# Nomura (NMR)

Sector: Securities brokerage and investment banking

| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Price | $9.69 |
| Market cap | $28B |
| Intrinsic value source | Analysts |
| Data as of | 2026-11-12 |
| Next earnings | 2027-01-29 (estimate) |

Analysts: Very bullish

Picks: Research only

Discount category: Far above intrinsic value

## In short

Investors pay a premium for the high earnings of Nomura in strong markets, and only a return on equity that stays in the target range through weak markets can earn this price.

## Themes and gap

- Themes: Interest rates (interest-rates), High debt (leverage)
- Gap type: Slow (slow)
- Why: The gap can close only through several quarters of return on equity inside the target range, including quarters when trading is weak.

## About

Nomura Holdings, Inc. (Nomura) is a financial services group based in Tokyo, Japan. It was founded in 1925. It has four divisions: Wealth Management, Investment Management, Wholesale (Global Markets and Investment Banking) and Banking. In the six months that ended September 30, 2026, net revenue was ¥1,294.2 billion, income before income taxes was ¥359.5 billion and net income attributable to Nomura shareholders was ¥249.3 billion. Kentaro Okuda is President and Group CEO. Nomura files Form 20-F and Form 6-K with the SEC. It reports in Japanese yen under US GAAP, and its fiscal year ends on March 31. Its American Depositary Shares trade on the New York Stock Exchange in US dollars, and each ADS represents one share of common stock.

## Thesis

The price of Nomura depends on whether its return on equity (ROE) stays at 10% or more when markets are weak. Its earnings move with markets, because the Wholesale division trades and underwrites for clients. In Q2 of the year ending March 2027, Wholesale income before income taxes fell 51% from the record Q1, and group ROE was 10.9%. The first half ROE of 13.3% includes gains on the sale of real estate of about ¥56.0 billion. The balance sheet is also large: total assets were ¥67.5 trillion at September 30, 2026, which is 17.9 times equity. Nomura says that its stable revenue grew about 60% in the first half, because Wealth Management and Investment Management earn more from recurring fees. It gives no earnings forecast. For the price to hold or rise, three things must be true. Recurring revenue must keep growing, so that it covers more of the costs of Wealth Management than the 79% of Q2. ROE must stay in the target range of 10% to 12% or more in quarters when trading is weak. The capital ratios must stay well above the minimum while the balance sheet grows. The next tests are the Q3 report, expected in late January 2027, and the full-year report, expected in late April 2027.

## Checkpoints

- Jan 29, 2027 (estimate): Q3 results: Wholesale revenue and ROE. Status: Pending. Watch: ROE for the quarter stays at 10% or more with no real estate gain and recurring revenue keeps rising, and this passes; a lower ROE fails.
- Apr 2027 (estimate): Full-year results for the year ended March 2027. Status: Pending. Watch: Full-year ROE is inside or above the target range of 10% to 12% and the capital ratios stay well above the minimum, and this passes; a lower ROE fails.
- Jul 2027 (estimate): Q1 results for the year ending March 2028. Status: Pending. Watch: ROE stays in the target range after the first full quarter without the real estate gains of this year, and this passes; a lower ROE fails.

## Balance sheet

At September 30, 2026, Nomura had total assets of ¥67.5 trillion, up from ¥62.6 trillion at March 31, 2026. Total Nomura shareholders' equity was ¥3,775.3 billion. Gross leverage was 17.9 times and net leverage was 13.2 times. Long-term borrowings were ¥15.6 trillion and short-term borrowings were ¥2.0 trillion. The liquidity portfolio was ¥12.7 trillion, and the liquidity coverage ratio was 182.4%. The common equity Tier 1 ratio was 12.6% (preliminary) at September 30, 2026, against 13.2% at June 30, 2026 and 12.8% at March 31, 2026. The consolidated leverage ratio was 4.68% (preliminary), and the TLAC ratio was 27.7% of risk-weighted assets (preliminary). Nomura repurchased shares worth almost ¥60 billion under its authorization of January 30, 2026.

As of 2026-09-30.

Sources:

- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1163653/000119312526442521/d522871d6k.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1163653/000119312526432547/d154608d6k.htm

## Dividends

- The dividend data after 2025-03-31 is missing.
- Latest ex-dividend date: 2025-03-31, $0.238 per share
- Growth from 2020 to 2025: 38.9% a year

Dividends per share by year: 2016: $0.00, 2017: $0.00, 2018: $0.00, 2019: $0.00, 2020: $0.046, 2021: $0.00, 2022: $0.00, 2023: $0.00, 2024: $0.248, 2025: $0.238.

Source: company filings and market data, read on 2026-11-13.

## Recent events

- 2026-10-28: Nomura reported results for Q2 of the year ending March 2027. Net revenue was ¥607.5 billion, up 18% from a year before and down 12% from Q1. Income before income taxes was ¥148.0 billion, up 8% from a year before, and net income attributable to Nomura shareholders was ¥103.7 billion. ROE was 10.9%.
- 2026-10-28: Nomura declared a half-year dividend of ¥35 per share for holders of record at the end of September 2026. It is payable on December 1, 2026.
- 2026-10-28: Wealth Management had record net inflows of about ¥750 billion into assets that pay recurring revenue in Q2. Its recurring revenue cost coverage ratio rose to 79%. Investment Banking net revenue rose 26% from a year before.
- 2026-10-27: Nomura reported its capital ratios at June 30, 2026. The common equity Tier 1 ratio was 13.20%, and the consolidated leverage ratio was 4.77%.
- 2026-10-14: In its buyback report for September, Nomura showed that it had bought 46,861,200 shares for ¥59,999,879,300 under the authorization of January 30, 2026, which is almost the whole limit of ¥60 billion. It bought no shares in September.
- 2026-06-22: Nomura filed its Form 20-F for the year ended March 31, 2026. It states 2,901,337,224 shares of common stock outstanding at March 31, 2026, of which 79,924,681 were in ADSs.

## Latest news and filings

- Next earnings: 2027-01-29 (expected; the company has not confirmed it)

| Filed | Form | Headline | Period end | XBRL document | Link |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2026-06-22 | 20-F | Annual report for the period ended Mar 31, 2026 | 2026-03-31 |  | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1163653/000119312526277134/d116282d20f.htm |
| 2025-12-12 | 6-K | Interim report for the period ended Sep 30, 2025 | 2025-09-30 |  | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1163653/000119312525316773/d30123d6k.htm |
| 2025-06-23 | 20-F | Annual report for the period ended Mar 31, 2025 | 2025-03-31 |  | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1163653/000119312525144222/d909297d20f.htm |
| 2024-12-13 | 6-K | Interim report for the period ended Sep 30, 2024 | 2024-09-30 |  | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1163653/000119312524277793/d871250d6k.htm |

Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 1163653): https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001163653&type=&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

## Risks

- High: Earnings depend on markets. Trading and investment banking revenue can fall fast when markets fall or clients stop deals. In Q2, Wholesale income before income taxes fell 51% from Q1.
- Medium: The balance sheet is large. Total assets were ¥67.5 trillion and gross leverage was 17.9 times at September 30, 2026. Level 3 assets, which are hard to value, were ¥1.3 trillion. A large loss in trading or in private equity would cut capital.
- Medium: The first half profit includes gains on the sale of real estate of about ¥56.0 billion. ROE can fall back when such gains do not repeat.
- Low: The ADS price is in US dollars, and Nomura earns in yen. A weaker yen lowers the dollar value of each ADS, even when earnings in yen are the same.

## Links

- Page: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/NMR/
- History of changes: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/NMR/history/
- JSON with full history: https://picks.utilarium.app/data/company/NMR.json

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