# Roivant Sciences (ROIV) Sector: Biotechnology holding company | Field | Value | |---|---| | Price | $41.85 | | Market cap | $30B | | Intrinsic value source | AI estimate | | Data as of | 2026-11-12 | | Next earnings | 2027-02-05 (estimate) | Analysts: Very bullish Picks: Research only Discount category: Far above intrinsic value ## In short Investors pay more than the AI estimate for the launch of LISRAYA and the late-stage pipeline of Roivant, and only approvals in uveitis and several IMVT-1402 diseases with strong sales can earn this price. ## Themes and gap - Themes: Regulation and courts (regulation-legal) - Gap type: Can close (closable) - Why: The FDA talks on IMVT-1402 in late 2026, the uveitis application in 2027 and the Moderna appeal show how much of the pipeline turns into sales. ## About Roivant Sciences Ltd. (Roivant) is a biotechnology holding company. It was founded on April 7, 2014 as a Bermuda company, and it works from Basel, Switzerland, London and New York. It develops medicines through subsidiaries that it calls Vants. Priovant makes brepocitinib, sold as LISRAYA, which the FDA approved in August 2026 for adults with dermatomyositis. Immunovant makes IMVT-1402. Pulmovant makes mosliciguat. Genevant owns lipid nanoparticle delivery technology and runs patent suits. Roivant also holds about 19% of Arbutus and about 9% of the Class A units of Datavant. Its fiscal year ends on March 31. At September 30, 2026, it had cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities of $4.2 billion. Matt Gline is Chief Executive Officer. Roivant files 10-K and 10-Q reports with the SEC, and its common shares trade on Nasdaq in US dollars. ## Thesis The price of Roivant depends on what its medicines can earn, not on its cash. The market prices its launch and its late-stage trials. The cash is large, at $4.2 billion, but the company spends heavily: the loss from continuing operations was $443.6 million in the first six months of fiscal 2026. LISRAYA had net product revenue of $31.0 million in its first five weeks, and brepocitinib met all key endpoints in two Phase 3 trials in non-infectious uveitis (NIU). IMVT-1402 met its main goal at the 600 mg dose in difficult-to-treat rheumatoid arthritis, and mosliciguat had positive Phase 2 data. For the price to hold or rise, four things must be true. LISRAYA sales must grow each quarter. The FDA must accept the application for NIU, which Priovant plans to file in the first half of 2027. IMVT-1402 must show the same benefit in Graves' disease and myasthenia gravis, where data are due in 2027. Mosliciguat must succeed in its Phase 3 trial. The result of Moderna's appeal can add $1.3 billion for Genevant and Arbutus. The next tests are the Investor Day on December 9, 2026, the talks with the FDA on IMVT-1402 later in 2026 and the application for NIU in 2027. ## Checkpoints - Dec 9, 2026: Investor Day. Status: Pending. Watch: Roivant shows rising LISRAYA sales and a clear path for brepocitinib and IMVT-1402, and this passes; weak launch data or a vague plan fail. - Dec 2026 (estimate): FDA talks on IMVT-1402 in rheumatoid arthritis. Status: Pending. Watch: The FDA agrees to a registrational program for the 600 mg dose, and this passes; a demand for a new large trial first fails. - Q2 2027 (estimate): Brepocitinib application for uveitis. Status: Pending. Watch: Priovant files the supplemental application in the first half of 2027 and the FDA accepts it, and this passes; a delay or a refusal to file fails. - 2027 (estimate): Data for IMVT-1402 in Graves' disease and myasthenia gravis. Status: Pending. Watch: Both trials meet their primary endpoints, and this passes; a miss in either one fails. ## Valuation The intrinsic value for Roivant Sciences is an AI estimate from November 12, 2026. It is not an analyst's value. An AI research agent calculated it from the filings of Roivant with the SEC. Roivant is a biotech holding company that has little revenue and large cash, so the estimate values it as cash and other net assets plus the risk-adjusted value of its pipeline. Its fiscal year ends on March 31, and the latest report is for the quarter ended September 30, 2026. The Form 10-Q for that quarter (filed November 9, 2026) gives total shareholders' equity of $4,595.7 million, of which $4,020.3 million belongs to Roivant shareholders and $575.4 million to noncontrolling interests. The estimate takes the $4,020.3 million as the value of cash, investments and other net assets after liabilities and minority claims. Cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities are $4,207.6 million. The 10-Q also gives 724,561,460 common shares outstanding at November 3, 2026, 59,812,191 non-vested restricted stock units and 68,089,460 stock options at September 30, 2026. The Form 10-K for the year ended March 31, 2026 gives a weighted average exercise price of $6.71 for options. The estimate adds all the restricted stock units. It adds the options as net shares by the treasury method at an assumed price of $20 a share, which is 45.25 million shares. The total is 829.62 million shares. The estimate then adds the value of four parts of the pipeline, each at Roivant's fully diluted ownership at September 30, 2026 from the 10-Q: Priovant 65%, Immunovant 52%, Pulmovant 90% and Genevant 64%. The Q2 release (8-K, November 9, 2026) says that LISRAYA (brepocitinib) was approved in August 2026 for dermatomyositis and had net revenue of $31.0 million in its first five weeks. It also says that Phase 3 trials in non-infectious uveitis met all key endpoints, with a supplemental application due in the first half of 2027. It says that IMVT-1402 met the primary endpoint in difficult-to-treat rheumatoid arthritis, with data in Graves' disease and myasthenia gravis due in 2027, and that mosliciguat had positive Phase 2 data and has started Phase 3. It says that Moderna paid $950 million in July 2026 under a $2.25 billion settlement, and that a further $1.3 billion depends on a result of Moderna's Section 1498 appeal that favors Genevant and Arbutus. Oral arguments took place on November 5, 2026. The balance sheet at March 31, 2026 shows a settlement receivable of $770.2 million, which the estimate reads as 81% of the $950 million for Genevant. The value of each product, the probabilities and the costs are assumptions. Each product value is the risk-adjusted value of the whole product after its own costs and the royalty to Pfizer on LISRAYA. The estimate gives no value to the Pfizer and BioNTech case, and it takes a cost of $1,000 million in all cases for platform and corporate costs that no product bears. The low case values brepocitinib at $3,000 million, IMVT-1402 at $500 million and mosliciguat at $300 million, because uveitis is not approved and the anti-FcRn data disappoint. It adds nothing for the further Moderna payment. Roivant's share is $1,950.0 million, $260.0 million and $270.0 million, so the total is $5,500.3 million, or $6.63 per share. The base case values brepocitinib at $8,000 million, IMVT-1402 at $3,500 million and mosliciguat at $1,500 million. Roivant's share is $5,200.0 million, $1,820.0 million and $1,350.0 million. It adds $337.0 million for the further Moderna payment, which is $1,300 million times 81% times 64% times an assumed probability of 50%. The total is $11,727.3 million, or $14.14 per share. The high case values brepocitinib at $16,000 million, IMVT-1402 at $8,000 million and mosliciguat at $4,000 million. Roivant's share is $10,400.0 million, $4,160.0 million and $3,600.0 million. It adds $673.9 million for the whole further Moderna payment. The total is $21,854.2 million, or $26.34 per share. The estimate assumes weights of 25%, 50% and 25%. The weighted intrinsic value is $15.31 per share. As of 2026-11-12. Sources: - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1635088/000163508826000130/q2fy2026roivantearningsrel.htm - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1635088/000163508826000132/roiv-20260930.htm - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1635088/000163508826000061/roiv-20260331.htm ## Balance sheet At September 30, 2026, Roivant had cash and cash equivalents of $1,642.3 million and marketable securities of $2,565.3 million, which is $4,207.6 million in all. Total liabilities were $380.1 million, and total shareholders' equity was $4,595.7 million. Of the equity, $4,020.3 million belongs to Roivant shareholders and $575.4 million to noncontrolling interests in its subsidiaries. In the first six months of fiscal 2026, operating cash flow was positive $323.9 million, because Genevant received its share of the first Moderna payment, and financing used $430.7 million. In that period the company bought back 9.4 million shares for $281.2 million, and about $609.3 million remains under its program. It also has $400.0 million of capacity under an at-the-market share program. As of 2026-09-30. Sources: - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1635088/000163508826000132/roiv-20260930.htm - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1635088/000163508826000130/q2fy2026roivantearningsrel.htm ## Dividends Roivant Sciences does not pay a dividend. Source: company filings and market data, read on 2026-11-13. ## Recent events - 2026-11-09: Roivant reported results for the quarter ended September 30, 2026. LISRAYA had net product revenue of $31.0 million in its first five weeks. Cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities were $4.2 billion. The company bought back 2.1 million shares for about $72.5 million in the quarter. Genevant and Arbutus received $950 million from Moderna in July 2026, the first payment under a global patent settlement of $2.25 billion. - 2026-11-09: In a trial in difficult-to-treat rheumatoid arthritis, IMVT-1402 at 600 mg met its primary endpoint at Week 28: 92.5% of patients kept an ACR20 response, against 75.6% on placebo. The 300 mg dose did not differ from placebo. Roivant will meet the FDA later this year, and it now thinks it unlikely to take IMVT-1402 further in Sjögren's disease. - 2026-10-21: Roivant said that brepocitinib met the primary and all key secondary endpoints in two Phase 3 trials in non-infectious uveitis. Median time to treatment failure was more than 48 weeks, against about 12 weeks on placebo. Priovant plans to file a supplemental application in the first half of 2027. - 2026-09-08: Roivant said that mosliciguat met its primary endpoint in the Phase 2 PHocus study in pulmonary hypertension with interstitial lung disease. It cut pulmonary vascular resistance by 56.3% against placebo at Week 16. The company then started a Phase 3 study. - 2026-08-28: Roivant said that LISRAYA has a wholesale acquisition cost of $35,000 for a bottle of 30 tablets of 30 mg. The FDA approved the drug on August 27, 2026 for adults with dermatomyositis. ## Latest news and filings - Last earnings: 2026-11-09 (8-K: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1635088/000163508826000130/) - Next earnings: 2027-02-05 (expected; the company has not confirmed it) | Filed | Form | Headline | Period end | XBRL document | Link | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026-11-09 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Sep 30, 2026 | 2026-09-30 | roiv-20260930 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1635088/000163508826000132/roiv-20260930.htm | | 2026-11-09 | 8-K | Earnings release | | roiv-20261109 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1635088/000163508826000130/ | | 2026-10-21 | 8-K | Investor disclosure | | | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1635088/000114036126040332/ef20084121_8k.htm | | 2026-09-18 | 8-K | Shareholder vote results | | roiv-20260916 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1635088/000163508826000095/roiv-20260916.htm | | 2026-09-08 | 8-K | Investor disclosure | | | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1635088/000114036126035859/ef20081686_8k.htm | | 2026-08-28 | 8-K | Other company news | | | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1635088/000114036126034854/ef20081283_8k.htm | | 2026-08-27 | 8-K | Investor disclosure | | | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1635088/000114036126034735/ef20081229_8k.htm | | 2026-08-06 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Jun 30, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | roiv-20260630 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1635088/000163508826000090/roiv-20260630.htm | | 2026-08-06 | 8-K | Earnings release | | roiv-20260806 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1635088/000163508826000088/ | | 2026-05-20 | 10-K | Annual report for the period ended Mar 31, 2026 | 2026-03-31 | roiv-20260331 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1635088/000163508826000061/roiv-20260331.htm | Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 1635088): https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001635088&type=&dateb=&owner=include&count=40 ## Risks - High: Value depends on trial and FDA results that can go either way. A failed trial of IMVT-1402 in Graves' disease or myasthenia gravis, or a refusal of the uveitis application, would cut the value of the pipeline. - Medium: The company relies on one marketed product, LISRAYA. The first five weeks of sales are a short record, and the sales rate may not last. LISRAYA also carries a tiered royalty to Pfizer, which the company calls sub-teens. - Medium: The path for IMVT-1402 in rheumatoid arthritis is not settled. The 300 mg dose did not work, and the FDA must still agree on a registrational program. The company has also cut back its plans in Sjögren's disease. - Medium: The Moderna appeal can go against Genevant and Arbutus. Then the further $1.3 billion is not paid. The case against Pfizer and BioNTech is still open. - Low: The company has large losses. It lost $443.6 million from continuing operations in six months. Cash is large, but it also pays for buybacks and for the distribution of settlement money to holders of awards in Genevant's parent. ## Links - Page: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/ROIV/ - History of changes: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/ROIV/history/ - JSON with full history: https://picks.utilarium.app/data/company/ROIV.json > Picks is a personal record of stock picks. It gives general opinions about stocks, including a "Top pick" label. They are not tailored to your needs, goals or risk tolerance. Kevin is not a registered adviser and relies on the general-advice exemption in Canadian securities law (NI 31-103 s.8.25). Do your own research, or ask a registered adviser. Kevin may hold any stock on this site. Prices, intrinsic values and ratings can be delayed or wrong; check the original source. Full disclaimer: /disclaimer/.