# Sandisk (SNDK)

Sector: Memory chips

| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Price | $886.51 |
| Market cap | $126B |
| Intrinsic value source | Analysts |
| Data as of | 2026-11-10 |
| Next earnings | 2027-01-28 (estimate) |

Analysts: Bullish

Picks: Research only

Discount category: Close to intrinsic value

## In short

The market doubts that Sandisk can keep record memory profits through the cycle, and data center growth with multi-year supply agreements that hold prices into 2027 can close the gap.

## Themes and gap

- Themes: AI supplier (ai-supplier)
- Gap type: Slow (slow)
- Why: Each quarterly report, starting with the Q2 fiscal 2027 report expected in late January 2027, shows whether prices and margins hold, but the full memory cycle takes several years.

## About

Sandisk designs, makes and sells NAND flash memory products: solid-state drives for data centers and PCs, embedded memory for phones, cars and other devices, and memory cards and USB drives for consumers. Western Digital spun it off as an independent public company on February 21, 2025. It makes its flash wafers through Flash Ventures, its joint ventures with Kioxia in Japan, which are scheduled to run until December 31, 2034. It reports revenue in three end markets. In Q1 fiscal 2027, which ended on October 2, 2026, revenue was $11.0 billion: Datacenter $4.8 billion, Edge $5.8 billion and Consumer $0.4 billion. Revenue was $20.25 billion in fiscal 2026, which ended on July 3, 2026. Its shares trade on the Nasdaq. The board approved an eight-for-one stock split, and trading on a split-adjusted basis is expected to start on November 20, 2026.

## Thesis

The market doubts that Sandisk can keep its record profits, because memory prices rise and fall in cycles. Revenue rose to $11.0 billion in Q1 fiscal 2027 from $2.3 billion a year earlier, and the gross margin rose to 85.0% from 29.8%. In fiscal 2025, the company had a net loss of $1.64 billion. The market expects that more NAND supply can bring prices down again, as in past cycles. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Datacenter revenue, $4.8 billion in Q1 fiscal 2027, must keep growing as AI data centers buy more solid-state drives. The multi-year supply agreements with customers, which Sandisk calls New Business Models, must keep volumes and prices stable when the market turns. Sandisk must keep returning cash: it bought back $5.0 billion of stock in Q1 fiscal 2027 and has no debt. The Q2 fiscal 2027 report, expected in late January 2027, tests the guidance of $12.2 billion to $12.6 billion of revenue. If profits stay high through 2027, the gap can close, but a fall in NAND prices can stop that at any time.

## Checkpoints

- Jan 28, 2027 (estimate): Q2 fiscal 2027 results: prices and margin. Status: Pending. Watch: Revenue of $12.2 billion or more and a gross margin near 85% pass; revenue below the guidance or a falling margin fail.
- Apr 2027 (estimate): Q3 fiscal 2027 results: the cycle. Status: Pending. Watch: Revenue and gross margin near the Q2 fiscal 2027 level pass; a clear fall in NAND prices or margin fails.

## Balance sheet

- Cash: $5.1B
- Debt: $0.0M
- Net cash: $5.1B

Sandisk has no debt. At October 2, 2026, cash and cash equivalents were $5.14 billion, and the company had $1.5 billion of available capacity under its revolving credit facility, with nothing drawn. It repaid its Term Loan B early. Free cash flow was $6.31 billion in Q1 fiscal 2027, and the company used $5.0 billion to buy back about 3.2 million shares. Contract liabilities, mostly advance payments from customers under the long-term agreements, were $1.53 billion. Shareholders' equity was $18.13 billion. Shares outstanding were 142.3 million on October 26, 2026, before the eight-for-one split.

As of 2026-10-02.

Sources:

- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2023554/000162828026068243/sndkq1-27ex991xpressrelease.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2023554/000162828026068601/sndk-20261002.htm

## Dividends

Sandisk does not pay a dividend.

Source: company filings and market data, read on 2026-11-09.

## Recent events

- 2026-10-29: Sandisk reported Q1 fiscal 2027 results. Revenue rose 23% from Q4 to $11.0 billion, and the gross margin was 85.0%. Datacenter revenue rose 61% to $4.8 billion. Non-GAAP diluted EPS was $49.51. The company bought back about 3.2 million shares for $5.0 billion. For Q2 fiscal 2027, it expects revenue of $12.2 billion to $12.6 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $55.00 to $57.00 before the split. The board approved an eight-for-one stock split, effective November 19, 2026.
- 2026-08-05: Sandisk reported Q4 fiscal 2026 results. Revenue rose 51% from Q3 to $8.97 billion, and fiscal 2026 revenue rose 175% to $20.25 billion. Fiscal 2026 non-GAAP diluted EPS was $70.88. The company signed five more multi-year agreements with customers, and the board approved an additional $14 billion buyback program.
- 2026-04-30: Sandisk reported Q3 fiscal 2026 results. Revenue was $5.95 billion, the gross margin was 78.4% and non-GAAP diluted EPS was $23.41. The company announced its first five long-term customer agreements, which it calls New Business Models.
- 2026-03-25: Sandisk agreed to buy about 139 million shares of Nanya Technology, about 3.9% of the company, for about $1.0 billion. The two companies also signed a multi-year agreement for Nanya to supply DRAM products to Sandisk.
- 2026-01-29: Sandisk reported Q2 fiscal 2026 results. On the same day, in connection with the agreements that extend the Flash Ventures joint ventures to December 31, 2034, it signed an agreement with Kioxia under which it will pay Kioxia $1.2 billion from 2026 through 2029 for manufacturing services and continued supply.

## Latest news and filings

- Last earnings: 2026-10-29 (8-K: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2023554/000162828026068243/)
- Next earnings: 2027-01-28 (expected; the company has not confirmed it)

| Filed | Form | Headline | Period end | XBRL document | Link |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2026-10-30 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Oct 2, 2026 | 2026-10-02 | sndk-20261002 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2023554/000162828026068601/sndk-20261002.htm |
| 2026-10-29 | 8-K | Earnings release and Other company news |  | sndk-20261029 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2023554/000162828026068243/sndk-20261029.htm |
| 2026-09-16 | 8-K | Change of directors or officers |  | sndk-20260910 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2023554/000162828026062267/sndk-20260910.htm |
| 2026-09-11 | 8-K | New material agreement |  |  | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2023554/000119312526389293/d138343d8k.htm |
| 2026-08-17 | 10-K | Annual report for the period ended Jul 3, 2026 | 2026-07-03 | sndk-20260703 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2023554/000162828026057406/sndk-20260703.htm |
| 2026-08-05 | 8-K | Earnings release and Other company news |  | sndk-20260805 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2023554/000162828026053346/sndk-20260805.htm |
| 2026-05-15 | 8-K | Other company news |  |  | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2023554/000119312526224694/d157363d8k.htm |
| 2026-05-01 | 10-Q | Quarterly report for the period ended Apr 3, 2026 | 2026-04-03 | sndk-20260403 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2023554/000162828026029401/sndk-20260403.htm |
| 2026-04-30 | 8-K | Earnings release and Other company news |  | sndk-20260430 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2023554/000162828026028879/sndk-20260430.htm |
| 2026-03-25 | 8-K | New material agreement and Other company news |  |  | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2023554/000119312526122705/d136592d8k.htm |

Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 2023554): https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0002023554&type=&dateb=&owner=include&count=40

## Risks

- High: NAND prices rise and fall in cycles. The gross margin was 85.0% in Q1 fiscal 2027, but it was 29.8% a year earlier, and the company had a net loss in fiscal 2025. New supply from rivals can bring prices and profits down fast.
- Medium: Sandisk depends on Flash Ventures, its joint ventures with Kioxia in Japan, for its wafers. It must pay half of their fixed costs whatever output it buys, and it guarantees half of their equipment leases.
- Medium: Sales to data center customers grow fast and depend on AI spending by a small number of large buyers. A cut in their spending would lower volumes and prices.
- Medium: Trade rules and tariffs between the United States, China and other countries can limit sales or raise costs.

## Links

- Page: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/SNDK/
- History of changes: https://picks.utilarium.app/company/SNDK/history/
- JSON with full history: https://picks.utilarium.app/data/company/SNDK.json

> Picks is a personal record of stock picks. It gives general opinions about stocks, including a "Top pick" label. They are not tailored to your needs, goals or risk tolerance. Kevin is not a registered adviser and relies on the general-advice exemption in Canadian securities law (NI 31-103 s.8.25). Do your own research, or ask a registered adviser. Kevin may hold any stock on this site. Prices, intrinsic values and ratings can be delayed or wrong; check the original source. Full disclaimer: /disclaimer/.