# Newmont (NEM)

Sector: Gold mining

| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Price | $125.16 |
| Market cap | $130B |
| Intrinsic value source | Analysts |
| Data as of | 2026-11-10 |
| Next earnings | 2027-02-18 (estimate) |

Analysts: Very bullish

Picks: Research only

Discount category: Far above intrinsic value

## In short

Newmont trades at a premium because investors pay for high gold prices and large buybacks, and a gold price that stays high with costs under control in 2027 can earn it.

## Themes and gap

- Themes: Interest rates (interest-rates)
- Gap type: Can close (closable)
- Why: The Q4 2026 report with 2027 guidance expected in mid-February 2027 and the Red Chris investment decision in early 2027 are dated tests, but the gold price decides most of the result.

## About

Newmont is one of the largest gold mining companies in the world. It also produces copper, silver, zinc and lead. Its main mines are in Australia (Boddington, Tanami and Cadia), Papua New Guinea (Lihir), Ghana (Ahafo), Mexico (Peñasquito), Peru (Yanacocha), Argentina (Cerro Negro), Suriname (Merian) and Canada (Brucejack and Red Chris, where it owns 70%). It owns 38.5% of Nevada Gold Mines, a joint venture that Barrick operates. It also owns 40% of Pueblo Viejo and 32% of Lundin Gold. For 2026, it expects to produce about 5.26 million ounces of attributable gold. In Q3 2026, its average realized gold price was $4,317 per ounce. The shares trade on the New York Stock Exchange, and also in Australia and Papua New Guinea.

## Thesis

Newmont trades at a premium because investors pay for high gold prices and for large returns of cash. The average realized gold price was $4,546 per ounce in the first nine months of 2026, and free cash flow was $7.3 billion. Newmont cut its share count by more than 115 million shares, about 10%, since February 2024, and it holds net cash of $3.2 billion. For the premium to be earned, three things must be true. The gold price must stay high: the company says that each $100 per ounce changes revenue by about $505 million a year, and its 2026 guidance assumes $4,500 per ounce. Costs must stay under control, but the company expects unit costs to rise in 2027 from inflation, diesel, a stronger Australian dollar and lower co-product credits. Production must grow by a low-to-mid single-digit percentage in 2027 as planned, and the Red Chris Block Cave project must start with a sound investment case. The Q4 2026 report with 2027 guidance, expected in mid-February 2027, and the Red Chris investment decision in early 2027 give the next tests. If the gold price falls back, the premium can shrink fast.

## Checkpoints

- Feb 18, 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 results and 2027 guidance. Status: Pending. Watch: About 1.37 million ounces in Q4 2026, 2026 AISC near $1,520 per ounce and 2027 guidance with production growth pass; missed production or a large cost rise fails.
- Q1 2027 (estimate): Red Chris Block Cave investment decision. Status: Pending. Watch: A full-funds decision with a final grant from Canada and costs close to the feasibility study pass; a delay or a higher cost estimate fails.

## Balance sheet

- Cash: $8.8B
- Debt: $5.1B
- Net cash: $3.7B
- EBITDA, last 12 months: $17.4B
- Undrawn credit line: $4.0B

Newmont has more cash than debt. At September 30, 2026, cash and cash equivalents were $8.8 billion, debt was $5.1 billion and lease and other financing obligations were $497 million, so net cash was $3.2 billion. Total liquidity was $12.8 billion, including $4.0 billion available on a revolving credit facility. These balances are before the payment of $1.95 billion to Barrick under the amended Nevada Gold Mines agreement, which Newmont expects to pay in Q4 2026. Adjusted EBITDA was $17.4 billion over the 12 months to September 30, 2026 (a calculation from the release). Newmont targets net cash of $1 billion, plus or minus $2 billion, and a minimum cash balance of $5 billion. Reclamation and remediation liabilities were $6.1 billion.

As of 2026-09-30.

Sources:

- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1164727/000116472726000041/newmontq32026earningsrelea.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1164727/000110465926095968/tm2623048d1_8k.htm

## Dividends

- Dividend yield: 0.8% (last 12 months, at the current price)
- Paid per share, last 12 months: $1.03 (4 payments)
- Current annual rate: $1.04 ($0.26 x 4 a year)
- Payout ratio: 16% of the earnings of the last fiscal year (the year ended 2025-12-31)
- Latest ex-dividend date: 2026-09-03, $0.26 per share
- Growth over the last 5 years: -12.9% a year
- Growth over the last 10 years: 26.3% a year

Dividends per share by year: 2016: $0.125, 2017: $0.25, 2018: $0.56, 2019: $1.44, 2020: $1.04, 2021: $2.20, 2022: $2.20, 2023: $1.60, 2024: $1.00, 2025: $1.00.

Source: company filings and market data, read on 2026-11-09.

## Recent events

- 2026-10-22: Newmont reported Q3 2026 results. It produced 1.30 million attributable gold ounces at an AISC of $1,454 per ounce, and the realized gold price was $4,317 per ounce. Adjusted net income was $2.20 per diluted share, and free cash flow was $1.9 billion. Production at Cadia rose after a seismic event in April 2026. Newmont improved its 2026 guidance for AISC to $1,520 per ounce, said that 2027 production should grow by a low-to-mid single-digit percentage and expects a Red Chris investment decision in early 2027. It declared a dividend of $0.26 per share.
- 2026-08-10: Newmont and Barrick amended the Nevada Gold Mines joint venture agreement and settled all their disputes about it. Barrick will contribute its Fourmile project and Newmont its Fiberline and Mike projects. Newmont will pay Barrick $1.95 billion in cash, which it expects to pay in Q4 2026.
- 2026-07-23: Newmont reported Q2 2026 results. It produced 1.29 million attributable gold ounces, and free cash flow was a record $2.2 billion for a second quarter. It received provincial approvals in British Columbia for the Red Chris Block Cave project. In July 2026, the Government of Canada announced a contribution of CAD$500 million to the project.
- 2026-04-23: Newmont reported Q1 2026 results with record free cash flow of $3.1 billion and a realized gold price of $4,900 per ounce. After it completed its earlier buyback programs, its board approved a new share repurchase program of $6.0 billion.
- 2026-02-19: Newmont reported Q4 2025 results and gave 2026 guidance. For 2025, adjusted net income was $6.89 per diluted share and free cash flow was $7.3 billion.

## Latest news and filings

- Last earnings: 2026-10-22 (8-K: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1164727/000116472726000041/)
- Next earnings: 2027-02-18 (expected; the company has not confirmed it)

| Filed | Form | Headline | Period end | XBRL document | Link |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2026-10-22 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Sep 30, 2026 | 2026-09-30 | nem-20260930 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1164727/000116472726000043/nem-20260930.htm |
| 2026-10-22 | 8-K | Earnings release |  | nem-20261022 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1164727/000116472726000041/nem-20261022.htm |
| 2026-08-20 | 8-K | Change of directors or officers |  |  | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1164727/000110465926099237/tm2623668d1_8k.htm |
| 2026-08-13 | 8-K | New material agreement and Investor disclosure |  |  | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1164727/000110465926095968/tm2623048d1_8k.htm |
| 2026-07-23 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Jun 30, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | nem-20260630 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1164727/000116472726000036/nem-20260630.htm |
| 2026-07-23 | 8-K | Earnings release |  | nem-20260723 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1164727/000116472726000034/nem-20260723.htm |
| 2026-06-15 | 8-K | Change of directors or officers and Investor disclosure |  |  | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1164727/000110465926074137/tm2617970d1_8k.htm |
| 2026-05-13 | 8-K | Shareholder vote results |  |  | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1164727/000110465926060260/tm2614426d1_8k.htm |
| 2026-04-28 | 8-K | Change of directors or officers |  |  | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1164727/000110465926050355/tm2612965d1_8k.htm |
| 2026-04-23 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Mar 31, 2026 | 2026-03-31 | nem-20260331 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1164727/000116472726000019/nem-20260331.htm |

Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 1164727): https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001164727&type=&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

## Risks

- High: Profit depends on the gold price. The company says that each $100 per ounce changes revenue by about $505 million a year. The realized price fell from $4,900 per ounce in Q1 2026 to $4,317 in Q3 2026.
- Medium: Newmont expects unit costs to rise in 2027 because of inflation, higher diesel prices, a stronger Australian dollar and lower silver, lead and zinc output at Peñasquito.
- Medium: Mines can stop or slow. A seismic event at Cadia in April 2026 cut output, and El Niño conditions can lower water supply and production at Lihir.
- Medium: Development capital is expected to rise by about $500 million in 2027 for the Lihir Nearshore Barrier and Red Chris Block Cave. Large underground projects can cost more and take longer than planned; Red Chris commercial production is targeted for 2033.
- Low: Many mines are in countries with changing tax and mining rules, such as Papua New Guinea, Ghana, Peru, Mexico, Argentina and Suriname.

## Links

- Page: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/NEM/
- History of changes: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/NEM/history/
- JSON with full history: https://picks.utilarium.app/data/company/NEM.json

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