# Revolution Medicines (RVMD)

Sector: Oncology biotechnology

| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Price | $180.70 |
| Market cap | $39B |
| Intrinsic value source | AI estimate |
| Data as of | 2026-11-12 |
| Next earnings | 2027-02-24 (estimate) |

Analysts: Very bullish

Picks: Research only

Discount category: Far above intrinsic value

## In short

Revolution Medicines trades above the AI estimate because investors pay for how large its RAS drugs can grow, and only steady RASONQUE sales with positive first-line trials can support this price.

## Themes and gap

- Themes: Regulation and courts (regulation-legal)
- Gap type: Can close (closable)
- Why: The European Commission decision, the Q4 2026 report in February 2027 and the first lung cancer readout in 2027 show whether sales and trials can support the price.

## About

Revolution Medicines, Inc. (Revolution Medicines) is a commercial-stage cancer drug company based in Redwood City, California. It makes oral drugs that block RAS(ON), the active form of RAS proteins that drive many cancers. On August 26, 2026, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved its first drug, RASONQUE (daraxonrasib), for adults with metastatic pancreatic cancer who had at least one earlier treatment. The wholesale acquisition cost is $39,800 for a 30-day supply. RASONQUE had net product revenue of $197.6 million in Q3 2026, for about five weeks of sales. The European Medicines Agency's committee gave a positive opinion in October 2026, and the European Commission has not yet decided. The company has four more Phase 3 trials in pancreatic cancer, Phase 3 trials in lung cancer and drugs for specific RAS mutations: zoldonrasib (G12D), elironrasib (G12C) and RMC-5127 (G12V). It has partners that include BeOne Medicines, which has rights in select Asian markets, Summit Therapeutics, Tango Therapeutics and Bristol Myers Squibb. Mark Goldsmith is Chief Executive Officer and Chairman. The shares trade on the Nasdaq in US dollars.

## Thesis

Revolution Medicines trades above the AI estimate because investors pay for how big the RAS(ON) drugs can become, even though that is hard to know, because there are only five weeks of sales. The company says that Q3 sales include patients who moved from its expanded access program and the first stocking of the channel, so Q3 does not show the longer-term trend. Costs are high. The company guides 2026 operating expenses of $2.1 billion to $2.2 billion and lost $407.5 million in Q3. It has cash of $3.7 billion, and debt and royalty obligations to Royalty Pharma. For the price to hold, three things must be true. Sales in the second-line pancreatic cancer setting must keep growing after the first cohort. The first-line trials in pancreatic cancer must succeed. The lung cancer trial, RASolve 301, must give a positive first readout in 2027. The next tests are the European Commission decision, the Q4 2026 report in February 2027, the end of enrollment in RASolve 301 in November 2026 and its readout in 2027.

## Checkpoints

- Aug 26, 2026: FDA decision on daraxonrasib in pancreatic cancer. Status: Passed. Watch: FDA approval for previously treated metastatic pancreatic cancer passes; a refusal or a delay fails. Outcome: The FDA approved RASONQUE on August 26, 2026, and the company launched it at once.
- Dec 2026 (estimate): European Commission decision on daraxonrasib. Status: Pending. Watch: Approval of daraxonrasib in the European Union after the positive committee opinion passes; a refusal or a long delay fails.
- Feb 24, 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 results: second launch quarter. Status: Pending. Watch: Net product revenue above the Q3 level of $197.6 million, with a full quarter of sales, passes; lower sales fail.
- Dec 2027 (estimate): RASolve 301 first readout in lung cancer. Status: Pending. Watch: A positive first readout of the Phase 3 trial in previously treated RAS mutant lung cancer, which the company expects in 2027, passes; a negative readout fails.

## Valuation

The intrinsic value for Revolution Medicines is an AI estimate from November 12, 2026. It is not an analyst's value. An AI research agent calculated it from the company's filings with the SEC. The company has one approved product, RASONQUE (daraxonrasib). The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved it on August 26, 2026 for adults with metastatic pancreatic cancer who had at least one earlier treatment. The wholesale acquisition cost is $39,800 for a 30-day supply, which is about $484,000 a year before discounts (8-K, August 26, 2026). The company has no profit. The Q3 2026 release (8-K, November 4, 2026) gives net product revenue of $197.6 million for about five weeks of sales, a net loss of $407.5 million, research and development expense of $417.1 million, selling, general and administrative expense of $153.3 million, and 2026 GAAP operating expense guidance of $2.1 billion to $2.2 billion. The company says that Q3 sales include patients who moved from its expanded access program and the first stocking of the channel, so they do not show the longer-term trend. Because there are no stable earnings, the method is a multiple of annual net product sales in 2029, plus net cash and the cash from options and warrants, divided by the diluted share count. The 2029 sales and the multiples are assumptions. They stand for the value of all programs, including the later-stage trials in pancreatic, lung and colorectal cancer. The Form 10-Q for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 gives cash and marketable securities of $3,651.4 million. The estimate adds $250.0 million from the first term loan tranche, drawn on October 8, 2026, less the $5.0 million fee (8-K, October 13, 2026). It takes off that term loan of $250.0 million, convertible senior notes of $500.0 million, and the liability for the sale of future royalties to Royalty Pharma of about $572.3 million. The notes have a conversion price of about $198.80 per share, and the estimate treats them as debt and adds no shares for them. Net cash is $2,574.1 million. The share count is 216,292,323 shares at October 30, 2026, plus 4,825,674 unvested restricted stock units, 17,699,003 options with an average exercise price of $43.13 and 2,174,247 shares from warrants at $11.50 per 0.1112 share, which is $103.42 per share. The estimate assumes that all of them are exercised. This gives 240.99 million shares and $988.2 million of exercise proceeds. The low case assumes that RASONQUE stays a later-line treatment with slow growth and that no new approvals arrive, with 2029 net sales of $3,000 million at 3.0 times. It gives $52.13 per share. The base case assumes a first-line approval in pancreatic cancer and some use in lung cancer, with 2029 net sales of $6,000 million at 4.0 times. It gives $114.37 per share. The high case assumes broad first-line use in pancreatic cancer and approvals in lung cancer, with 2029 net sales of $10,000 million at 5.0 times. It gives $222.26 per share. The estimate assumes weights of 25%, 50% and 25%. The weighted intrinsic value is $125.78 per share.

As of 2026-11-12.

Sources:

- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1628171/000119312526447193/rvmd-ex99_1.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1628171/000119312526447253/rvmd-20260930.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1628171/000119312526366931/rvmd-20260826.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1628171/000162817126000004/rvmd-20261008.htm

## Balance sheet

Revolution Medicines held cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities of $3,651.4 million at September 30, 2026, not counting the $250.0 million term loan that it drew in October 2026. Total assets were $4,303.5 million, total liabilities were $1,902.0 million and stockholders' equity was $2,401.5 million. The debt is $500.0 million of 0.50% convertible senior notes due 2033, with a conversion price of about $198.80 per share, a liability of about $572.3 million for the sale of future royalties to Royalty Pharma, and the $250.0 million term loan with a floating rate and a due date in October 2032. Up to $500.0 million more of term loans and up to $500.0 million of further royalty purchases are available at the company's choice, if it meets set milestones. Operating cash use was $1.2 billion in the first nine months of 2026. The 0.1112-share warrants from the EQRx merger expire in December 2026.

As of 2026-09-30.

Sources:

- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1628171/000119312526447193/rvmd-ex99_1.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1628171/000119312526447253/rvmd-20260930.htm

## Dividends

Revolution Medicines does not pay a dividend.

Source: company filings and market data, read on 2026-11-13.

## Recent events

- 2026-11-04: Revolution Medicines reported Q3 2026 results. RASONQUE net product revenue was $197.6 million, and more than 5,000 patients got commercial drug by September 30. The net loss was $407.5 million. Cash and marketable securities were $3.7 billion. The company reiterated 2026 operating expense guidance of $2.1 billion to $2.2 billion.
- 2026-10-13: The company said that it drew the first $250.0 million of its term loan from Royalty Pharma on October 8, 2026, after the FDA approval. It paid a fee of $5.0 million. The loan has a floating rate of the three-month SOFR rate, with a floor of 3.5%, plus 5.75%, and the principal is due in October 2032. In October, the company chose not to draw an optional $250.0 million royalty tranche.
- 2026-08-26: The FDA approved RASONQUE (daraxonrasib) for adults with metastatic pancreatic cancer who had at least one earlier treatment or who cannot have a multi-drug treatment. The company launched it at once. The approval followed the RASolute 302 trial.
- 2026-04-17: The company closed a sale of $500.0 million of 0.50% convertible senior notes due 2033. In April, it also sold 12,147,887 shares at $142.00 per share, for net proceeds of about $1.7 billion.
- 2026-04-13: The company reported the first results of the Phase 3 RASolute 302 trial in pancreatic cancer. Median overall survival was 13.2 months with daraxonrasib and 6.7 months with chemotherapy. The hazard ratio was 0.40.

## Latest news and filings

- Last earnings: 2026-11-04 (8-K: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1628171/000119312526447193/)
- Next earnings: 2027-02-24 (expected; the company has not confirmed it)

| Filed | Form | Headline | Period end | XBRL document | Link |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2026-11-04 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Sep 30, 2026 | 2026-09-30 | rvmd-20260930 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1628171/000119312526447253/rvmd-20260930.htm |
| 2026-11-04 | 8-K | Earnings release |  | rvmd-20261104 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1628171/000119312526447193/ |
| 2026-10-13 | 8-K | New debt or financial obligation and Other company news |  | rvmd-20261008 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1628171/000162817126000004/rvmd-20261008.htm |
| 2026-09-01 | 8-K | New material agreement and New debt or financial obligation |  | rvmd-20260827 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1628171/000119312526377362/rvmd-20260827.htm |
| 2026-08-26 | 8-K | Other company news |  | rvmd-20260826 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1628171/000119312526366931/rvmd-20260826.htm |
| 2026-08-05 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Jun 30, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | rvmd-20260630 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1628171/000119312526335104/rvmd-20260630.htm |
| 2026-08-05 | 8-K | Earnings release |  | rvmd-20260805 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1628171/000119312526335039/ |
| 2026-06-22 | 8-K | Change of directors or officers and Shareholder vote results |  |  | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1628171/000119312526276718/d123125d8k.htm |
| 2026-05-06 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Mar 31, 2026 | 2026-03-31 | rvmd-20260331 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1628171/000119312526208969/rvmd-20260331.htm |
| 2026-05-06 | 8-K | Earnings release |  | rvmd-20260506 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1628171/000119312526208918/ |

Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 1628171): https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001628171&type=&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

## Risks

- High: The launch may slow after the first cohort. The company says that Q3 sales include patients who moved from its expanded access program and stock that went into the channel, and that they do not show the longer-term trend. Sales in later quarters may be lower than Q3 run rates suggest.
- High: The company has no profit and spends heavily. Research and development expense was $417.1 million in Q3 and selling, general and administrative expense was $153.3 million. It plans global launches. If sales grow slowly, it may need more money from share sales or debt.
- Medium: Royalty Pharma takes part of sales and holds a lien on the assets. The company owes tiered royalties of 4.55% of annual net sales up to $2.0 billion, with lower rates above that, and a term loan of $250.0 million with a floating rate. The sale of future royalties is a liability of about $572.3 million.
- Medium: More trials must succeed. The value depends on first-line pancreatic cancer, lung cancer and other cancers, and trials can fail or show side effects. Daraxonrasib has warnings for skin, mouth and gut effects, and for lung disease.
- Medium: Drug prices and rules can change. US payers, Medicare and Medicaid rules, and European pricing talks decide how much the company gets per patient. The company says that formal coverage policies are still developing.

## Links

- Page: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/RVMD/
- History of changes: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/RVMD/history/
- JSON with full history: https://picks.utilarium.app/data/company/RVMD.json

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