 2026-10-22: Nasdaq reported Q3 2026 results. Net revenue rose 13% to $1,481 million, ARR rose 12% to $3,365 million, and Index revenue rose 39% to $286 million. GAAP diluted EPS rose 31% to $0.96, and non-GAAP diluted EPS rose 18% to $1.04. Nasdaq returned $173 million in dividends and $323 million in share repurchases. It raised its 2026 non-GAAP operating expense guidance to $2.550 billion to $2.580 billion. Early in Q4 2026, it bought the rest of LeveL Markets, an alternative trading system. The Nasdaq Stock Market plans to start 23-hour trading on five days a week on December 6, 2026. - 2026-07-23: Nasdaq reported Q2 2026 results. Net revenue rose 15% to $1,500 million, and non-GAAP diluted EPS rose 25% to $1.07. GAAP diluted EPS was $0.89. Assets in exchange-traded products that track Nasdaq indexes passed $1 trillion, and Nasdaq listed SpaceX, the largest IPO in the history of an exchange. Nasdaq repaid a net $162 million of debt in the quarter. - 2026-06-30: Nasdaq signed a new $1.5 billion five-year revolving credit facility with its banks. It replaces the credit agreement of 2022 and can increase by up to $1.0 billion. - 2026-04-23: Nasdaq reported Q1 2026 results. Net revenue rose 14% to $1,407 million, and non-GAAP diluted EPS rose 22% to $0.96. GAAP diluted EPS was $0.91. Nasdaq repurchased shares for $548 million. The board increased the quarterly dividend to $0.31 per share from $0.27. - 2026-01-29: Nasdaq reported 2025 results. Net revenue rose 13% to $5,249 million, and Solutions revenue passed $4 billion for the first time. GAAP diluted EPS rose 60% to $3.09, and non-GAAP diluted EPS rose 24% to $3.48. ARR rose 10% to $3,051 million. ## Latest news and filings - Last earnings: 2026-10-22 (8-K: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1120193/000112019326000017/) - Next earnings: 2027-01-22 (expected; the company has not confirmed it) | Filed | Form | Headline | Period end | XBRL document | Link | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026-10-26 | 8-K | Change of directors or officers | | | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1120193/000119312526431976/d285447d8k.htm | | 2026-10-22 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Sep 30, 2026 | 2026-09-30 | ndaq-20260930 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1120193/000112019326000020/ndaq-20260930.htm | | 2026-10-22 | 8-K | Earnings release and Investor disclosure | | ndaq-20261022 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1120193/000112019326000017/ | | 2026-07-23 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Jun 30, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | ndaq-20260630 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1120193/000112019326000013/ndaq-20260630.htm | | 2026-07-23 | 8-K | Earnings release and Investor disclosure | | ndaq-20260723 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1120193/000112019326000011/ | | 2026-07-01 | 8-K | New material agreement and End of a material agreement | | | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1120193/000119312526292723/d146997d8k.htm | | 2026-06-16 | 8-K | Shareholder vote results | | | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1120193/000119312526272736/d154523d8k.htm | | 2026-04-24 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Mar 31, 2026 | 2026-03-31 | ndaq-20260331 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1120193/000162828026027105/ndaq-20260331.htm | | 2026-04-23 | 8-K | Earnings release and Investor disclosure | | | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1120193/000119312526171829/ | | 2026-02-12 | 10-K | Annual report for the period ended Dec 31, 2025 | 2025-12-31 | ndaq-20251231 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1120193/000162828026007703/ndaq-20251231.htm | Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 1120193): https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001120193&type=&dateb=&owner=include&count=40 ## Risks - Medium: Index, listings and trading revenue depend on stock prices, trading volumes and IPOs. A fall in stock markets can reduce the assets in products that track Nasdaq indexes and the fees that these products pay. - Medium: Other exchanges and off-exchange venues compete for listings and trades, and new exchanges can take market share. Trading rebates and fees can change when competition increases. - Medium: Nasdaq runs regulated exchanges and clearing houses in the United States and Europe. New rules from the SEC or European regulators on market structure, fees or data can lower revenue or raise costs. - Low: Financial Technology sales depend on large bank and broker clients. Slower bank spending or a failed product launch can slow ARR growth, which investors watch closely. - Low: An outage or a cyberattack on its trading systems or software can cause losses, fines and damage to its reputation. The start of 23-hour trading increases the hours that the systems must run. ## Links - Page: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/NDAQ/ - History of changes: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/NDAQ/history/ - JSON with full history: https://picks.utilarium.app/data/company/NDAQ.json > Picks is a personal record of stock picks. It gives general opinions about stocks, including a "Top pick" label. They are not tailored to your needs, goals or risk tolerance. Kevin is not a registered adviser and relies on the general-advice exemption in Canadian securities law (NI 31-103 s.8.25). Do your own research, or ask a registered adviser. Kevin may hold any stock on this site. Prices, intrinsic values and ratings can be delayed or wrong; check the original source. Full disclaimer: /disclaimer/.