# Prologis (PLD) Sector: Industrial REIT | Field | Value | |---|---| | Price | $130.55 | | Market cap | $122B | | Intrinsic value source | Analysts | | Data as of | 2026-11-10 | | Next earnings | 2027-01-20 (estimate) | Analysts: Bullish Picks: Research only Discount category: Below intrinsic value ## In short The market doubts that Prologis can grow per-share earnings with high rates and the SEGRO deal, and steady rent growth, a smooth SEGRO close and new data center leases can close the gap within two years. ## Themes and gap - Themes: Interest rates (interest-rates), AI supplier (ai-supplier), Tariffs and trade (trade-tariffs) - Gap type: Can close (closable) - Why: The Q4 2026 report with 2027 guidance expected around January 20, 2027 and the SEGRO closing expected in the first half of 2027 are dated tests. ## About Prologis owns, develops and manages logistics real estate, mainly warehouses and distribution centers. It also builds data centers and solar and energy storage projects on its sites. At September 30, 2026, it owned or had investments in properties and development projects of about 1.3 billion square feet in 20 countries, with 5,941 buildings and about 6,500 customers. The U.S., where it includes Mexico, gave 84% of its share of net operating income, Europe 9%, Other Americas 5% and Asia 2%. Its strategic capital business manages co-investment ventures for other investors, and gross assets under management were $238 billion. In August 2026, it agreed to buy SEGRO, a U.K. logistics real estate company. Prologis is a real estate investment trust, and its shares trade on the New York Stock Exchange. Daniel S. Letter is chief executive officer. ## Thesis The market doubts that Prologis can grow earnings per share fast enough while interest rates stay high and while it buys SEGRO. On August 4, 2026, Prologis agreed to buy SEGRO for about £14.0 billion, mostly with new Prologis shares, and SEGRO holders can get up to about £3.5 billion in cash. Rent growth on new leases has also slowed from its peak: the net effective rent change was 38.0% in Q3 2026, against 49.4% a year earlier. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Occupancy must stay near 95.5%, and cash same store NOI must keep growing near the 2026 guidance of 7.00% to 7.50%. The SEGRO deal must close in the first half of 2027 as planned, with integration costs and new debt under control and no large cut to Core FFO per share. The data center pipeline of 5.8 GW of secured or advanced-stage power must turn into leased projects with good margins. The Q4 2026 report, expected around January 20, 2027, with the first guidance for 2027, gives the next test. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next one to two years. ## Checkpoints - Jan 20, 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 results and 2027 guidance. Status: Pending. Watch: Occupancy near 95.5%, cash same store NOI growth near 7% and 2027 Core FFO guidance above the 2026 result pass; flat guidance or falling occupancy fail. - Q2 2027 (estimate): SEGRO deal closes. Status: Pending. Watch: Completion in the first half of 2027 on the agreed terms pass; a delay, a block by a regulator or new conditions fail. ## Balance sheet - Cash: $2.3B - Debt: $36.8B - Net debt: $34.6B - Ratings: Moody's A2 (stable outlook), S&P A (stable outlook) Prologis funds itself mostly with unsecured bonds in several currencies. At September 30, 2026, consolidated debt was $36.83 billion and cash was $2.27 billion. Total available liquidity was about $8.8 billion. Debt was 4.5 times adjusted EBITDA and 23.9% of total market capitalization. The weighted average interest rate on its share of total debt was 3.3%, with a weighted average remaining term of 7.6 years, and 5.1% of the debt had a floating rate. Moody's rates it A2 and S&P rates it A, both with a stable outlook. The fixed charge coverage ratio was 6.2 times. For the cash part of the SEGRO deal, Prologis has a committed term loan of up to £3.575 billion that it can draw only at closing. In Q3 2026, it and its co-investment ventures closed $1.3 billion of new debt at a weighted average rate of 4.0%. As of 2026-09-30. Sources: - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045609/000119312526422375/pld-ex99_1.htm - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045609/000119312526422375/pld-ex99_2.htm - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045609/000119312526436160/pld-20260930.htm ## Dividends - Dividend yield: 3.2% (last 12 months, at the current price) - Paid per share, last 12 months: $4.22 (4 payments) - Current annual rate: $4.28 ($1.07 x 4 a year) - Payout ratio: 113% of the earnings of the last fiscal year (the year ended 2025-12-31) - Latest ex-dividend date: 2026-09-16, $1.07 per share - Growth over the last 5 years: 11.3% a year - Growth over the last 10 years: 9.8% a year Dividends per share by year: 2016: $1.68, 2017: $1.76, 2018: $1.92, 2019: $2.12, 2020: $2.32, 2021: $2.52, 2022: $3.16, 2023: $3.48, 2024: $3.84, 2025: $4.04. Source: company filings and market data, read on 2026-11-09. ## Recent events - 2026-10-30: Prologis signed a new at-the-market equity distribution agreement that replaces its earlier program. - 2026-10-15: Prologis reported Q3 2026 results. Core FFO was $1.60 per diluted share, up from $1.49, and net earnings were $0.86 per share. It signed 60 million square feet of leases. Period-end occupancy was 95.6%, and cash same store NOI grew 5.9%. The company narrowed its 2026 Core FFO guidance to $6.25 to $6.29 per share and lowered its net earnings guidance to $4.05 to $4.15 per share. - 2026-09-28: SEGRO shareholders approved the purchase of SEGRO by Prologis. The deal still needs other approvals, including some from regulators. - 2026-08-04: Prologis agreed to buy all of SEGRO through a U.K. scheme of arrangement. SEGRO shareholders get 0.0920 new Prologis shares for each SEGRO share, with a partial cash alternative of up to about £3.5 billion. At the prices of July 21, 2026, the deal valued SEGRO at about £14.0 billion. Prologis signed a term loan of up to £3.575 billion for the cash, and it will seek a second listing on the London Stock Exchange. It expects to complete the deal in the first half of 2027. - 2026-07-16: Prologis reported Q2 2026 results and raised its 2026 guidance for the second time in the year. Core FFO was $1.63 per diluted share. It signed a record of more than 67 million square feet of leases, and its data center power pipeline grew to 5.8 GW. ## Latest news and filings - Last earnings: 2026-10-15 (8-K: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045609/000119312526422375/) - Next earnings: 2027-01-20 (expected; the company has not confirmed it) | Filed | Form | Headline | Period end | XBRL document | Link | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026-10-30 | 8-K | Other company news | | | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045609/000110465926120653/tm2621013d3_8k.htm | | 2026-10-28 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Sep 30, 2026 | 2026-09-30 | pld-20260930 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045609/000119312526436160/pld-20260930.htm | | 2026-10-15 | 8-K | Earnings release and Investor disclosure | | pld-20261015 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045609/000119312526422375/pld-20261015.htm | | 2026-08-06 | 8-K | Other company news | | | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045609/000110465926092072/tm2621154d3_8k.htm | | 2026-08-05 | 8-K | Other company news | | | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045609/000110465926090724/tm2621155d5_8k.htm | | 2026-08-04 | 8-K | New material agreement and New debt or financial obligation | | | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045609/000110465926089980/tm2621154d2_8k.htm | | 2026-07-29 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Jun 30, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | pld-20260630 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045609/000119312526323746/pld-20260630.htm | | 2026-07-16 | 8-K | Earnings release and Investor disclosure | | pld-20260716 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045609/000119312526305416/pld-20260716.htm | | 2026-07-01 | 8-K | Change of directors or officers | | | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045609/000119312526291634/d145916d8k.htm | | 2026-06-24 | 8-K | Other company news | | | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045609/000119312526280195/d138357d8k.htm | Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 1045609): https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001045609&type=&dateb=&owner=include&count=40 ## Risks - Medium: The SEGRO deal still needs regulatory approvals and court sanction. A delay, higher integration costs or more debt for the cash part can lower Core FFO per share. - Medium: Higher interest rates raise the cost of new debt and can raise the yields that buyers ask for warehouses, which lowers property values and the gains from development. - Medium: Demand for warehouses depends on trade and consumer spending. New tariffs or a slower economy can lower leasing and rent growth. - Low: Data center projects need large amounts of power and capital. Delays in power supply or weak demand can lower the returns on these projects. ## Links - Page: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/PLD/ - History of changes: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/PLD/history/ - JSON with full history: https://picks.utilarium.app/data/company/PLD.json > Picks is a personal record of stock picks. It gives general opinions about stocks, including a "Top pick" label. They are not tailored to your needs, goals or risk tolerance. 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