# Nike (NKE) Sector: Sportswear | Field | Value | |---|---| | Price | $37.15 | | Intrinsic value source | Analysts | | Data as of | 2026-10-29 | | Next earnings | 2026-12-17 (estimate) | Analysts: Mixed Picks: Top pick Discount category: Below intrinsic value ## In short The market prices Nike for a long turnaround with falling sales in China and its lifestyle brands, and only a return to revenue growth and higher margins from Pace savings can close the gap slowly. ## Themes and gap - Themes: Weak consumer (weak-consumer), China and geopolitics (china-geopolitics), Tariffs and trade (trade-tariffs) - Gap type: Slow (slow) - Why: Nike expects lower revenue in fiscal 2027 and Pace savings through fiscal 2031, so the next test is the Q2 fiscal 2027 report in December 2026, and recovery takes several years. ## About Nike designs and sells athletic footwear, apparel and equipment under the Nike and Jordan brands, and casual shoes under the Converse brand. It sells to retailers through wholesale and directly to consumers through Nike Direct, which includes its own stores and digital sales. Its geographic segments are North America, Europe, Middle East and Africa, Greater China, and Asia Pacific and Latin America. Revenue was $46.4 billion in fiscal 2026, which ended on May 31, 2026. The company is based near Beaverton, Oregon. ## Thesis The market prices Nike for a long turnaround with falling sales and low margins. Revenue was flat in fiscal 2026, and the company expects revenue to fall by a high single-digit percentage in fiscal 2027. Revenue in Greater China fell 26% at constant currency in Q1 fiscal 2027, Converse revenue fell 28%, and Nike Brand digital sales fell 13%. The company expects adjusted EPS of only $1.15 to $1.35 in fiscal 2027, against diluted EPS of $2.10 in fiscal 2026. The company says that more actions for Nike Sportswear and Jordan Brand continue after fiscal 2027. For the gap to close, three things must be true. North America and the performance business must keep growing, as they did in Q1 fiscal 2027. The declines in Greater China, Nike Sportswear and Converse must slow. The Pace program must deliver its savings of about $2.5 billion through fiscal 2031, so that margins rise again. The Q2 fiscal 2027 report, expected in December 2026, gives the next test. The fiscal 2028 outlook, expected in June 2027, shows if revenue can grow again. This is a turnaround of several years, so the gap can close only slowly. The main reason it may not close is that competitors keep market share that Nike lost. ## Checkpoints - Dec 17, 2026 (estimate): Q2 fiscal 2027 results: decline and margins. Status: Pending. Watch: A revenue decline in line with the high single-digit outlook, a smaller fall in Greater China and higher gross margin pass; a lower EPS outlook or faster declines in Greater China and Nike Direct fail. - Jun 2027 (estimate): Fiscal 2027 results and fiscal 2028 outlook. Status: Pending. Watch: A fiscal 2028 outlook for revenue growth and higher margins from Pace savings passes; an outlook for another year of lower revenue fails. ## Balance sheet - Cash: $8.4B - Debt: $7.9B - Net cash: $475M - Debt due within 12 months: $2.0B - Ratings: S&P A+, Moody's A2 Nike has a strong balance sheet. Cash and short-term investments were $8.37 billion at August 31, 2026, and debt was $7.89 billion, so cash was more than debt. Notes of $2.0 billion are due within one year. S&P rates the long-term debt A+, and Moody's rates it A2. Nike had no borrowings under its committed credit facilities or its $3 billion commercial paper program at August 31, 2026. In March 2026, it added a $1 billion 364-day credit facility that ends on March 5, 2027. Free cash flow was $2.18 billion in fiscal 2026: operating cash flow of $2.87 billion less capital spending of $684 million. Dividends were $2.4 billion in fiscal 2026, more than this free cash flow, and the quarterly dividend is $0.41 per share. Nike bought back only $123 million of stock in fiscal 2026. As of 2026-08-31. Sources: - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320187/000032018726000193/nke-20260831.htm - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320187/000032018726000184/q1fy27exhibit991er.htm - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320187/000032018726000076/q4fy26exhibit991er.htm - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320187/000032018726000020/nke-20260306.htm ## Dividends - Dividend yield: 4.4% (last 12 months, at the current price) - Paid per share, last 12 months: $1.64 (4 payments) - Current annual rate: $1.64 ($0.41 x 4 a year) - Payout ratio: 77% of the earnings of the last fiscal year (the year ended 2026-05-31) - Latest ex-dividend date: 2026-09-01, $0.41 per share - Growth over the last 5 years: 8.3% a year - Growth over the last 10 years: 9.9% a year Dividends per share by year: 2016: $0.66, 2017: $0.74, 2018: $0.82, 2019: $0.905, 2020: $1.01, 2021: $1.13, 2022: $1.255, 2023: $1.39, 2024: $1.51, 2025: $1.61. Source: company filings and market data, read on 2026-10-29. ## Recent events - 2026-10-01: Nike reported Q1 fiscal 2027 results. Revenue fell 4% to $11.2 billion, and diluted EPS was $0.48. Gross margin rose 0.6 points to 42.8%. North America revenue rose 2%, and Greater China revenue fell 22%. Nike announced Pace, a program that changes its operating model. It expects savings of about $2.5 billion through fiscal 2031 and pre-tax charges of about $1.0 billion. For fiscal 2027, Nike expects revenue to fall by a high single-digit percentage and adjusted EPS of $1.15 to $1.35. - 2026-09-15: Nike increased its board to twelve directors and appointed Alexandre Arnault, Deputy Chief Executive Officer of Moët Hennessy, as a director. - 2026-06-30: Nike reported fiscal 2026 results. Revenue was $46.4 billion, flat on a reported basis, and diluted EPS fell 3% to $2.10. Q4 diluted EPS was $0.72, including a benefit of $0.52 per share from the expected recovery of $986 million of IEEPA tariffs. Nike Direct revenue fell 6% in the year, and Converse revenue fell 31%. - 2026-06-23: Nike named David Denton, the former Chief Financial Officer of Pfizer and Lowe's, as its Chief Financial Officer from August 2026. He replaced Matthew Friend. - 2026-03-31: Nike reported Q3 fiscal 2026 results. Revenue was $11.3 billion, flat on a reported basis, and gross margin fell 1.3 points to 40.2% because of higher tariffs. Diluted EPS fell 35% to $0.35. The quarter included pre-tax charges of about $300 million, mainly for employee severance. - 2025-12-18: Nike reported Q2 fiscal 2026 results. Revenue rose 1% to $12.4 billion, and wholesale revenue rose 8%. Nike Direct revenue fell 8%, gross margin fell 3.0 points to 40.6%, and diluted EPS fell 32% to $0.53. ## Latest news and filings - Last earnings: 2026-10-01 (8-K: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320187/000032018726000184/) - Next earnings: 2026-12-17 (expected; the company has not confirmed it) | Filed | Form | Headline | Period end | XBRL document | Link | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026-10-02 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Aug 31, 2026 | 2026-08-31 | nke-20260831 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320187/000032018726000193/nke-20260831.htm | | 2026-10-01 | 8-K | Earnings release and Exit or restructuring costs | | nke-20261001 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320187/000032018726000184/nke-20261001.htm | | 2026-09-16 | 8-K | Change of directors or officers and Investor disclosure | | nke-20260915 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320187/000032018726000170/nke-20260915.htm | | 2026-09-10 | 8-K | Change of directors or officers and Shareholder vote results | | nke-20260908 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320187/000032018726000143/nke-20260908.htm | | 2026-08-10 | 8-K | Change of directors or officers | | nke-20260804 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320187/000032018726000112/nke-20260804.htm | | 2026-07-15 | 10-K | Annual report for the period ended May 31, 2026 | 2026-05-31 | nke-20260531 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320187/000032018726000088/nke-20260531.htm | | 2026-06-30 | 8-K | Earnings release | | nke-20260630 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320187/000032018726000076/nke-20260630.htm | | 2026-06-23 | 8-K | Earnings release and Change of directors or officers | | nke-20260616 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320187/000032018726000070/nke-20260616.htm | | 2026-06-18 | 8-K | Change of directors or officers and Investor disclosure | | nke-20260615 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320187/000032018726000068/nke-20260615.htm | | 2026-04-01 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Feb 28, 2026 | 2026-02-28 | nke-20260228 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320187/000032018726000037/nke-20260228.htm | Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 320187): https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000320187&type=&dateb=&owner=include&count=40 ## Risks - High: Revenue in Greater China fell 26% at constant currency in Q1 fiscal 2027. The company reports lower store traffic, more discounts and high inventory in that market. Actions in Greater China continue after fiscal 2027. - High: Nike Sportswear, Jordan Brand and Converse still decline. Converse revenue fell 28% in Q1 fiscal 2027. If the lifestyle business does not recover, revenue and margins stay low. - Medium: The Pace program costs about $1.0 billion before tax and moves work to a new campus in India and to three geographies. A large change in the organization can disrupt the business or deliver less savings than planned. - Medium: Nike buys most of its products from factories in Asia. Tariffs lowered gross margin in fiscal 2026. New tariffs, or a recovery of IEEPA tariffs below the $986 million that Nike expects, can lower earnings. ## Links - Page: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/NKE/ - History of changes: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/NKE/history/ - JSON with full history: https://picks.utilarium.app/data/company/NKE.json > Picks is a personal record of stock picks. It gives general information only, not financial, investment, tax or legal advice, and not advice for your situation. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Kevin may hold any stock on this site. Prices, intrinsic values and ratings can be delayed or wrong; check the original source. Full disclaimer: /disclaimer/.