# Nucor (NUE) Sector: Steel and steel products | Field | Value | |---|---| | Price | $256.47 | | Market cap | $58B | | Intrinsic value source | AI estimate | | Data as of | 2026-11-11 | | Next earnings | 2027-01-26 (estimate) | Analysts: Bullish Picks: Research only Discount category: Far above intrinsic value ## In short Nucor trades above the AI estimate because investors pay for its strong 2026 steel earnings and new mills, and only high earnings after the current cycle can support this price. ## Themes and gap - Themes: Tariffs and trade (trade-tariffs), Power and energy (power-energy) - Gap type: Slow (slow) - Why: Steel earnings move in cycles, so only several years of high earnings through a full cycle can show the value of the new mills. ## About Nucor makes steel and steel products, and it is the largest recycler in North America. It melts scrap and direct reduced iron in electric arc furnaces and makes sheet, bars, structural steel and plate. Its steel products segment makes joists, deck, rebar, tubing, towers for utilities, metal buildings, overhead doors and other products. Its raw materials segment owns The David J. Joseph Company, which brokers and processes scrap, and makes direct reduced iron. Nucor has plants in the United States, Canada and Mexico. In Q3 2026, net sales were $11.25 billion, steel mills shipped 7.2 million tons and ran at 89% of capacity. Nucor is building a sheet mill in West Virginia, which made its first heat in September 2026. The shares trade on the New York Stock Exchange. The head office is in Charlotte, North Carolina. Leon Topalian is Chair and Chief Executive Officer. ## Thesis Nucor trades above the AI estimate because investors pay for its strong earnings in 2026, its record of profits through steel cycles and its new mills, but steel earnings move in cycles. Diluted EPS was $7.52 in 2025 and $14.06 in the first nine months of 2026, but it was $28.79 in 2022 and below $5 in most years before 2021. In 2026, demand was strong, prices rose and, with Section 232 tariffs in place, finished steel imports in the first nine months were about 13% lower than in 2025. For the shares to earn this price, three things must be true. Steel prices and the steel mills' use of capacity must stay high after the current cycle. The new West Virginia sheet mill must ramp up as planned, to 50% of its capacity by the end of 2027. And the investments of recent years, such as towers and structures for utilities, must raise earnings through the whole cycle. The Q4 2026 report, expected in late January 2027, is the next test. A recession, lower tariffs or more imports can lower steel prices fast. ## Checkpoints - Oct 26, 2026: Q3 2026 results: steel mills earnings. Status: Passed. Watch: EPS above Q2 2026 and steel mills use of capacity near 90% pass; lower EPS fails. Outcome: EPS rose to $5.80 from $5.04 in Q2 2026, and the steel mills ran at 89% of capacity. - Jan 26, 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 results and the 2027 outlook. Status: Pending. Watch: Q4 2026 EPS in line with or above Q3, as Nucor expects, passes; a clear fall fails. - Dec 2027 (estimate): West Virginia sheet mill ramp-up. Status: Pending. Watch: A run rate of 50% of capacity by the end of 2027, as planned, passes; a slower ramp-up fails. ## Valuation The intrinsic value for Nucor is an AI estimate from November 11, 2026. It is not an analyst's value. An AI research agent calculated it from Nucor's filings. The method is a multiple of normalized diluted EPS, because steel earnings move in cycles. The annual reports (Form 10-K) give net earnings attributable to Nucor from $721 million in 2020 to $7,607 million in 2022, and an average of about $2.92 billion a year from 2016 to 2025. The Form 10-Q for the quarter ended October 3, 2026 gives 226.7 million diluted shares for Q3 2026, so the average is about $12.88 per share at today's share count. It also gives diluted EPS of $14.06 for the first nine months of 2026. EPS is after interest, so the estimate makes no debt adjustment. The normalized EPS and the multiples are assumptions. The low case assumes weaker steel prices and more imports, with EPS of $11.00, at 12 times. It gives $132.00 per share. The base case assumes the 10-year average plus earnings from the new mills and products, with EPS of $14.00, at 15 times. It gives $210.00 per share. The high case assumes that tariffs and demand keep prices high, with EPS of $17.00, at 17 times. It gives $289.00 per share. The estimate assumes weights of 25%, 50% and 25%. The weighted intrinsic value is $210.25 per share. The estimate finds no lasting advantage. Nucor's electric arc furnaces, its own scrap and direct reduced iron supply, its scale and its downstream products give it low and flexible costs. But steel is a commodity, other producers also use electric arc furnaces and add capacity, and prices follow the cycle and trade policy. So the estimate does not expect the advantage to last 10 years. As of 2026-11-11. Sources: - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/73309/000119312526454565/nue-20261003.htm - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/73309/000119312526071575/nue-20251231.htm - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/73309/000119312526432117/d129328dex991.htm ## Balance sheet - Cash: $3.6B - Debt: $7.1B - Net debt: $3.5B - Undrawn credit line: $2.3B, to March 2030 - Debt due within 12 months: $709M - Ratings: S&P A- (stable outlook), Fitch A- (stable outlook), Moody's A3 (stable outlook) Nucor funds itself mainly with cash flow and long-term notes. At October 3, 2026, cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments were $3.64 billion. Short-term debt was $130 million, the current part of long-term debt and finance leases was $579 million, and long-term debt and finance leases due after one year were $6,384 million. The $2.25 billion revolving credit facility, which ends in March 2030, was undrawn. S&P, Fitch and Moody's rate Nucor A-, A- and A3 with stable outlooks. In the first nine months of 2026, free cash flow was about $2.7 billion, and Nucor returned about $1.36 billion to shareholders with dividends and share repurchases. Nucor expects capital expenditures of about $2.50 billion in 2026, against $3.42 billion in 2025. At October 3, 2026, there were 224,944,177 shares. The quarterly dividend is $0.56 per share. As of 2026-10-03. Sources: - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/73309/000119312526432117/d129328dex991.htm - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/73309/000119312526454565/nue-20261003.htm ## Dividends - Dividend yield: 0.9% (last 12 months, at the current price) - Paid per share, last 12 months: $2.24 (4 payments) - Current annual rate: $2.24 ($0.56 x 4 a year) - Payout ratio: 29% of the earnings of the last fiscal year (the year ended 2025-12-31) - Latest ex-dividend date: 2026-09-30, $0.56 per share - Growth from 2020 to 2025: 6.5% a year - Growth from 2015 to 2025: 4.0% a year Dividends per share by year: 2016: $1.503, 2017: $1.514, 2018: $1.54, 2019: $1.603, 2020: $1.614, 2021: $1.715, 2022: $2.01, 2023: $2.07, 2024: $2.17, 2025: $2.21. Source: company filings and market data, read on 2026-11-11. ## Recent events - 2026-10-26: Nucor reported Q3 2026 results. Net earnings were $1.32 billion, or $5.80 per diluted share, against $2.63 a year earlier. Net sales were $11.25 billion. Nucor expects Q4 2026 earnings to be generally in line with or modestly higher than Q3. The West Virginia sheet mill made its first heat in September 2026. - 2026-07-27: Nucor reported Q2 2026 results. Net earnings were $5.04 per diluted share, or $4.84 adjusted, without a gain from its investment in Helion, a fusion energy company. - 2026-04-27: Nucor reported Q1 2026 results, with net earnings of $3.23 per diluted share, against $0.67 a year earlier. - 2026-02-20: The board approved a new share repurchase program of up to $4.00 billion. At October 3, 2026, about $3.12 billion was still available. - 2026-01-26: Nucor reported 2025 results. Net earnings were $1.74 billion, or $7.52 per diluted share, and net sales were $32.49 billion. Nucor returned about $1.2 billion to shareholders in 2025. ## Latest news and filings - Last earnings: 2026-10-26 (8-K: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/73309/000119312526432117/) - Next earnings: 2027-01-26 (expected; the company has not confirmed it) | Filed | Form | Headline | Period end | XBRL document | Link | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026-11-10 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Oct 3, 2026 | 2026-10-03 | nue-20261003 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/73309/000119312526454565/nue-20261003.htm | | 2026-10-26 | 8-K | Earnings release and Investor disclosure | | | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/73309/000119312526432117/ | | 2026-08-12 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Jul 4, 2026 | 2026-07-04 | nue-20260704 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/73309/000119312526345891/nue-20260704.htm | | 2026-07-27 | 8-K | Earnings release and Investor disclosure | | | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/73309/000119312526318190/ | | 2026-05-19 | 8-K | Shareholder vote results | | | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/73309/000119312526230790/d45402d8k.htm | | 2026-05-13 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Apr 4, 2026 | 2026-04-04 | nue-20260404 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/73309/000119312526220778/nue-20260404.htm | | 2026-04-27 | 8-K | Earnings release and Investor disclosure | | | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/73309/000119312526182332/ | | 2026-03-03 | 8-K | Change of directors or officers | | | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/73309/000119312526086912/d94870d8k.htm | | 2026-02-25 | 10-K | Annual report for the period ended Dec 31, 2025 | 2025-12-31 | nue-20251231 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/73309/000119312526071575/nue-20251231.htm | | 2026-02-20 | 8-K | Change of directors or officers | | | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/73309/000119312526060448/d116401d8k.htm | Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 73309): https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000073309&type=&dateb=&owner=include&count=40 ## Risks - High: Steel prices and volumes move with the economy. In a recession, prices and the use of capacity can fall fast, as in 2009, 2015 and 2020, when diluted EPS was $2.36 or less. - Medium: Strong prices in 2026 depend partly on tariffs under Section 232. If the tariffs fall or the courts change them, imports can rise and prices can fall. - Medium: New mills take time to reach full output. The West Virginia sheet mill plans to reach only 50% of its capacity by the end of 2027, and start-up costs can be higher than planned. - Low: Scrap, direct reduced iron and electricity are large costs. A sharp rise in these costs can lower margins when steel prices do not rise at the same time. - Low: Other electric arc furnace producers also add capacity in the United States. More capacity can lower prices for sheet and other products. ## Links - Page: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/NUE/ - History of changes: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/NUE/history/ - JSON with full history: https://picks.utilarium.app/data/company/NUE.json > Picks is a personal record of stock picks. It gives general opinions about stocks, including a "Top pick" label. They are not tailored to your needs, goals or risk tolerance. Kevin is not a registered adviser and relies on the general-advice exemption in Canadian securities law (NI 31-103 s.8.25). Do your own research, or ask a registered adviser. Kevin may hold any stock on this site. Prices, intrinsic values and ratings can be delayed or wrong; check the original source. Full disclaimer: /disclaimer/.