# SharkNinja (SN) Sector: Household appliances | Field | Value | |---|---| | Price | $226.93 | | Market cap | $32B | | Intrinsic value source | AI estimate | | Data as of | 2026-11-12 | | Next earnings | 2027-02-10 (estimate) | Analysts: Very bullish Picks: Research only Discount category: Far above intrinsic value ## In short Investors pay more than the AI estimate for the growth of SharkNinja, and only new product categories with steady margins through 2027, after one-time tariff refunds end, can earn this price. ## Themes and gap - Themes: Tariffs and trade (trade-tariffs), Weak consumer (weak-consumer) - Gap type: Slow (slow) - Why: The Q4 2026 report in February 2027 and the outlook for 2027 show whether margins hold when tariff refunds end. ## About SharkNinja, Inc. (SharkNinja) is a product design and technology company based in Needham, Massachusetts, with more than 4,100 associates. It sells appliances under the Shark and Ninja brands in four groups: Cleaning, Cooking and Beverage, Food Preparation, and Beauty and Home Environment. It sells through retailers, online and in stores, and through distributors, in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom and other markets. In Q3 2026, net sales of the four groups were $617.2 million, $597.7 million, $485.5 million and $276.1 million. Net sales were $5,154.7 million for nine months of 2026 and $6,399.2 million for all of 2025. It has one reportable segment. Mark Barrocas is Chief Executive Officer. The ordinary shares trade on the New York Stock Exchange in US dollars. ## Thesis The market prices SharkNinja above the AI estimate, because investors pay for sales growth near 20% with higher margins after tariff costs. In Q3 2026, net sales rose 21.2% to $1,976.4 million, the second quarter in a row above 20%, and adjusted operating income rose 47.2% to $425.5 million. Part of the gain does not repeat: adjusted gross profit includes $134.3 million of refunds of tariff duties for 2026, after the US Supreme Court ruled in February 2026 that the IEEPA tariffs were not authorized. The company raised its guidance for 2026 to net sales growth of 18% to 19% and adjusted EPS of $6.65 to $6.75. For the price to be earned, three things must be true. New products, such as the Ninja Luxe Café and the Ninja HydraSense water filter, must keep growth above that of the core categories. Margins must hold without the refunds at the tariff rates the company assumes. Inventory, which rose 42.5% to $1,428.2 million, must sell in the holiday season. The next tests are the Q4 2026 report in February 2027 and the outlook for 2027. If growth slows or margins fall when the tariff refunds end, the price can fall toward the AI estimate. ## Checkpoints - Feb 10, 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 results and the outlook for 2027. Status: Pending. Watch: Adjusted EPS for 2026 lands in the guided range of $6.65 to $6.75 and the outlook for 2027 shows double-digit sales growth, and this passes; lower sales growth or lower margins fail. - May 2027 (estimate): Q1 2027 results: growth and margin without tariff refunds. Status: Pending. Watch: Net sales keep growing by more than 10% and adjusted gross margin holds without refunds, and this passes; slower sales or a lower margin fail. ## Valuation The intrinsic value for SharkNinja is an AI estimate from November 12, 2026. It is not an analyst's value. An AI research agent calculated it from the filings of SharkNinja with the SEC. The method is a multiple of earnings per share for 2027, built from net sales, an adjusted operating margin, share-based pay as a cost, net interest, a tax rate and a share count. The adjusted operating margin of the company leaves out share-based pay, so the estimate takes it off. Earnings are after interest, and the term loan is small, so the estimate makes no other debt adjustment. The Q3 2026 release (8-K, November 4, 2026) gives guidance for 2026 of net sales growth of 18.0% to 19.0%, adjusted EPS of $6.65 to $6.75 and a GAAP effective tax rate of 22.0% to 23.0%. The 10-K for 2025 gives net sales of $6,399.2 million for 2025, so the estimate takes net sales for 2026 at $7,583 million, which is the middle of the guidance. The Form 10-Q for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 gives adjusted operating income of $857.8 million on net sales of $5,154.7 million for nine months, share-based pay of $119.6 million for nine months and $42.0 million for Q3, a tax rate of 22.9% on adjusted items, net interest expense of $11.4 million for nine months, 140,911,501 ordinary shares outstanding at October 29, 2026, and 565,942 shares of dilution in Q3. The estimate adds the dilution, for 141.48 million shares. Adjusted gross profit for Q3 includes $134.3 million of refunds of tariff duties for 2026, which will not come again, so the estimate takes margins for 2027 below the 16.6% of nine months. It assumes the tariff rates of the release stay in place. The net sales for 2027, the margins, the share-based pay, the interest, the tax rate of 22.9% and the multiples are assumptions. The low case assumes net sales of $8,038 million, up 6% from 2026, an adjusted operating margin of 12.5%, share-based pay of $175 million and interest of $20 million, because tariffs or weak demand squeeze margins. EPS is $4.41. At 17 times it gives $75.02 per share. The base case assumes net sales of $8,417 million, up 11%, an adjusted operating margin of 14.5%, share-based pay of $190 million and interest of $15 million. EPS is $5.53. At 22 times it gives $121.75 per share. The high case assumes net sales of $8,720 million, up 15%, an adjusted operating margin of 16.5%, share-based pay of $200 million and interest of $10 million, because new categories keep growth high. EPS is $6.70. At 26 times it gives $174.11 per share. The estimate assumes weights of 25%, 50% and 25%. The weighted intrinsic value is $123.16 per share. As of 2026-11-12. Sources: - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1957132/000195713226000055/exhibit991pressreleaseofsh.htm - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1957132/000195713226000056/sharkninja-20260930.htm - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1957132/000195713226000015/sharkninja-20251231.htm ## Balance sheet At September 30, 2026, SharkNinja had cash and cash equivalents of $487.8 million, against $777.3 million at December 31, 2025. Total debt, before deferred financing costs, was $708.8 million. It is a term loan with quarterly payments that matures on July 20, 2028. The company had no borrowings on its revolving credit facility, and $495.3 million was available. Net debt was about $221 million. Inventories were $1,428.2 million, against $1,002.2 million at December 31, 2025. It held a tariff refund receivable of $186.1 million. Capital spending is guided at $190 million to $210 million for 2026. In nine months, it bought back $169.7 million of shares. As of 2026-09-30. Sources: - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1957132/000195713226000056/sharkninja-20260930.htm - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1957132/000195713226000055/exhibit991pressreleaseofsh.htm ## Dividends SharkNinja does not pay a dividend. Source: company filings and market data, read on 2026-11-13. ## Recent events - 2026-11-04: SharkNinja reported Q3 2026 results. Net sales rose 21.2% to $1,976.4 million. Net income rose 79.3% to $338.4 million, and adjusted net income rose 55.1% to $330.9 million. Adjusted EBITDA rose 45.7% to $461.3 million, at 23.3% of net sales. Cooking and Beverage sales rose 36.6% and Beauty and Home Environment sales rose 45.8%. - 2026-11-04: SharkNinja raised its guidance for 2026 to net sales growth of 18% to 19%, adjusted EPS of $6.65 to $6.75 and adjusted EBITDA of $1,380 million to $1,391 million. The guidance assumes tariff rates of at least 10% for Indonesia, Malaysia and Cambodia and 12.5% for China, Vietnam and Thailand for the rest of 2026. - 2026-11-04: SharkNinja booked $243.8 million of refund claims for IEEPA duties as a cut in cost of sales in Q3, and $45.2 million as an amount payable to factory partners. It expects to book about $35.8 million more in Q4. The company excludes the refunds for 2025 duties from adjusted results. At September 30, 2026, it had a tariff refund receivable of $186.1 million. - 2026-11-04: SharkNinja said that in nine months it bought back 1,301,500 shares for $169.7 million, at an average price of $130.38, under its $750.0 million program from February 11, 2026. In Q3 it bought 293,132 shares for $50.0 million, at an average price of $170.57. - 2026-07-13: SharkNinja said in an 8-K that its board allowed a one-time exception to its trading rules so that Chairman CJ Xuning Wang could sell part of his shares on July 10, 2026 to an existing institutional investor. ## Latest news and filings - Last earnings: 2026-11-04 (8-K: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1957132/000195713226000055/) - Next earnings: 2027-02-10 (expected; the company has not confirmed it) | Filed | Form | Headline | Period end | XBRL document | Link | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026-11-04 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Sep 30, 2026 | 2026-09-30 | sharkninja-20260930 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1957132/000195713226000056/sharkninja-20260930.htm | | 2026-11-04 | 8-K | Earnings release | | sharkninja-20261104 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1957132/000195713226000055/ | | 2026-08-05 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Jun 30, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | sharkninja-20260630 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1957132/000195713226000048/sharkninja-20260630.htm | | 2026-08-05 | 8-K | Earnings release | | sharkninja-20260805 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1957132/000195713226000047/ | | 2026-07-13 | 8-K | Other company news | | | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1957132/000110465926082783/tm2620293d1_8k.htm | | 2026-06-18 | 8-K | Change to shareholder rights or bylaws and Shareholder vote results | | sharkninja-20260618 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1957132/000195713226000040/sharkninja-20260618.htm | | 2026-05-06 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Mar 31, 2026 | 2026-03-31 | sharkninja-20260331 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1957132/000195713226000035/sharkninja-20260331.htm | | 2026-05-06 | 8-K | Earnings release | | sharkninja-20260506 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1957132/000195713226000033/ | | 2026-03-02 | 10-K | Annual report for the period ended Dec 31, 2025 | 2025-12-31 | sharkninja-20251231 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1957132/000195713226000015/sharkninja-20251231.htm | | 2026-02-11 | 8-K | Earnings release and Other company news | | sharkninja-20260211 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1957132/000195713226000009/ | Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 1957132): https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001957132&type=&dateb=&owner=include&count=40 ## Risks - High: Tariffs can change costs fast. The outlook assumes tariff rates of 10% to 12.5% on its main supply countries. The IEEPA refunds are one-time, and part of the refund order is under appeal by the US government. - Medium: Inventory is high. It rose 42.5% to $1,428.2 million since December 31, 2025. Weak holiday demand can force price cuts and charges. - Medium: Growth needs new products. Net sales have grown by double digits for 14 quarters, and Q3 growth came from new products such as the Ninja Luxe Café and the Ninja Crispi. A product that fails to sell can slow growth. - Medium: The company depends on suppliers and on consumer spending. A drop in consumer demand or a supplier problem can cut sales and margins. - Low: Share-based pay is rising. It was $42.0 million in Q3, against $9.1 million a year before, and the company excludes it from adjusted results. ## Links - Page: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/SN/ - History of changes: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/SN/history/ - JSON with full history: https://picks.utilarium.app/data/company/SN.json > Picks is a personal record of stock picks. It gives general opinions about stocks, including a "Top pick" label. They are not tailored to your needs, goals or risk tolerance. Kevin is not a registered adviser and relies on the general-advice exemption in Canadian securities law (NI 31-103 s.8.25). Do your own research, or ask a registered adviser. Kevin may hold any stock on this site. Prices, intrinsic values and ratings can be delayed or wrong; check the original source. Full disclaimer: /disclaimer/.