# Nutrien (NTR)

Sector: Fertilizers and agriculture retail

| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Price | CA$102.14 |
| Market cap | CA$49B |
| Intrinsic value source | Analysts |
| Data as of | 2026-11-12 |
| Next earnings | 2027-02-17 (estimate) |

Analysts: Leaning bullish

Picks: Research only

Discount category: Close to intrinsic value

## In short

The market weighs how long high fertilizer prices last while Phosphate and Retail margins are weak, and steady potash sales with lower costs after the plant closures can lift its value.

## Themes and gap

- Themes: Power and energy (power-energy), Tariffs and trade (trade-tariffs)
- Gap type: Can close (closable)
- Why: The Q4 2026 report in February 2027 and the closure of White Springs in the second quarter of 2027 show whether margins and free cash flow improve.

## About

Nutrien Ltd. (Nutrien) is a Canadian company, based in Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, that makes crop nutrients and sells farm inputs. It has four segments. Retail sells crop nutrients, crop protection products, seed and services to farmers in North America, South America and Australia. Potash mines potash in Canada. Nitrogen makes ammonia, urea and other nitrogen products. Phosphate makes phosphate fertilizer and products for industry and animal feed. In the first nine months of 2026, sales were $22.9 billion, and adjusted EBITDA was $4.85 billion, of which Potash gave $1.97 billion, Nitrogen $1.61 billion and Retail $1.44 billion. Ken Seitz is President and Chief Executive Officer. Nutrien reports in US dollars under IFRS and files 40-F and 6-K reports with the SEC. The pick is the listing on the Toronto Stock Exchange, which trades in Canadian dollars. The shares also trade on the New York Stock Exchange in US dollars.

## Thesis

The price of Nutrien depends on how long high fertilizer prices last and on whether it can raise free cash flow after it shapes its portfolio. In the first nine months of 2026, adjusted EBITDA rose 2% to $4.85 billion, with record potash sales volumes and higher potash prices, but Q3 2026 adjusted EBITDA fell 8% to $1.31 billion as Phosphate and Nitrogen earned less. Phosphate adjusted EBITDA was only $8 million in Q3 2026 because of higher sulfur costs. Nutrien decided to keep the Aurora phosphate facility, to close White Springs in Q2 2027, and in October 2026 to shut down Trinidad Nitrogen indefinitely. For the price to hold or rise, three things must be true. Potash volumes and prices must stay at the current level, with global shipments of 75 to 79 million tonnes in 2027, as the company forecasts. Retail must recover margins after a weak Q3 2026. The closures must lower costs and capital spending, as the company expects, while debt of $10.8 billion stays under control. The next tests are the Q4 2026 report in February 2027 and the 2027 guidance.

## Checkpoints

- Feb 17, 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 results and 2027 guidance. Status: Pending. Watch: Retail adjusted EBITDA lands inside the revised range of $1.72 to $1.85 billion and potash volumes reach the guided 14.3 to 14.8 million tonnes, and this passes; a miss on both fails.
- Jun 2027 (estimate): White Springs shutdown and Phosphate margins. Status: Pending. Watch: White Springs closes in Q2 2027 and Phosphate adjusted EBITDA improves from the 2026 level, and this passes; a further fall fails.

## Balance sheet

At September 30, 2026, Nutrien had cash and cash equivalents of $919 million. Debt was $12,806 million: short-term debt of $1,972 million, mostly commercial paper, the current part of long-term debt of $1,420 million and long-term debt of $9,414 million. Lease liabilities were $1,312 million. Net debt, with leases and without the equity-method investments, was $13,199 million, against $11,318 million at December 31, 2025. Debt rose in the seasonal peak of working capital: receivables were $8,216 million at September 30, 2026 and $5,675 million at December 31, 2025. The company has total facilities of about $6.8 billion. In the first nine months of 2026, Nutrien paid dividends of $791 million and bought back $547 million of shares. At November 3, 2026, it had 474,130,694 common shares outstanding.

As of 2026-09-30.

Sources:

- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1725964/000119312526447554/d139721dex991.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1725964/000119312526447554/d139721dex993.htm

## Dividends

- Dividend yield: 3.0% (last 12 months, at the current price)
- Paid per share, last 12 months: CA$3.072 (4 payments)
- Current annual rate: CA$3.116 (CA$0.779 x 4 a year)
- Latest ex-dividend date: 2026-09-29, CA$0.779 per share
- Growth from 2020 to 2025: 4.6% a year

Dividends per share by year: 2016: CA$0.00, 2017: CA$0.00, 2018: CA$2.156, 2019: CA$2.327, 2020: CA$2.424, 2021: CA$2.316, 2022: CA$2.53, 2023: CA$2.836, 2024: CA$2.975, 2025: CA$3.032.

Source: company filings and market data, read on 2026-11-13.

## Recent events

- 2026-11-04: Nutrien reported Q3 2026 results. Net earnings were $288 million, or $0.60 per diluted share, against $0.96 a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA was $1.31 billion, against $1.43 billion. In the first nine months, adjusted EBITDA was $4.85 billion, and net earnings were $1.65 billion. It also bought back about $83 million of shares in Q4 up to November 3, 2026.
- 2026-11-04: Nutrien finished its review of strategic alternatives for its Phosphate business. It will keep the Aurora facility and the integrated upgrade facilities, after bids that it judged too low, and shut down White Springs in Q2 2027. It expects the closure to cut annual sustaining capital spending and lease payments by about $50 million.
- 2026-11-04: Nutrien revised its 2026 guidance. Retail adjusted EBITDA is now $1.72 to $1.85 billion, from $1.75 to $1.95 billion. Potash sales volumes are now 14.3 to 14.8 million tonnes. Capital spending is now $1.95 to $2.00 billion. The tax rate on adjusted net earnings is now 25.5% to 27.0%. It also declared a quarterly dividend of US$0.55 per share, payable on January 15, 2027.
- 2026-10-05: Nutrien said that it will shut down its Trinidad Nitrogen operations at Point Lisas indefinitely. It had stopped them in a controlled shutdown on October 23, 2025, because of port limits and a lack of reliable natural gas. It said that there is no impact on its 2026 Nitrogen sales volume guidance.
- 2026-05-29: In the first nine months of 2026, Nutrien issued $500 million of 4.850% senior notes due May 29, 2031 and $500 million of 5.350% senior notes due May 29, 2036.

## Latest news and filings

- Next earnings: 2027-02-17 (expected; the company has not confirmed it)

| Filed | Form | Headline | Period end | XBRL document | Link |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2026-02-27 | 40-F | Annual report for the period ended Dec 31, 2025 | 2025-12-31 |  | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1725964/000119312526081326/d56746d40f.htm |
| 2025-02-28 | 40-F | Annual report for the period ended Dec 31, 2024 | 2024-12-31 |  | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1725964/000119312525041502/d795438d40f.htm |

Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 1725964): https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001725964&type=&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

## Risks

- High: Earnings follow global prices of potash, nitrogen and phosphate. Q3 2026 adjusted EBITDA fell 8% from a year earlier, as Phosphate and Nitrogen earned less. Phosphate adjusted EBITDA was $8 million in Q3 2026, against $122 million a year earlier.
- Medium: Input costs can squeeze margins. Sulfur cost rose for Phosphate, and fuel costs rose for Retail. Natural gas cost fell to $2.18 per MMBtu in Q3 2026, but it can rise.
- Medium: Retail depends on weather and on farmers' credit. Q3 2026 Retail adjusted EBITDA fell 12%, with a shorter plant health season in North America and weather effects in Brazil. The company also says that credit for farmers in Brazil is limited.
- Medium: Debt is high and rises with seasonal working capital. Long-term debt, including the current part, was $10.8 billion at September 30, 2026, and short-term debt was $2.0 billion. Finance costs are guided to $0.70 to $0.75 billion for 2026.
- Medium: Plant closures bring costs and lost sales. White Springs is about 20% of Phosphate sales, and Trinidad Nitrogen and New Madrid are no longer in production.
- Low: Currency changes affect the value in Canadian dollars. Nutrien reports in US dollars, and the Toronto listing trades in Canadian dollars.

## Links

- Page: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/NTR/
- History of changes: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/NTR/history/
- JSON with full history: https://picks.utilarium.app/data/company/NTR.json

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