# Rivian Automotive (RIVN) Sector: Electric vehicles | Field | Value | |---|---| | Price | $12.80 | | Market cap | $19B | | Intrinsic value source | Analysts | | Data as of | 2026-11-13 | | Next earnings | 2027-02-11 (estimate) | Analysts: Leaning bullish Picks: Research only Discount category: Well below intrinsic value ## In short The market doubts that Rivian can turn R2 volume into profit before it needs more capital, and a steady R2 ramp with a positive automotive gross profit through 2027 can lift its value. ## Themes and gap - Themes: Weak consumer (weak-consumer), Regulation and courts (regulation-legal), New management (management-change) - Gap type: Slow (slow) - Why: The R2 ramp, the first DOE loan draw and the path to a positive gross profit take several years to show whether Rivian can earn a profit. ## About Rivian Automotive, Inc. (Rivian) is based in Irvine, California. It designs and makes electric vehicles: the R1 and R2 consumer vehicles and the Electric Delivery Van, which Amazon buys. It builds them in Normal, Illinois, and it is building a second plant, the Stanton Springs North Facility. It also sells software and services, such as vehicle electrical architecture and software development for its joint venture with Volkswagen Group, repair services and the Autonomy+ subscription. Revenue was $2,155 million in Q3 2026, and Rivian delivered 19,248 vehicles. The company has a net loss. The Class A common stock trades on Nasdaq in US dollars. Rivian files 10-K and 10-Q reports. ## Thesis The price of Rivian depends on whether the R2 can lift volume enough to turn losses into profit before the company needs much more capital. Deliveries grew 46% in Q3 2026 and the R2 was already the best-selling Rivian vehicle, but the automotive segment had a gross loss of $80 million and adjusted EBITDA was minus $435 million. Free cash flow was minus $1,124 million in Q3. In March 2026 Rivian said that it no longer expects positive adjusted EBITDA in 2027, because it spends more on autonomy. It sold 86.25 million new shares in July 2026 and issued shares to Volkswagen Group and Uber, so shareholders were diluted. For the price to hold or rise, four things must be true. R2 production must keep rising with the second shift in Normal. The automotive gross profit must turn positive as the costs of the R2 ramp fall. The DOE loan must fund the Stanton Springs North plant, with the first draw expected by early 2027. Software and autonomy revenue, with the Volkswagen Group joint venture and the Uber program, must keep growing. The Q4 2026 report, expected in February 2027, and the 2027 outlook are the next tests. ## Checkpoints - Jan 2027 (estimate): 2026 deliveries. Status: Pending. Watch: Rivian delivers 67,000 to 70,000 vehicles in 2026, as it guides, and this passes; fewer than 67,000 fails. - Feb 11, 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 results and 2027 outlook. Status: Pending. Watch: 2026 adjusted EBITDA is minus $1.85 billion or better, as guided, and this passes; a larger loss fails. - Q1 2027 (estimate): First DOE loan draw. Status: Pending. Watch: Rivian makes the first draw on the DOE loan by the end of Q1 2027, and this passes; no draw by then fails. ## Balance sheet - Cash: $5.5B - Debt: $4.5B - Net cash: $1.0B - Undrawn credit line: $593M, to April 2030 - Last debt due: 2031 At September 30, 2026, Rivian had cash and cash equivalents of $3,509 million and short-term investments of $1,993 million, a total of $5,502 million. Debt principal was $4,475 million: $1,500 million of 4.625% green convertible notes due March 2029, $1,725 million of 3.625% green convertible notes due October 2030 and $1,250 million of 10% green secured notes due January 2031. The asset-based revolving credit facility, which matures in April 2030, had no borrowings, and total liquidity with it was $6,095 million. On October 7, 2026, a $1,000 million 10-year loan from Volkswagen Group was funded at 6.03%, which is not in these figures. The DOE loan of up to about $4.5 billion for the Stanton Springs North plant was not yet drawn. Free cash flow was minus $3,048 million for nine months. Stockholders' equity was $5,718 million. As of 2026-09-30. Sources: - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1874178/000187417826000066/rivn-20260930.htm - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1874178/000187417826000065/ex-9913q26rivianearningspr.htm - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1874178/000187417826000065/ex-9923q26rivianearnings.htm ## Dividends Rivian Automotive does not pay a dividend. Source: company filings and market data, read on 2026-11-12. ## Recent events - 2026-10-29: Rivian reported Q3 2026 results. Revenue rose 38% to $2,155 million, deliveries rose 46% to 19,248 and gross profit was $176 million. It raised 2026 delivery guidance to 67,000 to 70,000, improved adjusted EBITDA guidance to minus $1.85 billion to minus $1.75 billion and cut capital spending guidance to $1.40 billion to $1.50 billion. - 2026-10-27: The board appointed Derek Mulvey, Vice President of Finance, as Interim Chief Financial Officer from October 30, 2026. Claire McDonough, the Chief Financial Officer, had said in August 2026 that she would resign. - 2026-10-07: A $1,000 million 10-year loan from Volkswagen Group was funded through the joint venture, at a fixed rate of 6.03%. - 2026-07-07: Rivian agreed to sell 75 million shares of Class A common stock at $15.50 per share, and the underwriters bought 11.25 million more. Net proceeds were about $1,317 million. - 2026-05-04: Rivian issued 19,553,911 shares of Class A common stock to an affiliate of Uber for $300 million, at $15.3422 per share, after it reached the first milestone of their agreement. - 2026-03-18: Rivian signed agreements with Uber to develop and operate autonomous vehicles based on the R2 platform, with up to $950 million more of Uber investment tied to milestones. Rivian said that it no longer expects positive adjusted EBITDA in 2027. ## Latest news and filings - Last earnings: 2026-10-29 (8-K: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1874178/000187417826000065/) - Next earnings: 2027-02-11 (expected; the company has not confirmed it) | Filed | Form | Headline | Period end | XBRL document | Link | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026-10-29 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Sep 30, 2026 | 2026-09-30 | rivn-20260930 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1874178/000187417826000066/rivn-20260930.htm | | 2026-10-29 | 8-K | Earnings release and Change of directors or officers | | rivn-20261027 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1874178/000187417826000065/ | | 2026-10-07 | 8-K | New debt or financial obligation | | rivn-20261007 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1874178/000187417826000061/rivn-20261007.htm | | 2026-10-02 | 8-K | Investor disclosure | | rivn-20261002 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1874178/000187417826000057/rivn-20261002.htm | | 2026-08-27 | 8-K | Change of directors or officers and Investor disclosure | | | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1874178/000110465926102435/tm2624125d1_8k.htm | | 2026-07-30 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Jun 30, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | rivn-20260630 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1874178/000187417826000054/rivn-20260630.htm | | 2026-07-30 | 8-K | Earnings release | | rivn-20260730 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1874178/000187417826000053/ | | 2026-07-09 | 8-K | Other company news | | | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1874178/000110465926081988/tm2617163d3_8k.htm | | 2026-07-06 | 8-K | Earnings release | | | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1874178/000110465926080813/ | | 2026-07-02 | 8-K | Investor disclosure | | rivn-20260702 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1874178/000187417826000048/rivn-20260702.htm | Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 1874178): https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001874178&type=&dateb=&owner=include&count=40 ## Risks - High: The company uses much cash. Free cash flow was minus $3,048 million for nine months of 2026, and the 10-Q says that Rivian expects to seek more equity or debt financing. - High: The R2 ramp is costly. Rivian recorded about $120 million of extra cost of revenues in Q3 2026 for the ramp, and the automotive segment had a gross loss. A slower ramp would keep losses high. - Medium: Shareholders can be diluted. The convertible notes can convert into 149 million shares, and options, stock awards and warrants cover 173 million more. Volkswagen Group and Uber can receive more shares when they invest. - Medium: Government support for electric vehicles fell. The 30D and 45W tax credits changed for vehicles bought or leased after September 30, 2025, and revenue from regulatory credits can fall. - Medium: The finance team changed. The Chief Financial Officer left on October 30, 2026, and an interim officer holds the role. ## Links - Page: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/RIVN/ - History of changes: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/RIVN/history/ - JSON with full history: https://picks.utilarium.app/data/company/RIVN.json > Picks is a personal record of stock picks. It gives general opinions about stocks, including a "Top pick" label. They are not tailored to your needs, goals or risk tolerance. Kevin is not a registered adviser and relies on the general-advice exemption in Canadian securities law (NI 31-103 s.8.25). Do your own research, or ask a registered adviser. Kevin may hold any stock on this site. Prices, intrinsic values and ratings can be delayed or wrong; check the original source. Full disclaimer: /disclaimer/.