# Shell (SHEL)

Sector: Integrated oil and gas

| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Price | $98.88 |
| Intrinsic value source | Analysts |
| Data as of | 2026-11-10 |
| Next earnings | 2027-02-04 (confirmed) |

Analysts: Leaning bullish

Picks: Research only

Discount category: Close to intrinsic value

## In short

The market doubts that Shell's high 2026 earnings last after the Middle East conflict, and a plan on February 4, 2027 that keeps cash returns at normal prices can close the gap.

## Themes and gap

- Themes: Power and energy (power-energy)
- Gap type: Can close (closable)
- Why: The Capital Markets Update and Q4 2026 results on February 4, 2027 and the Raizen deadline of March 31, 2027 are dated checks that can close the gap within about a year.

## About

Shell is one of the largest integrated energy companies in the world. It produces oil and gas, and it is one of the largest sellers and traders of liquefied natural gas (LNG). It has five business segments: Integrated Gas, Upstream, Marketing, Chemicals and Products, and Renewables and Energy Solutions. Marketing sells fuels and lubricants through Shell service stations and to businesses. Oil and gas production was 2,574 thousand barrels of oil equivalent a day in Q3 2026. Shell bought ARC Resources, a Canadian gas producer, in September 2026. Shell plc is listed in London, Amsterdam and New York, and one American depositary share (ADS) is two ordinary shares. Shell reports in US dollars.

## Thesis

The market doubts that Shell's earnings in 2026 can last, because high oil and gas prices after the conflict in the Middle East helped them. Adjusted earnings were $10.8 billion in Q3 2026, up from $5.4 billion in Q3 2025. They were $27.6 billion in the first nine months of 2026, more than the $18.5 billion of all of 2025. Shell says that the Middle East conflict cut its volumes from Qatar. Press reports describe a war with Iran and disruption in the Strait of Hormuz in 2026. Investors fear three things. Prices can fall when supply from the region comes back. Growth depends on LNG and on the ARC Resources purchase, which Shell paid for partly with new shares. Large projects such as LNG Canada Phase 2 need cash for many years before they produce. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Free cash flow must pay the dividend and large buybacks, such as the $5.0 billion program of October 29, 2026, at normal prices. Net debt must keep falling from $39.7 billion at September 30, 2026. Shell must deliver its production plans and keep cash capital spending inside $23 billion to $25 billion a year. The Capital Markets Update and Q4 2026 results on February 4, 2027 give the next test, with new plans for spending and cash returns. The Raizen restructuring in Brazil, which ends if its conditions are not met by March 31, 2027, is a second test. If Shell shows that it can keep its cash returns at mid-cycle prices, the gap can close within about one year.

## Checkpoints

- Feb 4, 2027: Capital Markets Update and Q4 2026 results. Status: Pending. Watch: A plan that keeps buybacks and dividends near current levels with spending inside $23 billion to $25 billion and lower net debt passes; a cut in buybacks or much higher spending fails.
- Mar 31, 2027: Raizen restructuring deadline. Status: Pending. Watch: A completed restructuring with Shell's new money near BRL 3.5 billion passes; a larger injection, a failed plan or new losses fail.

## Balance sheet

- Cash: $36.4B
- Debt: $76.1B
- Net debt: $39.7B
- EBITDA, last 12 months: $74.0B
- Net debt / EBITDA: 0.5× (low)
- Debt due within 12 months: $8.9B

Shell has moderate debt for its size. At September 30, 2026, total debt was $76.1 billion, including lease liabilities of $34.1 billion, and $8.9 billion of the debt, including $7.0 billion of leases, was due within one year. Cash was $36.4 billion. Shell's own net debt figure, which also includes hedging items, was $39.7 billion, down from $45.7 billion at December 31, 2025. Gearing was 16.6%, or 2.7% without leases. The EBITDA figure is adjusted EBITDA over the 12 months to September 30, 2026: $61.2 billion in the first nine months of 2026 and $12.8 billion in Q4 2025. Shell took on net debt and leases of $2.5 billion with ARC Resources and repaid $1.9 billion of that debt in September 2026. In Q3 2026, Shell paid $2.2 billion of dividends and bought back $3.2 billion of shares.

As of 2026-09-30.

Sources:

- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1306965/000162828026068044/quarterlyexhibit992-q32026.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1306965/000162828026005600/q42025exhibit992.htm

## Dividends

- Dividend yield: 3.1% (last 12 months, at the current price)
- Paid per share, last 12 months: $3.0224 (4 payments)
- Current annual rate: $3.1248 ($0.7812 x 4 a year)
- Latest ex-dividend date: 2026-08-14, $0.7812 per share
- Growth over the last 5 years: 15.1% a year

Dividends per share by year: 2016: $3.76, 2017: $3.76, 2018: $3.76, 2019: $3.76, 2020: $1.913, 2021: $1.64, 2022: $1.50, 2023: $2.474, 2024: $2.752, 2025: $2.864.

Source: company filings and market data, read on 2026-11-09.

## Recent events

- 2026-10-29: Shell reported Q3 2026 results. Income was $12.1 billion and adjusted earnings were $10.8 billion, up from $5.4 billion a year earlier. Cash flow from operations was $21.0 billion and free cash flow was $16.3 billion. Net debt fell to $39.7 billion and gearing to 16.6%. Shell announced a $5.0 billion share buyback for the next quarter and kept the dividend at $0.3906 per share. In September 2026, Shell took the final investment decision on LNG Canada Phase 2, which doubles the plant to 28 million tonnes a year from the early 2030s.
- 2026-09-02: Shell completed its purchase of ARC Resources. ARC shareholders received CAD 8.20 in cash and 0.40247 Shell shares for each ARC share, and Shell issued about 228 million shares. ARC adds about 370 thousand barrels of oil equivalent a day.
- 2026-07-30: Shell reported Q2 2026 results. Adjusted earnings were $9.8 billion. Net debt fell to $41.8 billion from $52.6 billion at March 31, 2026. In June 2026, Raizen, Shell's 44% joint venture in Brazil, filed a restructuring plan that includes a capital injection by Shell of BRL 3.5 billion ($685 million).
- 2026-05-07: Shell reported Q1 2026 results. Adjusted earnings were $6.9 billion. Shell raised the quarterly dividend by about 5% to $0.3906 per share.
- 2026-02-05: Shell reported 2025 results. Adjusted earnings were $18.5 billion, down from $23.7 billion in 2024, and free cash flow was $26.1 billion. Net debt was $45.7 billion at December 31, 2025.

## Latest news and filings

- Next earnings: 2027-02-04 (confirmed by the company)

| Filed | Form | Headline | Period end | XBRL document | Link |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2026-07-30 | 6-K | Interim report for the period ended Jun 30, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | shel-20260630_d2 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1306965/000162828026050763/shel-20260630_d2.htm |
| 2026-03-12 | 20-F | Annual report for the period ended Dec 31, 2025 | 2025-12-31 | shel-20251231 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1306965/000162828026017024/shel-20251231.htm |
| 2025-07-31 | 6-K | Interim report for the period ended Jun 30, 2025 | 2025-06-30 | shel-20250630 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1306965/000130696525000031/shel-20250630.htm |
| 2025-03-25 | 20-F | Annual report for the period ended Dec 31, 2024 | 2024-12-31 | shel-20241231 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1306965/000130696525000007/shel-20241231.htm |

Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 1306965): https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001306965&type=&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

## Risks

- High: Earnings move with oil and gas prices and refining margins. Adjusted earnings were $18.5 billion in 2025 and $10.8 billion in Q3 2026 alone. When prices fall, earnings and buybacks can fall quickly.
- High: The conflict in the Middle East cut Shell's volumes from Qatar in 2026, and its Q3 2026 outlook did not include them. A new conflict can stop LNG volumes again and damage assets in the region.
- Medium: Shell expects cash capital spending of $23 billion to $25 billion in 2026, and LNG Canada Phase 2 starts only in the early 2030s. Cost overruns or delays on large projects lower returns.
- Medium: Raizen, Shell's 44% joint venture in Brazil, is in a restructuring that needs court approval. Shell may put in BRL 3.5 billion ($685 million), and its share of Raizen falls when debt becomes equity.
- Low: Climate rules and lawsuits can raise costs or limit some activities. Shell also sells assets, such as renewables and some oil fields, and the prices it gets can be low.

## Links

- Page: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/SHEL/
- History of changes: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/SHEL/history/
- JSON with full history: https://picks.utilarium.app/data/company/SHEL.json

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