# ONEOK (OKE) Sector: Midstream: NGLs, refined products, crude oil and natural gas | Field | Value | |---|---| | Price | $87.37 | | Market cap | $55B | | Intrinsic value source | Analysts | | Data as of | 2026-11-11 | | Next earnings | 2027-01-27 (estimate) | Analysts: Leaning bullish Picks: Research only Discount category: Below intrinsic value ## In short The market prices ONEOK on its steady fee-based cash flow and waits to see what the Apollo investment and the Brazos purchase give common shareholders. ## Themes and gap - Themes: Power and energy (power-energy), High debt (leverage) - Gap type: Can close (closable) - Why: The Q4 2026 report and the 2027 guidance show whether the Brazos assets and lower debt raise EPS after Apollo's share. ## About ONEOK is a large midstream company in the United States. It gathers and processes natural gas, and it transports, fractionates and stores natural gas liquids (NGLs). It also transports and stores refined products and crude oil, and it owns natural gas pipelines. It reports four segments. In Q3 2026, adjusted EBITDA was $718 million in Natural Gas Liquids, $685 million in Refined Products and Crude, $563 million in Natural Gas Gathering and Processing and $231 million in Natural Gas Pipelines. Its systems serve the Permian Basin, the Rocky Mountain region and the Mid-Continent and connect to the Gulf Coast. In September 2026, funds managed by Apollo invested $9 billion for 13% of ONEOK Holdings, the subsidiary that holds the business. In October 2026, ONEOK bought the Permian Midland Basin assets of Brazos Midstream. The shares trade on the New York Stock Exchange. The head office is in Tulsa, Oklahoma. Pierce H. Norton II is President and Chief Executive Officer. ## Thesis The market prices ONEOK on its steady fee-based cash flow and its dividend, but it waits to see what the Apollo investment and the Brazos purchase give common shareholders. The $9 billion from Apollo paid for the Brazos assets and about $5.5 billion of debt repayment, and ONEOK expects leverage of about 3.25 times debt to EBITDA in 2027. But Apollo has a capped return of 7.01% a year for nine years, which comes before common shareholders. For the shares to earn more, three things must be true. EPS must grow from about $5.77 for 2026 without the one-time tax benefit, as the Brazos assets and new projects add earnings. Adjusted EBITDA must grow toward the high end of the target of mid- to high-single-digit growth a year. And ONEOK must use the lower debt for higher dividends or share buybacks. The Q4 2026 report and the 2027 guidance, expected in early 2027, are the next test. ## Checkpoints - Oct 27, 2026: Q3 2026 results and the 2026 guidance. Status: Passed. Watch: Higher adjusted EBITDA and kept or raised 2026 guidance pass; lower guidance fails. Outcome: Adjusted EBITDA rose 6% to $2.24 billion, and ONEOK raised its 2026 guidance for the third time in the year. - Jan 27, 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 results and the 2027 guidance. Status: Pending. Watch: 2027 guidance for higher EPS than in 2026 without the tax benefit passes; flat or lower EPS fails. - Q3 2027 (estimate): Start of the Cassidy II processing plant. Status: Pending. Watch: Start-up in Q3 2027, as planned, with growing Midland Basin volumes passes; a delay fails. ## Balance sheet - Cash: $186M - Debt: $28.5B - Net debt: $28.3B - EBITDA, last 12 months: $8.5B - Net debt / EBITDA: 3.3× (medium) - Debt due within 12 months: $1.6B - Ratings: S&P BBB+, Fitch BBB+ ONEOK funds itself with senior notes, commercial paper, a minority equity investment and cash flow. At September 30, 2026, cash was $186 million. Current maturities of long-term debt were $1,500 million, short-term borrowings were $85 million and long-term debt was $26,935 million. In September 2026, ONEOK used the proceeds of the $9 billion investment from Apollo to extinguish about $5.5 billion of debt. Noncontrolling interests in equity were $9,144 million. ONEOK has a $3.5 billion revolving credit agreement. S&P and Fitch rate ONEOK BBB+. ONEOK expects leverage of about 3.25 times debt to EBITDA in 2027. At October 19, 2026, there were 630,450,437 shares. The quarterly dividend is $1.07 per share. As of 2026-09-30. Sources: - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1039684/000103968426000036/okeq32026earningsrelease.htm - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1039684/000103968426000039/oke-20260930.htm - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1039684/000119312526377023/d405989dex991.htm ## Dividends - Dividend yield: 4.9% (last 12 months, at the current price) - Paid per share, last 12 months: $4.28 (4 payments) - Current annual rate: $4.28 ($1.07 x 4 a year) - Payout ratio: 76% of the earnings of the last fiscal year (the year ended 2025-12-31) - Latest ex-dividend date: 2026-11-02, $1.07 per share - Growth from 2020 to 2025: 2.0% a year - Growth from 2015 to 2025: 5.4% a year Dividends per share by year: 2016: $2.46, 2017: $2.72, 2018: $3.245, 2019: $3.53, 2020: $3.74, 2021: $3.74, 2022: $3.74, 2023: $3.82, 2024: $3.96, 2025: $4.12. Source: company filings and market data, read on 2026-11-11. ## Recent events - 2026-10-27: ONEOK reported Q3 2026 results. Net income attributable to ONEOK was $1.35 billion, or $2.13 per diluted share, including a one-time tax benefit of $0.53 per share. Adjusted EBITDA rose 6% to $2.24 billion. ONEOK raised its 2026 guidance to a midpoint of $6.30 of diluted EPS and $8.55 billion of adjusted EBITDA, and it declared a quarterly dividend of $1.07 per share. S&P and Fitch raised its credit rating to BBB+. - 2026-10-06: ONEOK completed the purchase of the Permian Midland Basin assets of Brazos Midstream for about $4.425 billion in cash. The system will have about 1.2 Bcf/d of processing capacity after the Cassidy II plant starts, expected in Q3 2027. - 2026-09-10: ONEOK closed the $9 billion nonvoting minority equity investment from funds managed by Apollo. In September 2026, it used the proceeds to extinguish about $5.5 billion of debt. - 2026-08-03: ONEOK reported Q2 2026 results. Net income rose 13% to $967 million, or $1.53 per diluted share, and adjusted EBITDA rose 7% to $2.12 billion, with record NGL volumes. - 2026-04-28: ONEOK reported Q1 2026 results. Net income rose 12% to $776 million, or $1.23 per diluted share, and adjusted EBITDA rose 13% to $2.0 billion. - 2026-02-23: ONEOK reported 2025 results. Net income attributable to ONEOK rose 12% to $3.39 billion, or $5.42 per diluted share, and adjusted EBITDA rose 18% to $8.02 billion. ## Latest news and filings - Last earnings: 2026-10-27 (8-K: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1039684/000103968426000036/) - Next earnings: 2027-01-27 (expected; the company has not confirmed it) | Filed | Form | Headline | Period end | XBRL document | Link | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026-10-28 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Sep 30, 2026 | 2026-09-30 | oke-20260930 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1039684/000103968426000039/oke-20260930.htm | | 2026-10-27 | 8-K | Earnings release and Investor disclosure | | oke-20261027 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1039684/000103968426000036/ | | 2026-09-15 | 8-K | New material agreement and Investor disclosure | | | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1039684/000119312526392003/d162704d8k.htm | | 2026-08-31 | 8-K | New material agreement and Investor disclosure | | | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1039684/000119312526377023/d405989d8k.htm | | 2026-08-04 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Jun 30, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | oke-20260630 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1039684/000103968426000029/oke-20260630.htm | | 2026-08-03 | 8-K | Acquisition or sale completed and Investor disclosure | | oke-20260803 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1039684/000103968426000027/oke-20260803.htm | | 2026-05-21 | 8-K | Shareholder vote results | | oke-20260520 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1039684/000103968426000022/oke-20260520.htm | | 2026-04-29 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Mar 31, 2026 | 2026-03-31 | oke-20260331 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1039684/000103968426000017/oke-20260331.htm | | 2026-04-28 | 8-K | Earnings release and Investor disclosure | | oke-20260428 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1039684/000103968426000015/ | | 2026-03-25 | 8-K | Change of directors or officers | | oke-20260320 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1039684/000103968426000008/oke-20260320.htm | Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 1039684): https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001039684&type=&dateb=&owner=include&count=40 ## Risks - Medium: Volumes depend on drilling by oil and gas producers. If oil or gas prices fall, producers can drill less in the Permian Basin and the Rocky Mountain region, and NGL and gas volumes can grow more slowly. - Medium: Apollo's investment has a return of 7.01% a year for nine years and more after that. These distributions come before common shareholders and lower the earnings per share from the business. - Medium: Part of the earnings comes from optimization and marketing, crude contracts with margin sharing and NGL price differentials. These earnings can fall when commodity prices or price differences change. - Low: Total debt was $28.5 billion at September 30, 2026. Higher interest rates make refinancing more expensive. - Low: The integration of several acquisitions and the start-up of new plants and pipelines can cost more or take longer than planned. ## Links - Page: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/OKE/ - History of changes: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/OKE/history/ - JSON with full history: https://picks.utilarium.app/data/company/OKE.json > Picks is a personal record of stock picks. It gives general opinions about stocks, including a "Top pick" label. They are not tailored to your needs, goals or risk tolerance. Kevin is not a registered adviser and relies on the general-advice exemption in Canadian securities law (NI 31-103 s.8.25). Do your own research, or ask a registered adviser. Kevin may hold any stock on this site. Prices, intrinsic values and ratings can be delayed or wrong; check the original source. Full disclaimer: /disclaimer/.