# Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) Sector: Less-than-truckload freight | Field | Value | |---|---| | Price | $170.50 | | Market cap | $35B | | Intrinsic value source | Analysts | | Data as of | 2026-11-12 | | Next earnings | 2027-02-03 (estimate) | Analysts: Leaning bullish Picks: Research only Discount category: Pricey ## In short The market doubts that freight volume recovers while costs for fuel and benefits rise, and steady growth in tons per day with rising yield through 2027 can lift its value. ## Themes and gap - Themes: Weak consumer (weak-consumer), Power and energy (power-energy) - Gap type: Can close (closable) - Why: The Q4 2026 report in early February 2027 and the monthly updates show whether shipment volume recovers while yield keeps rising. ## About Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (Old Dominion) is one of the largest North American less-than-truckload (LTL) motor carriers. It is based in Thomasville, North Carolina. It moves freight that is too large for a parcel service and too small for a full truckload. It does this through one network of service centers, and it has no labor union. Its offers include regional, inter-regional and national LTL services, and expedited transport. In Q3 2026, it reported 99% on-time service and a cargo claims ratio of 0.1%. Revenue was $1,590.7 million in Q3 2026 and $4,479.4 million for nine months. Marty Freeman is President and Chief Executive Officer. The shares trade on Nasdaq in US dollars. ## Thesis The price of Old Dominion depends on whether yield gains can continue while shipment volumes recover. In Q3 2026, revenue rose 13.1% to $1,590.7 million, but LTL shipments per day fell 2.0% and LTL tons per day fell 0.1%. Revenue per hundredweight rose 13.3%, and 5.1% without fuel surcharges. The operating ratio, which is operating costs over revenue, improved by 280 basis points to 71.5%, and diluted EPS rose 28.9% to $1.65. Volume is now turning: tons per day rose 2.1% in October 2026, and the company says that demand improved in the quarter. For the price to hold or rise, three things must be true. Volume must keep recovering from the low of 2026, so that the network is used more. Yield must keep rising without a loss of service quality. Costs for employee benefits and fuel must not rise faster than revenue. The next tests are the Q4 2026 report in early February 2027 and the monthly operating updates in between. ## Checkpoints - Feb 3, 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 results: operating ratio and volume. Status: Pending. Watch: LTL tons per day rise from a year earlier and the operating ratio improves from the Q4 2025 level, and this passes; falling tons per day with a worse operating ratio fail. - May 2027 (estimate): Q1 2027 results: yield without fuel. Status: Pending. Watch: LTL revenue per hundredweight without fuel surcharges keeps rising at about the rate of Q3 2026, and this passes; a clear slowdown fails. ## Balance sheet At September 30, 2026, Old Dominion had cash and cash equivalents of $466.2 million, up from $120.1 million at December 31, 2025. Total debt was $20.0 million, which is the Series B senior notes at 3.10% that are due on May 4, 2027, down from $40.0 million at December 31, 2025. Nothing was drawn on its $400.0 million credit agreement, which matures in March 2028. Cash from operations was $1,115.8 million for nine months, and capital spending was $206.7 million. In the same period, the company used $400.6 million for share buybacks and paid $180.7 million in dividends. It had $1.15 billion left under its buyback authority. As of 2026-09-30. Sources: - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/878927/000087892726000033/odfl-20260930.htm - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/878927/000087892726000031/odfl-ex99_1.htm ## Dividends - Dividend yield: 0.7% (last 12 months, at the current price) - Paid per share, last 12 months: $1.15 (4 payments) - Current annual rate: $1.16 ($0.29 x 4 a year) - Payout ratio: 23% of the earnings of the last fiscal year (the year ended 2025-12-31) - Latest ex-dividend date: 2026-09-02, $0.29 per share - Growth from 2020 to 2025: 30.0% a year Dividends per share by year: 2016: $0.00, 2017: $0.1333, 2018: $0.1733, 2019: $0.2267, 2020: $0.3017, 2021: $0.40, 2022: $0.60, 2023: $0.80, 2024: $1.04, 2025: $1.12. Source: company filings and market data, read on 2026-11-13. ## Recent events - 2026-11-04: In its Q3 2026 10-Q, Old Dominion gave its October 2026 update. Revenue per day rose 22.5% from October 2025. LTL revenue per hundredweight rose 19.9%, and 6.6% without fuel surcharges. LTL tons per day rose 2.1%, and LTL shipments per day fell 1.2%. - 2026-10-28: Old Dominion reported Q3 2026 results. Revenue was $1,590.7 million, up 13.1%. Operating income was $452.6 million, and the operating ratio was 71.5%, against 74.3% a year earlier. Diluted EPS was $1.65, against $1.28. LTL revenue per hundredweight rose 13.3%, and LTL tons per day fell 0.1%. - 2026-10-22: Old Dominion declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.29 per share, payable on December 16, 2026. This is 3.6% more than the dividend paid in December 2025. - 2026-09-22: Old Dominion elected Worthing F. Jackman, a former Chief Executive Officer of Waste Connections, to its board. John D. Kasarda retired from the board on the same day. - 2026-09-03: Old Dominion gave its August 2026 update. Revenue per day rose 12.4%, and LTL tons per day fell 0.9%. LTL revenue per hundredweight without fuel surcharges rose 4.8% for the quarter to date. ## Latest news and filings - Last earnings: 2026-10-28 (8-K: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/878927/000087892726000031/) - Next earnings: 2027-02-03 (expected; the company has not confirmed it) | Filed | Form | Headline | Period end | XBRL document | Link | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026-11-04 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Sep 30, 2026 | 2026-09-30 | odfl-20260930 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/878927/000087892726000033/odfl-20260930.htm | | 2026-10-28 | 8-K | Earnings release | | odfl-20261028 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/878927/000087892726000031/ | | 2026-10-22 | 8-K | Other company news | | odfl-20261022 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/878927/000087892726000029/odfl-20261022.htm | | 2026-09-22 | 8-K | Change of directors or officers | | odfl-20260922 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/878927/000087892726000027/odfl-20260922.htm | | 2026-09-03 | 8-K | Investor disclosure | | odfl-20260903 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/878927/000087892726000025/odfl-20260903.htm | | 2026-08-05 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Jun 30, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | odfl-20260630 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/878927/000087892726000023/odfl-20260630.htm | | 2026-07-29 | 8-K | Earnings release | | odfl-20260729 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/878927/000087892726000021/ | | 2026-07-23 | 8-K | Other company news | | odfl-20260723 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/878927/000087892726000019/odfl-20260723.htm | | 2026-06-03 | 8-K | Investor disclosure | | odfl-20260603 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/878927/000087892726000015/odfl-20260603.htm | | 2026-05-21 | 8-K | Shareholder vote results and Other company news | | odfl-20260520 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/878927/000087892726000013/odfl-20260520.htm | Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 878927): https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000878927&type=&dateb=&owner=include&count=40 ## Risks - High: Volumes depend on the freight economy. LTL tons per day fell 4.0% in the first nine months of 2026. A weak economy or new tariffs can cut shipments, and fixed costs for the network do not fall with volume. - Medium: Fuel costs and surcharges move revenue and costs. The average cost of diesel per gallon rose 68.4% in Q3 2026, and the company does not hedge diesel. Fuel surcharges lifted revenue per hundredweight by 13.3%, against 5.1% without them. - Medium: Employee benefit costs are rising. They were 42.8% of salaries and wages in Q3 2026, against 39.7% a year earlier, because of higher health claim costs and retirement plan costs that follow net income. - Medium: Growth needs land and service centers. The company plans about $380 million of capital spending for 2026, of which about $180 million is for service centers, and suitable real estate can be scarce. - Low: Union organizing or new labor rules could raise costs. The company runs a union-free network. - Low: Strong competition in LTL can limit price increases if industry volume stays weak. ## Links - Page: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/ODFL/ - History of changes: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/ODFL/history/ - JSON with full history: https://picks.utilarium.app/data/company/ODFL.json > Picks is a personal record of stock picks. It gives general opinions about stocks, including a "Top pick" label. They are not tailored to your needs, goals or risk tolerance. Kevin is not a registered adviser and relies on the general-advice exemption in Canadian securities law (NI 31-103 s.8.25). Do your own research, or ask a registered adviser. Kevin may hold any stock on this site. Prices, intrinsic values and ratings can be delayed or wrong; check the original source. Full disclaimer: /disclaimer/.